Transcript Slide 1
DGVT meeting – Brdo
New insight into future skill
needs in Europe
Aviana Bulgarelli and Alena Zukersteinova
Cedefop
1-4 March 2008
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Why skills needs analyses
• to fill existing information deficits to inform
actors on future labour market needs for
their decision-making
• to support evidence-based policy-making
in LLL, employment and social policy
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Why a European approach
Education and skills - key driver for European growth,
competitiveness and jobs
need to know which occupations and skills will be required
education and training will develop knowledge and skills,
promote innovation, fill potential gaps, support growth and
restructuring
Approaches to anticipate skills exist in several
Member States
BUT: not yet well established at
European level
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Cedefop’s pro-active approach
• Consistent and comprehensive projections
of skill needs across Europe
• Unique at European level
• European „team work“
launch and coordination of Skillsnet
towards a European system for early
identification of skill needs
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Cedefop presents the first European
forecast on occupational skill needs …
… to answer the following questions
• In which sectors will employment be
growing or declining?
• Which occupations will be in demand?
• For which qualifications will demand
increase or decrease?
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
European skills forecasting
– comparable information Europe-wide
– feasible & cost-effective
First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs)
Second stage: supply side (available skills –
people) and identification of possible imbalances
Next stages: further improvement of methods and
data bases; additional research; joint European
approach
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Modular approach to skill needs forecasting
Overview of the Framework
Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios
Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation
Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification
Module 4: Replacement demand
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Future trends at a pan-European
level (EU-25+)
•
•
•
•
by sector (up to 41 industries)
by occupation (up to 27 occupations)
by qualification (3 broad levels)
plus replacement demands
EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past
and
likely
future
trends
by
sector
(EU-25+)
Millions
60
Distribution and transport
50
Non-marketed
services
Business & other
services
40
Manufacturing
30
20
Construction
10
Primary sector & utilities
0
1996
97
98
99
2000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Forecast
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12
13
14
15
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17.9
All industries
Past and
likely
future
sectoral
change
and
structure
(EU-25+)
13.3
Primary sector
and utilities
-3.1
-2.3
-2.9
Manufacturing
1996-2006
-0.5
2006-2015
1.4
Construction
0.4
Distribution
and transport
5.9
3.5
Business and
other services
11.6
8.9
Non-marketed
services
5.1
3.2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
million jobs
100%
80%
7.8
26.7
5.6
4.2
Prima ry se ctor
a nd utilitie s
23.8
22.4
Ma nufa cturing
Se rvice s
60%
40%
65.5
70.6
73.4
2006
2015
20%
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0%
1996
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Legislators, senior
officials and managers
3
2.7
3
Professionals
3.8
Technicians and
associate professionals
Past and
likely
future
occupational
change
(EU-25+)
6
4.7
-1
Clerks
1996-2006
2006-2015
-1.3
Service workers and shop
and market sales workers
4
2.5
Skilled agricultural
and fishery workers
-2
-1.7
Craft and related
trades workers
-2
-1.4
Plant and machine
operators and assemblers
0
0.5
6
Elementary occupations
3.5
18
All occupations
13.3
-5
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0
5
million jobs
10
15
20
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100%
Past and
likely
future
occupational
structure
(EU-25+)
80%
34.9
37.8
40.6
High-skilled nonmanual occupations
60%
26.0
25.1
24.1
Low-skilled nonmanual occupations
Skilled manual
occupations
40%
20%
29.9
25.6
22.9
8.6
10.9
11.8
1996
2006
2015
0%
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Elementary
occupations
DGVT meeting – Brdo
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Legislators, senior officials and managers
Professionals
Technicians and associate professionals
Replacement
demand
(EU-25+)
Clerks
Service workers, shop/market sales workers
Skilled agricultural and fishery workers
Craft and related trades workers
Replacement
demand
Plant and machine operators and assemblers
Total
requirements
Elementary occupations
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Expansion
demand
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Million jobs
250
Past and
200
likely
future
150
qualification
100
trends
(EU-25+)
50
High qualification
Medium qualification
Low qualification
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2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
DGVT meeting – Brdo
100%
Past and
likely
future
qualification
structure
(EU-25+)
20.9
25.3
29.3
80%
60%
46.2
Medium qualification
48.6
49.9
40%
20%
32.9
Low qualification
26.2
20.8
0%
1996
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High qualification
2006
2015
DGVT meeting – Brdo
Past and likely future qualification
structure (Slovenia)
100%
15.6%
24.1%
80%
30.3%
High qualification
60%
60.5%
Medium qualification
60.6%
59.2%
40%
20%
23.9%
15.4%
10.5%
2006
2015
0%
1996
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Low qualification
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13
High qualification
Past
and
likely
future
qualification
change
(EU-25+)
12.4
13
Medium qualification
9.5
1996-2006
-8
Low qualification
2006-2015
-8.6
18
All qualifications
13.3
-10
-5
0
million jobs
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5
10
15
20
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Qualification requirements increase in all
occupations – also in elementary jobs
Change 2006 - 2015
8.3
High-skilled non-manual
occupations
3.3
-0.4
2.4
Low-skilled non-manual
occupations
1.1
-2.3
High qualification
Medium qualification
0.8
Skilled manual
occupations
1.5
-4.8
Low qualification
0.9
Elementary occupations
3.6
-1.0
-5
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0
million jobs
5
10
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Key similarities and differences
across countries
• Many common trends:
– sectors, occupations, replacement needs,
qualifications
• Some differences:
– stage of economic development, different
industrial & occupational structures
► process of convergence
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Key findings
Evolutionary structural change towards
service sectors and knowledge-intensive jobs
over 13 million additional jobs by 2015
– Almost 16 million new jobs in service sector
– Loss of over 2 million jobs in the primary
sector and 0,5 million in manufacturing
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Demand for skilled occupations
today 80 out of 210 million people are
employed in high skilled non manual jobs.
Expected to increase in next decade
jobs requiring generic clerical skills, crafts
and agricultural occupations will decline
increases expected in elementary
occupations (construction, services)
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Qualification needs by 2015
job gains requiring highly (12,5 million) and
medium qualified workers (9,5 million), in
particular vocational qualifications
job losses for low qualified workers (8,5 million),
even in elementary occupations
in 2015, 30% of jobs will need high
qualifications, 50% medium. Low qualifications
will fall from a third in 1996 to around 20%
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Results lead to a knowledge and
competence based European model
that combines needs for
medium and high qualifications and
continuing learning and up-skilling in all
jobs
workers in elementary occupations but
with growing qualifications
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Future priorities
Continuing dialogue: with country experts
and stakeholders
Overcome data problems: policy support
needed to refine data
Further refinement: the models/framework
Complementary research: forecast of skills
supply and more detailed analysis of skill
needs at enterprise and sectoral level
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DGVT meeting – Brdo
Contact details for further
information:
Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu
Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet
Alena Zukersteinova
[email protected]
Torsten Dunkel
[email protected]
1-4 March 2008