Transcript Slide 1

Irrigation in Andhra Pradesh:
Trends and Turning Points
IWMI
Upali Amarasinghe
BK Anand, Madar Samad, A. Narayanmoorthy
Outline
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Trends and tuning points of AP irrigated area
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Net irrigated area & source wise irrigation
Gross irrigated are , Cropping patterns
Irrigation trends in Polavaram command area
districts
Trend Analysis
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Focuses on four time periods
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1970 - 1987
1988 - 1996
1997 – 2001
2002 - 2004
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1988 – Significant change
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1997 - Enacted “Farmer Manage Irrigation
Systems Act [FMISA]”
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2002-2004 Wide spread droughts
Irrigation- Why is it important ?
Andhra Pradesh in comparison to other states has the
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4th largest land area
5th largest population
3rd in per capita income of all states
4th largest contributor to the national economy and
AP Agriculture has
• 25% of the GDP from the agriculture sector
• 70% of the population have agriculture depended livelihoods
• 43% of the crop lands are under irrigation
AP Irrigation contributes to
• 66% or more to the agriculture output
Irrigation in AP: What has happened?
Temporal growth - Net irrigated Area
• Gradual significant growth
before 1987
Area (mha)
5.0
4.0
3.0
• Significant abrupt shift in
1987
2.0
1.0
0.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
• No significant change
between 1987-1996
Source: GOAP 2007
• Significant increasing trend
after 1996
• Severe drop due to droughts
Irrigation in AP: What has happened?
IAt  a  a Tt  a I
a T

0 1
2 t[T  1987] 3 t[T  1987]
a I
a T
 a RFt  e
4 t[T  1996] 5 t[T  1996] 6
Andhra Pradesh Costal Andhra
Pradesh
Rayalaseema
region
Coefficient T-sta- Coefficient T-sta- Coefficien T-stat- Coefficie T-stattistic
tistic
t
istic
nt
istic
Variable
Constant
T
I(year>1987)
T(year>1987)
I (year>1996)
T(year>1996)
Rainfall (May-Oct)
R2
Telangana
region
a0
a1
a20
a22
a31
a32
a4
-60.1
0.032
0.500
-0.053
0.129
0.062
0.0006
94%
5.6*
5.9*
4.6*
2.8*
0.9
1.9*
6.0*
29.4 5.7*
0.016 5.4*
0.067 1.2
-0.017 1.8***
0.038 0.5
-0.009 -0.5
0.0002 2.8*
81%
45.1
0.023
0.229
-0.031
-0.010
0.066
0.006
93%
6.5*
6.4*
3.1*
-2.5*
-0.1
3.1*
5.7*
4.9 2.0*
-0.002 -1.8**
0.106 4.0*
-0.001 -0.2
0.060 2.0*
0.004
0.5
0.0001 2.7*
82%
Spatial Trends – Net irrigated area
• Telangana NIA increased both
before and after 1987
Spatial variation- Net Irrigated Area
Area (mha)
2.5
• Coastal Andhra Pradesh NIA
increased before 1987, but no
significant change after 1987
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1975
Source: GOAP 2007
1980
1985
Costal AP
1990
1995
Telangana
2000
2005
Rayalaseema
• Rayalaseema NIA decreased
before 1987. A slight but
statistically not significant
increasing trend after 1987
• Rainfall variation was an
influencing factor in three regions
How did different sources of irrigation
contribute?
Source wise net irrigated area in Andhra Pradesh
1970
1980
4%
3%
17%
1990
2000
4%
5%
22%
49%
30%
49%
37%
30%
43%
43%
26%
15%
23%
Canals
Tank
Groundwater
Other sources
Source: GOAP 2007
• Biggest gain - Groundwater irrigation – Increased 17% to 43%
• Largest decline- Tank irrigation - 30% to 15%
• Surface irrigation declining - 49% to 37%
How did canal irrigated area change?
2.0
Net canal irrigated
area (Mha)
250
Investment in major & medium irrigation
systems and canal irrigated area
1.6
150
1.2
100
0.8
50
0.4
0
0.0
Investments
(Billion INRS)
200
• Investment is increasing,
• But NSIA has
– increased in the 1970s/
1980’s
– Decreased in early 1990’s
– Stagnated in the late
1990’s
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: GOAP 2007
Investments
Net surface irrigated area
• NSIA increased before 1987 in
Coastal Andhra and Telangana
Spatail variation
Net canal irrigated
area(mha)
1.6
1.2
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0.8
0.4
0.0
1970
1975
Source: GOAP 2007
1980
1985
Costal AP
1990
1995
Telangana
2000
2005
Rayalaseema
NIA decreased between 19871996
• But the decline is arrested after
1996
• NIA in Rayalaseema is
continuously decreasing
Net tank irrigated area (mha)
How did net tank irrigated area change?
• Tank irrigated area decreased
both before and after 1987
• But there is a significant shift in
Temporal growth
1.5
1.0
1987.
0.5
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: GOAP 2007
• In general tank irrigated area
decrease over all time periods in
all three regions.
Spatail variation
Net tank irrigated
area(mha)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1970
1975
Source: GOAP 2007
1980
1985
Costal AP
1990
1995
Telangana
2000
2005
Rayalaseema
• However, the shift in 1987 was
significant in Costal Andhra
Pradesh and Rayalaseema
region
How did net groundwater irrigated area change?
• Significant increase before 1987
Net groundwater irrigated
area (mha)
Temporal growth
2.5
• Significant acceleration after
1987.
2.0
1.5
• Rainfall was not a factor before
2002
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Source: GOAP 2007
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Net groundwater irrigated
area (mha)
Spatial variation
1.2
1.0
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0.8
0.6
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0.4
0.2
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0.0
1970
1975
Source: GOAP 2007
1980
1985
Costal AP
1990
1995
Telangana
2000
2005
Rayalaseema
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NGWIA growth was fastest in the
Telangana region
Shift in 1987 was significant in all
regions
NGWIA in Telangana increasing at
an increasing rate.
Growth was independent of rainfall
until 2002.
2002-2004 had a drop in Telangana
due to below average rainfall
How did well irrigated area change?
Area (mha)
1.5
Net irrigatd area under tubewells and dugwells in
Andhra Pradesh
• Tubewell area is increasing
and
• Dugwell area is decreasing
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Dugwells
2000
2005
Tubewells
Gross irrigated area (mha)
How did Gross Irrigated Area change?
GIA
Temporal growth
8
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Increased before 1987
6
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had a significant shift in 1987
4
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secreased in 1987-1996
2
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stagnated in 1997-2001
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affected in 2002-2004 due to droughts
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Gross irrigated area(mha)
Source: GOAP 2007
GIA
Spatail variation
3.2
2.4
1.6
0.8
0.0
1970
1975
Source: GOAP 2007
1980
1985
Costal AP
1990
1995
Telangana
2000
2005
Rayalaseema
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Increased before 1987
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had a significant shift in 1987
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Decreased in 1987-1996
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Stagnated in 1997-2001
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Droughts affected 2002-2004
How did groundwater irrigation contributing to GIA change?
Factor
Constant
(a0)
NSIAii (a3)
Regression analysis with all districts (23)
19701970
1980
1990
2000
2000
0.009
0.051 0.041 0.042
-0.17
1.32
1.32
1.19
1.29
1.39
NTIAii (a4)
1.18
1.14
1.01
1.19
1.14
NTWIAii
(a5)
NOWIAii
(a6)
Rainfall (a7)
R2
1.95
2.26
2.57
2.46
1.92
1.39
1.62
1.55
1.41
1.44
-0.0001
92%
-0.001
98%
-0.001 -0.001
95%
93%
0.001
85%
• Net groundwater irrigated area had a significant contribution to GIA
growth
• Contribution is decreasing in recent decades
Recent crop diversification trends?
Cropping Patterns - % of Gross Irrigated Area
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
Food crops
92.7
92.0 86.6 87.7 84.8
Rice
77.8
77.5 71.4 67.1 58.9
Maize
1.3
1.7
1.6
2.7
4.2
Sugarcane
3.2
4.0
4.1
6.4
7.1
Fruits&veg.
6.2
7.0
9.8
Non-food crops
7.3
8.0 13.4 12.3 15.2
Chilli
2.1
1.7
2.8
2.8
3.3
Tobacco
0.5
0.6
1.6
3.6
4.3
Cotton
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.6
0.6
• Food crop area decreasing; Non food crop area increasing
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Rice area is decreasing fast.
Maize, a feed crop, area is increasing
Fruits and vegetable area increasing
Sugarcane area in creasing
General findings
• Groundwater play a crucial role in AP irrigation
• Distress in groundwater irrigated areas is increasing,
especially in rainfall deficit years
• Sustain GW area, recharge programs is necessary in the
short-medium term
What needs to be done?
• Needs studies on
– Reservoir siltation and canal irrigated area loss
– Gap between potential and actual irrigated area
– Potential artificial recharge from thousands of AP tanks
– Implications of water demand due to cropping pattern changes
– Implications of crop diversification on the livestock economy
– Water demand of domestic, industrial, environmental sectors
– Additional water resources management & development needs
for meeting AP water futures
– Returns to investments in the irrigated sector
– Future investments needs – medium and long term
Polavaram command area districts
• Command area is located in Vishakapatnam, East
Godavari, West Godavari and Krishna
• 13% of the geographical area of AP
• 15% of the net sown area
• 24% of the net irrigated area
• 40% of the net surface irrigated area
• 17% of the net tank irrigated area
• 18% of the net tubewell irrigated area
• 12 percent of net groundwater irrigated area
• 28% of the gross irrigated area
Polavaram command area districts
• 155% irrigation intensity
• 166% and 168% irrigation intensity in East and West
Godavari
• 64% of the crop area is irrigated
• 63 and 88% of the crop area irrigated in East and West
Godavari
Thank you