Transcript Slide Title - University of Bath

Study on the economic effects of the
2003 heat wave on transport
METROECONOMICA
Economic and Environmental Consultants
Alistair Hunt
Metroeconomica
& University of Bath
Structure of talk
 Context of study
 Role of historical analogues in climate change impacts
research
 Impacts and costs of Summer 2003 on roads in UK
 Lessons for the future
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Context of study
 Initially for UKCIP – Costing case study of 2003
Summer for Cambridgeshire roads – with Chris Capps
(Cambs. County Council)
 Defra wanted UK total costs of Summer 2003 
expanded geographical (and impact) coverage
 10 August 2003, record temp - Faversham (Kent)
reporting the highest at 38.5 °C.
 Fourth warmest summer period on record
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4
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Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance
Central England summer
temperature
Baseline (1961-90)
31oC has 1% chance [I day
per summer]
2080s, medium-high
emissions
31oC has 11% chance
[11 days per summer]
39oC has 1% chance
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Changes in average precipitation - Summer
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Changes in average soil moisture content (2050s)
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Summer 2003 impacts on roads
 high temperatures - deformations in the surface of roads,
 Type of road influences susceptibility to high temperatures,
- asphalt and concrete behave in different ways.
 Black surfaces melted and led to wheel rutting during
summer of 2003. Causes aggregate to subside and the road
to lose its grip (road-stone polishing).
 (Other impacts):
 cars with air conditioning had higher fuel use during the period;
 vehicles were more susceptible to break-down – particularly
from over heating.
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Summer 2003 - Cambridgeshire
 Fens in Cambridgeshire made up of peat-containing wetland
 Subsidence due to the desiccation and shrinkage of the peat
deposits
 Cambridgeshire County Council spent > £19 million on
scheduled highway maintenance schemes.
 Large number of additional structural maintenance schemes
in need of urgent attention as a result of drought. Cost of
schemes = £3.5 million.
 Additional £1.1 million spent on emergency repairs of the
highway due to cracking and deformation, which without
attention would have left the roads in a dangerous
condition.
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Summer 2003 – UK-wide
 Assumptions/limitations
 Quantify costs associated with road subsidence.
 Incidence confined to roads in management of local authorities
Assumed to be because A-roads and Motorways built to
different construction specification and therefore less
vulnerable to subsidence.
 Supporting this assumption, no additional funds were
requested by UK Highways Agency for subsidence repair work
following summer of 2003.
 No estimates of time loss values and other WTP to avoid
damage, e.g. to vehicles, as a result of road subsidence.  use
restoration costs to proxy for impact costs
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Summer 2003 – UK-wide costs
 Costs split between local authority and central government:
 local authorities have access to emergency running costs
cover under 'Bellwin Scheme' in LG and Housing Act 1989
up to 85% of overall costs, <2 Months.
 If significant damage > 2 months months - DfT considers
contingency funding
 DfT policy: contribution to capital costs of reconstruction,
though LA to spend > 15% of annual capital road
maintenance grant
 In this instance a number of counties, including Wiltshire,
Surrey, Bedfordshire, Suffolk and Norfolk were not eligible
for DfT additional support.
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UK Regional road subsidence costs – Summer 2003
Road damage costs
Damage (£m)
50.00
40.00
Total Damage cost (£m)
30.00
Central Govt. contribn.
(£m)
20.00
10.00
0.00
SE
E
EM
SW
Total
Region
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UK County road subsidence cost shares – Summer 2003
Bedfordshire
Surrey
Bucks
Wiltshire
Suffolk Norfolk
Peterborough
East Sussex
Hampshire
Isle of Wight
West Sussex
Kent
Lincolnshire
Cambridgeshire
Essex
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Costs to all transport modes – Summer 2003
Mode
Impacts in summer 2003
Rail
Speed restrictions: passenger delay
£ 2.2 million (a)
Rail buckles: additional maintenance
£1.3 million (b)
Road
Subsidence
£40.6 million (c)
Underground
Changes in demand
Health effects
Valuation
£0.5 million
< £0.01 million
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Welfare Costs (Benefits) of Hot Weather
Event of Summer 2003 in UK
Sector
2003
£m
Health
41 (14 - 2604)
Energy*
80
Agriculture (Arable crops)**
88
Transport
46.6
Retail
+3.2
Water
-
Tourism
Built Environment
38 (23-53)
124
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Lessons for the future:
Avoiding future damages – examples of adaptation
 Reactive: repair regime as now
 Proactive: up-grade road surfaces further from current
British Standard (revised after hot summer of 1995).
 Proactive Tree felling since trees remove moisture
from soil and if close to road actually deform the road.
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Lessons for the future (cont.)
Policy
 Public bodies need to prepare for greater call on repair
funds – if surfaces and road structures likely to remain
vulnerable
 Funding rules may need to be revisited
Research
 Since more pressure on funding likely, more attention
on justification likely e.g. WTP to avoid time delays,
frequency of events etc.
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