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IBM Almaden Institute
2008 Almaden Institute
Innovating With Information
May 8, 2008
July 17, 2015
© 2008 IBM Corporation
IBM Almaden Institute
IBM Recognizes The Role Of IT Is Emerging In Energy and
Climate Change
The Bad News: IT accounts for
2% of global CO2 emissions
The Good News: IT can significantly
contribute to control and reduce the
98% of CO2 emissions caused by
other activities and industries
Source: Gartner, Green IT, October 12, 2007
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IBM Almaden Institute
IBM Growth Platform Applies Innovation To Help Clients
Grow In A Carbon Conscious World
Intelligent Utility Networks
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Efficient energy transmission & distribution networks
Sustainable mobility solutions
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Carbon Management
Enterprise Carbon Footprint Management
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 Reduce usage, reduce outages
 Improved grid management
Reduce traffic congestion
Reduce CO2 emissions
Increase mass transit usage
Reduce energy usage
Improve environment
Strategy
Customer and product
Supply Chain
People
IT
Property and buildings
Information
Recycling
Waste management
End of life services
Energy Efficient
Technologies &
Services
Advanced
Water Management
Green Systems/Data Centers
IT facilities infrastructure efficiency
IT operations efficiency
Active energy management
Monitoring and verification of
efficiency goals
 Demand-side efficiency
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Sustainable Water Networks
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Flood avoidance
Weather event management
Improved water quality
Reduced water usage
© 2008 IBM Corporation
IBM Almaden Institute
Five Historical Waves of Economic & Social Transformation
Installation
Irruption
Crash
Frenzy
Deployment
Synergy
Maturity
1771
Panic
1797
• Formation of Mfg. industry
• Repeal of Corn Laws opening 1829
trade
• Standards on gauge, time
• Catalog sales companies
• Economies of scale
1873
• Urban development
• Support for interventionism
1920
• Build-out of Interstate
highways
• IMF, World Bank, BIS
1974
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The Industrial
Revolution
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Age of Steam
and Railways
1829
Panic
1847
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Age of Steel, Electricity
and Heavy Engineering
1875
Depression
1893
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Age of Oil, Automobiles
and Mass Production
1908
Crash
1929
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Age of Information and
Telecommunications
1971
Dot.com
Collapse
Coming period of
Institutional Adjustment
Source: Perez, C., “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital”, 2002
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© 2008 IBM Corporation
IBM Almaden Institute
In the Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith shows that specialization in
“The Pin Factory” depends on the size of the market
 A visit to a 1776 pin factory shows a process under one roof in which the
unschooled worker, with no access to its special machines, would be lucky to
turn out a single pin a day.
Draw
out
wire
Straighten
wire
Cut
wire
Point
wire
Grind
top to
receive
head
Step
#1
make
head
Step
#2
make
head
Step
#3
make
head
Assemble
head to
wire
Whiten
pin
Insert
in
paper
holder
 With specialization, ten to fifteen men can make twelve pounds in a day.
– There may be 4,000 pins to a pound; therefore ten men can make 48,000 pins a day, or
nearly 5,000 pins apiece. Every two weeks; a million pins.
 Because the business must cover its fixed costs, the extent of the
market, the scale of the business, and how much the business can sell
determines the degree of specialization.
 To Adam Smith, this had mainly to do with transportation costs.
 “The division of labor is limited by the extent of the market.”
Source: David Warsh; Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations, A Story of Economic Discovery; (W.W. Norton & Company, New York, 2006).
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© 2008 IBM Corporation
IBM Almaden Institute
Markets for technology allows specialization to enhance
innovation and the competitive position of players in the markets
for products and services
Markets for Technology
 These are markets for transactions in licensed
intellectual property and close substitutes.
– Know-how is often required to provide the full
value of the licensed technology.
– Often these transactions involve detailed
contracts and may be embedded in alliances.
 Markets for new technology, as opposed to
existing technology, has been termed markets
for innovation.
– These transactions include agreement to
conduct activities leading to future technologies
developments that will be exchanged or jointly
owned.
– This is typically the market for R&D,
technological joint ventures, and collaborations.
Markets for Products and Services
 These are traditional markets for
products and services
– Transactions are arms-length,
anonymous, and involve the exchange
of cash for a good or service.
– Knowledge assets are increasingly
important.
– Knowledge is typically embodied in
created or acquired IP, skilled labor and
intangible assets.
Source: Ashish Aurora, Andrea Fosfuri, and Alfonso Gambardella; Markets for Technology, The Economics of Innovation and Corporate Strategy; (MIT Press, 2001)
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Asymmetric information marks contracting -- which is notoriously
difficult -- in markets for technology
 Arm’s-length contracts for know-how are
marked by double-sided, moral hazard
problems, arising from asymmetric
information.
 Efficient technology contracts can be written
by exploiting the complementarity between
know-how and any other technology inputs
that the licensor can use as a “hostage.”
 Stronger IP rights can enhance the efficiency
of technology transfers, and encourage the
diffusion of technology, including parts of the
technology that patents do not protect.
 Strong IP rights also encourage investments
in small specialized firms with strong
dynamic capabilities and ability to innovate –
The Global Entrepreneur
Technical Services are Indicators of
the Provision of Know-how
2.0
**
Equipment
Patent
Plant
1.5
**
1.0
**
**
**
0.5
**
0.0
R&D
-0.5
Quality Control
Training
** Coefficient estimates significantly different from zero at the 5% level.
Source: Ashish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri, and Alfonso Gambardella; Markets for Technology, The Economics of Innovation and Corporate Strategy; (MIT Press, 2001) and Ashish Arora and
Robert Merges; “Specialized Supply Firms, Property Rights and Frim Boundaries;” Industrial and Corporate Change, 2004, Volume 13, Number 3, pp. 451-475.
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© 2008 IBM Corporation