BG’s experience of privatisation in the UK & overseas
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Transcript BG’s experience of privatisation in the UK & overseas
Update On The
ROK Energy
Sector and The
ROK LEAP Model
May 13, 2005
I. Update on the ROK Energy Sector
II.The ROK LEAP Model
Major Energy & Economic Indicatior
Indicator
1981
1990
1995
2002
2004
Avg. Annual Growth Rate (%)
‘81-‘90
Primary Energy
Consumption
‘90-‘04
‘81-‘04
45.7
93.2
150.4
208.6
220.8
8.2
6.4
7.1
Per Capita Energy
Consumption (toe)
1.18
2.17
3.34
4.38
4.58
7.0
5.5
6.1
Energy/GDP (toe/1,000
USD)
0.29
0.27
0.31
0.31
0.28
-0.8
0.3
-0.2
135.9
239.0
366.9
466.2
-
6.5
(‘90-‘02)
(‘81-‘02)
5.7
5.8
3.51
5.57
8.14
9.79
-
5.3
(‘90-‘02)
(‘81-‘02)
4.8
4.8
GDP (trillion won)
122.4
263.4
377.4
524.7
566.2
8.9
5.6
6.9
Population (million)
38.7
42.9
45.1
47.6
48.2
1.1
0.84
0.96
(million toe)
CO2 Emissions
(million t-CO2)
CO2 Emissions
Per Capita (t-CO2)
Note: GDP is constant value of 1995.
Consumption Shares by Source(2004)
2004
220.8 mil. toe
Nuclear
14.8%
Firew ood &
Others
2.0%
Hydro
0.7%
LNG
12.9%
Petroleum
45.6%
Coal
24.1%
Trend of Primary Energy Consumption by Source
Primary Energy Consumption
(mil. toe)
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
70
73
76
Coal
79
Petroleum
82
85
LNG
88
Hydro
91
Nuclear
94
97
2000
2003
Firewood & Others
Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902004, %)
• Oil : 58.1 53.8 45.6
• Coal : 33.3 26.2 24.1
• LNG : 0 3.2 12.9
• Nuclear : 1.6 14.2 14.8
Final Energy Consumption by Sector
2004
166.7 mil. toe
Transport
20.7%
Public &
Others
2.1%
Industrial
55.8%
Residential/
Com m ercial
21.4%
Trend in Consumption Shares (198119902004, %)
• Industrial : 44.948.155.8
• Rsd. & Cmrcl : 40.729.321.4
• Transport : 9.618.920.7
• Public & Other : 4.83.72.1
Overseas Energy Dependency
(Bil. $)
(%)
500
100
200
80
160
60
120
40
80
20
40
0
0
70
73
76
79
Imports
82
85
Energy Imports
88
91
94
97
2000
2004
Oversea dependence
Major Feature(2004)
• Import Dependency: 96.6%
• ME Dependency: Oil 78.1%, Gas 48.5%
• Energy Imports: $ 49.6 billion • Energy Import/Total Import: 22.1%
District Heating
Energy Production in DT(2003)
Heat
Electricity
Total
(Tcal)
(Gwh)
(Tcal)
Household
& Building
16,268
4,626
20,246 (25.4%)
Industry
47,134
14,438
59,551 (74.6%)
63,402
19,054
(79.5%)
(20.5%)
-
5.5%
Total
Shares in
National’s Total
Energy
79,797
3.2%
District Heating
Heat Production by Facilities(2003)
HOB
24%
CHP of heat
companies
26%
By -product
of indus try
2%
Municipal
w as te
Incinerator
6%
CHP of
Pow er Co.
42%
Fuels for Production of District Heating
Shares of Fuel by Sources(2003)
Coal
LNG
ByProduct
gas
B-C
LSWR
Others
Household&
Building
-
73.5%
-
6.8%
18.9%
0.8%
1,814
Industry
25.9%
1.3%
29.4%
24.9% 18.4%
0.1%
5,202
District Heat
19.2%
20.0%
21.8%
20.3% 18.5%
0.3%
7,016
Total
(th.toe)
Projection of Energy Demand(BAU)
288.4 mtoe
311.8 mtoe
269.3 mtoe
(Unit: %)
198.4mtoe
44.8
45.7
46.5
Oil
50.6
20.1
Coal
20.5
22.4
LNG
23.0
Nuclear
10.5
14.1
1.8
2001
2011
RE & Others
14.5
15.4
16.2
16.6
16.7
2.6
2.7
3.1
12.3
2015
2020
Consumption Shares by Sector (%) : 2001 2020
• Industrial : 55.0 50.8
• Residential : 15.7 15.0
• Transport : 21.0 24.6
• Commercial : 6.3 7.5
☞ Forecasted by KEEI
Target for Energy Intensity
Ambitious target for energy intensity set by Korean
government in Dec. 2004
- 88 action plans established to attain the target
Energy / GDP( toe/million Won)
2003
2007
2012
2020
Target
0.303
0.277
0.248
0.198
BAU
0.303
-
0.330(2011)
0.270
International Jointing Stockpiling
Basic concept
- leasing the excess oil storage capacity to foreign oil companies
or oil-producing countries.
benefits for Korea
- raising economic efficiency in storage through collection of leasing fee
- strengthening emergency preparedness. ( Korea has the priority right to
purchase the oil stocks stored in the leased facility in case of an emergency.
For lessee
- securing sales-push point in the center of big consuming region
(Korea, Japan, and China),
- enhancing marketing to customers where VLCC(very large crude oil
carrier) is unacceptable.
- Currently, KNOC is conducting the joint oil stockpiling with Norway's Statoil
(11.3 million barrels) and China's Sinochem.
Strategic(Emergency) Oil Stocks
Oil Stocks (As of Dec., 2004)
(Unit:mbbl)
Government
Refinery Co.
Total
Crude Oil
54.6
27.3
81.9
Oil Product
10.6
47.8
51.4
Total
65.2
68.1
133.9
Duration
53.7days
55.2days
108.3 days
- Duration days are on the basis of previous imports
- Currently, Korean government has 99.1 million barrels of oil storage capacity
in 8 storage bases and plans to increase the storage capacity up to
146 million barrels by 2007.
Government Goal for Renewable energy
2003
2006
2011
supply
Share(%)
supply
Share(%)
supply
Share(%)
Solar thermal
41.4
0.93
101.5
1.45
318.1
2.39
Bio-energy
197.0
4.43
495.0
7.07
1,050.0
7.87
3,080.0
69.20
5,050.0
72.13
7,540.0
56.54
PV
2.7
0.06
21.9
0.31
341.2
2.56
Wind Power
13.1
0.29
125.9
1.80
1,311.4
9.83
Small Hydropower
50.0
1.12
111.0
1.59
446.0
3.34
-
-
0.4
0.01
147.1
1.10
0.8
0.02
12.1
0.17
160.8
1.21
-
-
0.7
0.01
431.5
3.24
Hydrogen
-
-
-
1.3
0.01
Coal
-
-
-
374.6
2.81
Waste-energy
Fuel Cell
Geo thermal
Ocean energy
Sub-Total
3,385
76.05
5,919
84.54
12,122
90.90
Hydro power
1,066
23.95
1,082
15.45
1,213
9.10
Total
4,451
100.00
7,001
100
13,335
100
Share of TPEC
2.06%
3.0%
5.0%(BAU 2.6%)
Electricity from renewable energy (Gwh)
5,134
7,835.6
25,354
Renewable energy share in generation
1.8%
2.4%
7.0%
The ROK LEAP Model
BAU Path
Assumptions of BAU Path
- Base Year: 2001
- Timeline: 2001 – 2030
Item
2001
2010
2020
2030
Annual Increase (%)
’01-’10
GDP (1995
T KRW)
’10-’20
’20-’30
493.4
768.4
1,165.0
1,629.1
5.0
4.3
3.4
Population
(Million)
47.3
49.6
50.7
50.3
0.5
0.2
-0.1
Households
(Million)
Person per
Household
14.9
16.9
18.2
19.1
1.5
1.0
0.5
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.6
-1.0
-0.5
-0.5
Demand in BAU Path
Residential
- Cooking
Demand in BAU Path
Residential
- Space Heating
Demand in BAU Path
Residential
- Appliances
Demand in BAU Path
Industrial
Demand in BAU Path
Transportation
Demand in BAU Path
Transportation
- Household Vehicles
Demand in BAU Path
Transportation
- Mass Transit & Freight
Final Energy Demand in BAU Path
Imports of Primary Energy in BAU Path
National Alternative Path
Assumptions of National Alternative Path
- Most assumptions of National Alternative Path are the same to those
for BAU Path, except electricity generation projections.
- Emphasizing renewable energy:
Share of electricity generation by renewable is assumed to be 7.0%
over total electricity generation in 2011, comparing with 2.6% that is in
the national plan.
- Decreasing new deployment of nuclear power plants after 2015:
Strong resistance against new deployment of nuclear power plants by
local communities has been and is anticipated.
National Alternative Path
Electricity capacity and generation for BAU Path