Transcript RISKMAN

Managing Risks - Towards a Safe and Efficient
Society
Human Behaviour & Business Aspects
Brian Spedding
A presentation to the Participants’ Forum at European Research 2002
11th November 2002
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“The ability to understand,
measure and weigh risk is at
the heart of modern life”
Peter Bernstein, “Against the Gods: The
Remarkable Story of Risk”
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Importance & Issues
• Changing trends and features increase complexity, vulnerability and uncertainty
• Affect society’s structures and communications, industrial production and peoples' use of
new products and technologies
• Increases the levels of uncontrolled risk for fundamental functions of society and business
life - as a consequence generates increased lack of safety in people's perceptions
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Importance & Issues
• Increasing complexity of technical systems and products makes them more difficult to
understand, monitor and control
– more vulnerable to internal failures and malfunctions
– more vulnerable to external attacks
• Recent events demonstrate the need for improved safety and security
• Financial losses can be considerable
• Hazards in technical systems may result in loss of human lives and environmental
pollution
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Risk Management is a balancing act
Propensity to
take risks
Potential
Rewards
Balancing
behaviour
Perceived
danger
Accidents &
hazards
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Benefits
• New business models for extended products and enterprise networks
• More efficient use of assets and networking SMEs with larger companies
• Prevention of accidents and events causing human losses and affecting human health,
environmental pollution and economic losses
• Safer and more humane surroundings for the citizens
• Improved competitiveness for European industry
Human Factors
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People
Processes
Hazards
Risk
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Human factors
• Measure impact of human factors in risk
identification, assessment and management
• Assess possible results of improving human
factors
– improvements in human-technology interaction
– addressing skill sets and training needed by
operators in different environments, using different
systems - both real and simulated
Technology
Personnel
Integration
Environment
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Improved HTI
• Safety-relevant changes in psychological work demands
– while implementing ICT
• Optimising modalities in man-machine interface
• Contextual assessment of organisational culture
• Integrated assessment of human reliability in probabilistic analyses
• Means for promoting transfer of experience and organisational learning
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Improved HTI
• Incorporate qualitative and quantitative evidence
– Adopt techniques such as Bayesian Belief Nets and influence diagrams
– Use risk-based indicators to follow up the risk during operation.
• Link technical and organisational parameters by identifying the key safety barriers to
control
– Safety barriers assessment
– Interview techniques
– Identification of a typology of risk
– Performance factors of an organisation and assistance in implementing projects
Business Aspects
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Business aspects
• Promote effective risk and reliability management
– Develop new tools based on strategic decision making, economic risks, statistics
– Develop and evaluate new and innovative business models - extend our concept of "value"
• Companies moving from giving guarantees to delivering capacity and making life-long
availability agreements
– Require systematic consideration of reliability and safety in design, operation and maintenance
– Robustness and flexibility will reduce risk and uncertainty, and add economic value
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Cost of risk
• Increased exposure to risk is a consequence of:
– globalisation of economic activity
– mobility of capital flows across national boundaries
– widespread privatisation of public sector enterprise (e.g. utilities)
– intensified competition
– high volatility in international financial markets
• Determine which assets are worth protecting, given the cost of doing so
– “Cost of risk = insurance premium paid”
– self-insurance, administration costs, hedging
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Examples in business
• Private Finance Initiative (PFI)
• Asset management
• Business continuity planning
• Risk-based regulation
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PFIs
• Investment/financing decisions involving allocation of resources under uncertain
conditions are associated with some risk
– assumed (in the expectation of a higher return) or
– transferred to others (through hedging and/or contracting arrangements)
• Principles of infrastructure project finance deals (eg PFI)
– allocate specific risks to the parties best able to bear them
– control performance through incentives
– use market hedging instruments (eg derivatives) to cover market-wide risks (eg interest and exchange
rate fluctuations)
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PFI - different risks at different stages
• Construction
– completion
– cost over-run
– performance
– environmental
• Operation
– performance
– regulatory
– environmental
– off-take
– market
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PFI - handling the risks
• Moves towards fee-based project financing makes risk management of greater importance
• Analyse project exposure to risks
–
–
–
–
–
from different perspectives
bargaining between stakeholders
economic viability
Monte Carlo simulation to assess uncertainties
variation over time
“Optimal Risk
Allocation”
or
“Maximum Risk
Transfer”
X
?
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Asset Management
• Increasing adoption of ever more complex technology and communication systems
– greater dependency on complex technology brings a higher risk of business interruptions due to the
failure of some of, or all, the systems and services supporting them
– traditional maintenance management pays little attention to managing risk
• Asset management
– scheduling of maintenance activities - “living with defects”
– trade-offs between risks and costs of downtime/disruption
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Asset Management
• Critical equipment/systems should be considered as assets supporting business critical
processes
• Positive management of these business-critical systems is needed
• This enables:
– better understanding of complex inter-dependencies, at all levels
– management have better control, and flexibility to meet the demands of changing business needs
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Asset Management
• Effective asset management represents one of the main components in the reduction of
organisational business risk
• The key to effective asset management:
– the ability to accurately predict the future performance and associated life cycle costs of assets
• Develop an understanding of their current condition and service potential
• Then apply advanced asset management techniques to this knowledge base
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Asset Management
• Life Cycle Planning
– provides a strategic planning capability to
compare projected NPV LCCs of various
assets whilst still at the asset planning stage
Operating Profile
Pre-Operation
Tasks
% Availability
Available
Resource
Operating Hours
Operations Performed
No
Servicing
– maximise ROI
– risk analysis, maintenance history and
opportunity costs into consideration
Failure?
Yes
Manpower
Pool
• Asset Renewal Optimisation
– optimise renewal options for assets currently
in service
Post-Operation
Tasks
Operation
Maintenance
Tasks
Facilities
Pool
Component
Resupply Time
Work Shop
Tasks
Spares
Pool
Support
Equipment
Pool
Usage
Man hours
%Utilisation
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Asset Management
• Failure Mode Analysis
– Consequences of Failure
– Probability of Failure
• Valuation Analysis
– manage infrastructure valuation requirements
– report on asset valuations, depreciation,
capital expenditure, disposals, acquisitions etc
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Business continuity
• Turnbull report
• From March 2001 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange have been required to
make annual governance statements referring to their identification and mitigation of risk
• More specifically the report "..places an obligation on listed companies to establish a sound
system of internal control and incorporate risk management within their normal
management and governance processes."
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Risk-based Regulations
• More flexible than the more traditional rule-based regulations
• Risk analyses can help prove that new solutions are acceptable and even safer than
traditional ones
– but taking into account how people view risks is a challenge
• Regulatory authorities able to concentrate efforts on areas were the risk is considered least
acceptable, and where the effect in terms of risk reduction is highest
• Need high-quality, robust risk analyses
Conclusions
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Conclusions
• People are an inescapable part of the risk equation
– perception/identification of risk
– management of risk
– individually and in an organisational context
• Business aspects of risk have many ramification
– risk allocation
– asset management
– risk-based regulation
• Transnational & cross-sector issues will be key