Transcript Slide 1
A Summary of SAE 550: Systems Architecting and the Political Process
(formerly known as: “Engineering Management of Government-Funded Programs”) University of Southern California Viterbi School of Engineering Systems Architecture & Engineering (SAE) Elliot Axelband January 2015
Elliot Axelband
• Present – SAE Research Professor in ASTE Department – Associate Technical Director of the SAE Program – RAND (FFRDC) Senior Engineer • Ph.D. in EE, MSEE, BEE • IEEE Life Fellow, INCOSE Fellow • Have Been – Associate Dean of Engineering – USC – Research Professor of EE - USC – VP and General Manager – Hughes Aircraft Co. • I have slightly modified this briefing that was
prepared by Instructor Ken Cureton January 2015
SAE 550 Objective
• Part of Systems Architecting & Engineering (SAE) Series – Objective:
“Analysis of risks inherent in managing high-tech/high cost government-funded engineering programs; tools and techniques for coping with the impacts of politically driven budgets on the engineering design process.”
– Elective Course in University of Southern California’s
Masters Program in Systems Architecting & Engineering
• Class originated by Dr. Brenda Forman in the late 1980’s • Class restarted in the Fall of 1996 – Fall 2014 Ken Cureton – About 700 Students have completed the new class – Student Demographics: • About ½ are employed by aerospace companies • About 1 out of 20 are Air Force, Navy, or Army officers • Remainder are foreign students or those with more of a
commercial background January 2015
SAE 550 Value to Students
• Not a Political Science Course! – Provides Political Risk Analysis and Mitigation Techniques • Supplements Classic Cost, Schedule, & Performance Risk
Management Systems Engineering Techniques
• Unique Class Emphasis: Impact on Systems Architecture – Rather Than the Political Impact of Technologies • On Completion of the Course, Students: – Grasp the Real-World Processes for Project Approvals,
Funding, Budget Scheduling, and Regulatory Control
– Understand the Necessity for Strong, Coherent Constituency
and “Keeping the Program Sold”
– Demonstrate Agility in Political Reasoning (Negotiation,
Compromise & Appearance) to Supplement Engineering Logic
• Typical Student Feedback:
“I am now far more effective in project management and real-world systems architecting!” January 2015
SAE 550 Class Format
• Semester Class, 15 Weeks, One night/week – 12 Weekly Lectures, 3 hours each – 3 Weeks of Student Presentations – 1 Final Exam week (scheduled but not used) • Distance Learning Format – Typically only a few students in the TV Studio,
majority of students are scattered across the US
– Class content webcasted for online/offline viewing – Class content in weekly reading materials
(including 11 Case Studies), hosted on Blackboard Software for student preview
– Class presentations in PowerPoint format, hosted on
Blackboard Software for student preview
– Blackboard Software provides for Chat or Voice
Interaction online, Discussion Boards offline
– Simultaneous Webex for real-time interaction
January 2015
SAE 550 Class Grading
• One Research Paper required of each student – In place of a Final Exam, 75% of class grade – Papers are typically 25 single-spaced pages, suitably
formatted for publication in a technical journal
• Student materials on “How to Write a Research Paper” – Students are encouraged to e-mail Instructor with
questions, outlines, drafts, etc.
• Students choose research topic – Submit abstract for approval by Instructor • 11 Case Studies, homework assignment for each • Structured analysis required for paper, homework – Specific analyses required in each case to demonstrate
student’s ability to apply the class fundamentals:
– Political Risk Mitigation Factors • Also known as the Political “Facts Of Life” or FOLs
January 2015
SAE 550 “Political Facts of Life”
(as envisioned by Dr. Brenda Forman)
1. Politics, Not Technology, Controls What Technology Is Allowed To Achieve
– Budget Limitations
(Amount of Money, Color-Of-Money)
– Regulatory Constraints
(Export/ITAR, “Fencing”, Laws)
– Schedule Deadlines
(Not enough time to do it “Right”)
2. Cost Rules
– Usually have to Overstate the Benefits and Understate
the Costs just to get a Program Started
– Program Funding has to be Re-Won each Year – Government Rarely Provides an Optimal Funding Profile
(prefers reduced & level-loaded funding over a longer time)
3. A Strong, Coherent Constituency Is Essential
– Every Successful Program Must Serve Multiple Agendas – Government Loves to Dictate Multiple-Mission Systems
January 2015
SAE 550 “Political Facts of Life”
(as envisioned by Dr. Brenda Forman)
4. Technical Problems Become Political Problems
– All Big-Budget High-Tech Government-Funded Programs
Operate in a Political Fishbowl
• •
Ever-present Foes Looking For Excuses To Seize Funding Valid Scientific Reports Will Be Misused for Political Purposes
5. The Best Engineering Solutions Are Not Necessarily The Best Political Solutions
– For Technical People: the Illogic of Negotiation,
Compromise and Appearance in Politics
•
Programs That Create Jobs Are More Likely To Be Funded Than Programs With Theoretical Goals (Like Basic Research)
– For Political People: the Naiveté of Scientific Reasoning
and Logical Choices in Engineering and Science
•
Most Politicians Have neither the Technical Background nor the Time to Understand Technical Implications of Their Choices January 2015
SAE 550 Other “Political Facts of Life”
• Timing Is Everything • Political Problems Become Technical Problems – Or Become Technical Opportunities • Politics Prefers Immediate, Near-Term Gratification – Political Process Constantly Striving to Satisfy Immediate,
Urgent Needs With Insufficient Resources (Money, Time) ( This Year is More Important Than Out-Years)
– Election “Event Horizon” Also Encourages Near-Term Focus
(in USA: 2 Years for House, 4 Years for President, 6 Years for Senate)
• Politics Believes In Gurus And Heroes – And Once Tarnished, Forever Untrustworthy
(Stink Sticks)
• A Catchy Slogan Is Essential To Getting Attention • Perception Is Often More Important Than The Truth • Staffers Shape Decision-Making
January 2015
SAE 550 Introductory Lecture
• Syllabus – Homework Assignments – Research Paper • Definitions – “The Political System” – Coping Skills for the Modern Design Engineer – Role of the System Architect in the Political Process • Introduction to the Political Facts Of Life – Parallels in Our Personal Lives – Show Intimate Relationship Between Engineering Design
Process And Pressures Of Political Process
– Help Students To Understand That Political Process • To Give Confidence & Effectiveness In Future – Emphasis on Engineering and not on Political Science!
January 2015
SAE 550 Introduction to the Political System and Case Study #1
• Description of the U.S. Federal Budget Process – Brief Overview of PPBE Process
(POM, PBD, FYDP, etc.)
– President’s Budget Request – Generation of the Congressional Budget Bills – Signing Into Law by President (or Threats of Veto) – Continuing Resolutions, Rescissions, Plus-Ups, Earmarks – PAYGO, Nunn-McCurdy Act, Clinger-Cohen Act – Mandatory (Entitlements) vs. Discretional Funding • The Need for Political Risk Mitigation – Coping Skills and Defensive Engineering
( Similar to Need for Performance/Cost/Schedule Risk Mitigation)
• Sample Case Study #1: Manufacture of
High-Power Superconducting Material
– A Hypothetical Aggregation of Typical Circumstances – Very Straightforward Political Analysis via the FOLs
January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #2
• Space Station
“FREEDOM”
– America’s Space Station Development circa 1984-1993 – Brief Coverage of US Predecessors (MOL, Skylab) – Precursor to Today’s
International Space Station
• Search For Constituency – Introduction to Battle of Manned vs. Unmanned Space – Need for (and Consequences of) Work Packages – International Contribution
(Japanese JEM , ESA Columbia )
• The Historical Struggle of – Watching the Basic Architecture Change Because of
Political Pressures
“FREEDOM”
– Consequences of the Cessation of the Cold War: • Keeping Russian Space Scientists Employed • Guiding Students in Proper Analysis via the FOLs – Emphasis on Difficulty of Funding Big-Budget, Long-
Term, High-Tech Basic Research Programs January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #3
• The Superconducting Supercollider – Was to be World’s Largest Particle Accelerator • Comparison to today’s CERN Large Hadron Collider – The Quest for Proof of the High-Energy Physics
“Standard Model” Theory
• Measuring the Mass of the Top Quark & Higgs Boson • The Politically-Driven Process of Site Selection – Culminating in 54 Mile Circumference Underground
Tunnel in Waxahachie Texas (now used for storage)
• Search For Constituency – Intro to Struggle Between “Big” and “Little” Science – Fumbling Attempt to Attract International Participation – Gathering Public Support: “Adopt-A-Magnet” Program • Continued Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-
Budget, Long-Term, High-Tech Basic Research Programs January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #4
• The National AeroSpace Plane
(NASP)
– The “Orient Express”: New York To Tokyo in 2 Hours • Attempts to Maintain American Aerospace Competitiveness – Basic Research Program… Disguised as an Airplane! • Single-Stage-To-Orbit, SCRAMJET Propulsion • Slush Hydrogen Fuel, Computational Fluid Dynamics,
Exotic Composite Materials, Airframe/Engine Integration
• Search For Constituency – Intro to Struggle Between Governmental Agencies:
DARPA, NASA, Air Force, Navy, SDIO
– The Aerospace Contractor Community • Introduction to Cost-Sharing, Teaming, and Consortia • Impact of Firm-Fixed-Price Development Contracts • Continued Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-
Budget, Long-Term, High-Tech Basic Research Programs January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #5
• Launch Systems: – The Original Space Shuttle vs. Recent Space Shuttle – Expendable Launch Vehicles
(ALS, CELV, NLS, etc.)
– Contrast of American vs. Russian Approaches • Space Transportation Infrastructure Constituency – The Space Race: Sputnik - Apollo, 2014 resurgence • A View Into the Future: China, Japan, India, Europe, etc. – Intro to Struggle Between NASA and the DoD
for Control of Space Funding
– Impact of
Challenger Disaster & Augustine Committee
• Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-Budget,
Long-Term, High-Tech Space Infrastructure Programs
– Like Basic Research: Hard to Predict Specific Practical
Applications January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #6
• The Assured Crew Return Vehicle
(ACRV)
– “Life Boats” for Space Station Freedom – Inspired by the 1986 Challenger Disaster • Casualty of the “Peace Dividend” – American Manned Space Program • Turned over to the Russians
after the collapse of the Soviet Union
– Contrast of American vs. Russian Approaches • Investigation of Difficulty in Funding New Programs
with Competition From Foreign Systems
– Battle of Cost Savings vs. American Competitiveness – Political Tug-of-War: Program Funding vs. Astronaut Safety
January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #7
• The V-22 Tiltrotor
“Osprey”
– Example of the Development of a Mission System • Caught in Cross-Fire of Politics! (Congress vs. White House) • Political Impact of Technical Problems – Fixed-Wing vs. Helicopter: Which Is It? Both? Neither? • The Technical Challenges of a Convertiplane • The Challenge of FAA Certification for Civil Uses • Department of Defense Constituency – Intro to Funding War Between the Forces: Air Force vs.
Army vs. Navy (and Plight of Marine Corps Funding)
– Multi-Role, Multi-Service, Multi-Mission Systems • Political Pressures to Develop; Resistance from the Forces • Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-Budget,
Long-Term, High-Tech Mission Systems Development & Construction January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #8
• The Global Positioning System
(GPS)
– Example of the Operation and Use of a Mission System • Political Impact of Unexpected Technical Capabilities
(Civilian Dependence on a Supposedly Military System)
– GPS Block I, II/IIA, IIR, IIRM, IIF, III
(& Control Segment)
– Contrast/Comparison to GLONASS, GALILEO, COMPASS – Capabilities with DGPS, SA/AS, Carrier Phase Tracking • Civilian & Political Constituency – Intro to Struggle Between the DoD and Civilian World – Political Awareness of Need for Precise Navigation • USS
Pueblo , KAL-007, Soviet Sub in Swedish Naval Base
• Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-Budget,
Long-Term, High-Tech Mission Systems Operation and Use January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #9
• The Federal Wildlands Fire-Fighting Process – Example of the Operation and Use of a Mission Process • Impact of FOLs on other than Military/Scientific Scenarios – USDA Forest Service; DOI BLM, NPS, BIA, FWS; Others • FEMA, Army Corps of Engineers, National Weather Service,
DoD, NASA
– Wildlands Fire-Fighting Technologies (Tankers, Helicopters,
SuperScooper, Ground Crews & Equipment, Smoke-Jumpers, “Hot-Shot” Crews, GIS, Fire Simulations, SATCOM, Accounting)
• Civilian & Political Constituency – Intro to Struggle Between Mission Funding (FFFF)
and Daily Operations & Maintenance (O&M) Funding
– Fear of Fire vs. Acceptance of Fire as a Natural Part of
the Ecosystem
• Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-Budget,
Long-Term, High-Tech Mission Processes January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #10
• India’s
Sardar Sarovar
Dam Project
– Example of Design and Construction of a Non-US System • Applicability of FOLs on other than U.S. Political Processes – Sample Student Paper by Ph.D Candidate Indrajeet Dixit • Example of a Successful SAE 550 Research Paper • Civilian & Political Constituency – Intro to Struggle Between States and Federal (“Union”)
Government
– Need for Electrical Power & Dependable Water Supplies • vs. Sharing of Costs and Environmental Impacts – Relocation and Rehabilitation of Affected Peoples – The Roles of National Pride and International Funding • Investigation of Difficulty in Funding Big-Budget,
Long-Term, High-Tech Non-US Systems January 2015
SAE 550 Case Study #11
• Re-Inventing Government – Examination of “Change” in Federal Government • Emphasis on Implications for System Architecture & Design • Political Constituency – Intro to Struggle Between Political Parties • Control of White House vs. Control of Congress • The
National Performance Review (1993 Democrats)
• The
Contract With America (1993 Republicans)
• The
Blueprint For New Beginnings
• Change:
(2001 Republicans) Renewing America’s Promise (2008 Democrats)
– Efforts to Balance the Federal Budget • Deficit Spending, Line-Item Veto, “Pork Barrel” Politics,
Acquisition Reform, Budgetary Reform, Entitlements vs. Discretionary Funds, Interest on the National Debt
• Investigation of Difficulty in Reducing Governmental
Budgets and Complexity January 2015
SAE 550 Summary
• Students Exposed to a Broad Range of Political Impacts on
Actual Case Study System Architecture and Design
– Basic Research Systems – Infrastructure Systems – Design & Development of Mission Systems – Operation & Use of Mission Systems and Processes – International (non-USA) Systems – “Change”-- Efforts to Streamline Government • Students Required to Demonstrate (for their chosen topic
and for 11 Case Studies):
– Political Impacts on System Architecture and Design • Emphasis: Training Systems Architects & Systems Engineers
in the Understanding and Application of Political Risk Mitigation Factors
– Dr. Brenda Forman’s “Political Facts Of Life”
January 2015