Transcript Policy planning forecasting - University of California

POLICY-PLANNINGFORECASTING
October 3, 2006
1
Outline

Background
 Role of Legislation, Policy, Planning,
Programming in Transportation
 Briefly on Using Management Systems &
Simulation/Models as Tools
 Examples of Legislation as a Tool
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General Framework
Example: Land Use & Transportation
Causal
FROM:
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/
planning/toolbox/framew
3
ork.htm
Policies (Sacramento Example)

High-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes;
 High-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes;
 Light rail transit (LRT) and other
advanced transit;
 Transit-Oriented Development (TOD);
 Roadway-Oriented Development (ROD);
and
 Pricing
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/toolbox/sacramento_ove 4
rview.htm
Formalized Procedures

Key steps in policy definition and
implementation
 Many steps defined in legislation federal, state, & region/city
 New technology introduced by federal
rules
 State & regions define policies, resist
and/or foster change, implement solutions
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Digression on Different Hierarchies
in Decision Making
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Digression on Policy Actors

Federal Legislature (Congress)
 Federal Government (President & Agencies)
 State Legislature
 State Government (Governor and Agencies)
 Regions & Counties (in East US Advisory)
 Cities-townships (Govern on local issues)
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Digression on Policy Actors

Federal Congress General legislation (4
to 6 year span)
 Federal Agencies Create regulations to
implement policy
 Congress & Agencies
- Allocate $$$ to
states
State “Congress” State legislation &
budget
 State Agencies Create processes to
spend funds and
implement
technologies Allocate $$$ to cities

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Key Definitions

Policies - Broad Directions (GoalsObjectives-Measures)

Example: Save Lives, Leave Open
Space, Decrease Travel Time

Politics - Emphasis on one direction
for specific groups of people
Example: Decrease Gas Tax
Planning - Sequence of steps to satisfy
the objectives ------ Contains a strong
quantitative component (simulation
models)
Example: Regional Long Range Transp.
Plan

Programming - Process to define
allocation of resources to projects
Example: Funding for I-99
 Operations
Sequence of steps to make a system work in a desirable way
Example: organization of streets & signals
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National Transportation Planning
USDOT
Natio nal policy and direction
Pro gram fundin g
Statistics
Res earch
Statewide Transportation Planning
State policy an d direction
Conformity with nation al policies
Pro ject programming/administration
PennDOT
Regional Planning
Identification of projects
Res pond to inpu t from mgmt systems
MPO
MPO
Local Transportation Planning
Identification of projects
Participation in statewide/metro /reg ional p lanning
Local develop ment
LDD
City
LDD
MPO
Acronyms:
USDOT -- United States Department of Transportation
PennDOT -- Pennsylvania Department of Transportation
MPO -- Metropolitan Planning Organization
LDD -- Local Development District
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Hierarchy of goals-objectives-performance
measures-targets-evaluation/monitoring
Goal
Improve the environment
Specificity
increases
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Implement
congestion
management
Achieve
compliance with
environmental rules
Promote
telecommuting
Performance Measure
Perfomance Measure
Establish traf and ops
management centers
Implement incident management
Target
Target
Contrcat and design center by Dec. 2000
Phll. and Pitt. centers by Dec. 2005
50% of Interstates covered by Dec 2003
Regular monitoring of progress to meet targets – updates
based on technical analysis and public involvement
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Hierarchy in the Usual Sequence
Define Emphasis
Policy
Add Goals
Goals
Objectives
Politics
Planning
Projects
Add Projects
Data
Operations
Programming
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Usual Sequence with Strategic Plan
Define Emphasis
Policy
Add Goals
Goals
Objectives
Politics
Add Projects
Planning
Strategic Planning
Programming
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Strategic Plan

Shorter term than planning
 Vision-mission-values
 Goals & objectives
 Monitoring of implementation
 Reporting to constituents
 Update regularly
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National -- U. S. DOT
Long-Range Planning
Policy -- ISTEA
TEA 21in 1998
Statewide -- PennDOT
Policy Plan -- PA Long-Range Plan
Strategic Plan
Strategic Plan
Strategic Plan
Programming -- SUM of TIPs
Regional -- TMA, MPO
List of projects
TIP
Local -- LDD, County government
List of projects
Rural TIP
Today
5 years
10 years
15 years
Time
20 years
Policy-Planning Horizon and Roles
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PennDOT’s Policy-Plan

Policy document --- 20 years
 Strategic plan (moving PA forward) --- 5
years
 PennPlan document --- 25 years, updates
every year
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TOOLS
- Analytical
-
Institutional
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Planning Tools

Analytical tools
Inventory = Complete electronic and non-electronic catalog of transportation system
components and condition
Management Systems = Information systems to update inventory (see PennDOT
systems later)
Simulation Models = An electronic inventory with behavioral models
Forecasting = A toolkit of transport simulation models for scenarios
- Land Use, Demographics, Networks, Facilities, Vehicles etc.

Laws-regulations-rules
Federal laws = provide budgets, general guidelines, standards to achieve, and
“earmarks”
State laws= provide more detailed budgets and guidelines
State rules and regulations = prescribe implementation of laws
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Planning Tools & InnovationsNew Technology






Legislation - Framework/Guidelines/Targets
Policy & Plans - Framework/Guidelines/Targets
Planning - Problem Solutions/Impact
Assessment
Programming - Implement Solutions/Funding
Management Systems - Monitor/Collect
Data/Integrate Models
Simulation/Models - Assess Success of
Innovations & Technologies
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Planning Tools

Monitoring &
Management
Systems
Analytical tools
Inventory = Complete electronic and non-electronic catalog of transportation system
components and condition
Management Systems = Information systems to update inventory (see PennDOT
systems later)
Simulation Models = An electronic inventory with behavioral models
Forecasting = A toolkit of transport simulation models for scenarios
- Land Use, Demographics, Networks, Facilities, Vehicles etc.

Laws-regulations-rules
Federal laws = provide budgets, general guidelines, standards to achieve, and
“earmarks”
State laws= provide more detailed budgets and guidelines
State rules and regulations = prescribe implementation of laws
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Management & Monitoring
Systems





Defined by Federal Legislation in 1991
This is one way to “think” about transportation
in an organized way
Six Management Systems: Congestion Intermodal - Bridge - Safety - Public
Transportation - Pavement
One Monitoring - Traffic
All contain processes, procedures, technologies
(hardware - software), & information systems
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POLICY
PLAN
(PennDOT)
Management
and Monitoring
Systems
Annual
Report
Twelve Year
Program &
S.T.I.P
Guidance
Guidance
Review
MPO TIPs/LDD
Programs
Public Input
Other Agencies
Stakeholders
Public Input
Other Agencies
Stakeholders
Long Range
Plans
MPOs/LDDs
Contiguous Programming
Development Cycle
Periodic Policy Plan Input and
Consistency Checks
Policy Plan Integration
Activities
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Planning Tools

Analytical tools
Simulation &
Forecastingsystem
Inventory = Complete electronic and non-electronic catalog of transportation
components and condition
Management Systems = Information systems to update inventory (see PennDOT
systems later)
Simulation Models = An electronic inventory with behavioral models
Forecasting = A toolkit of transport simulation models for scenarios
- Land Use, Demographics, Networks, Facilities, Vehicles etc.

Laws-regulations-rules
Federal laws = provide budgets, general guidelines, standards to achieve, and
“earmarks”
State laws= provide more detailed budgets and guidelines
State rules and regulations = prescribe implementation of laws
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Typical Process for Simulation
Goals and
objectives
Transportation
organizations
PennDOT
MPOs
TMAs
LDDs
Local gov’ts
Citizen participation
Calibrate models
Inventories and
data collection
Population
Land use
Economic activity
Transportation system
Travel volumes
Terminal and transfer
facilities
Financial resources
Community values
D
A
T
A
Policy and
technical development
Continuing elements
Develop immediate
action plan
Surveillance
Reappraisal
Procedural development
Service
Annual report
Land use
Trip generation
Trip distribution
Modal split
Traffic assign.
Areawide
forecast
Population
Land use
Economic
Traffic
Revenues
Analysis of future
alternative systems
Develop alternatives
Apply models
Land use
Trip generation
Trip distribution
Mode choice
Traffic assign.
Plan testing, evaluation
and selection
Plan implementation
= Part of the Sequential
Demand Forecasting Process
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Simulation Model Example
Input Existing System Data
GIS Database
Activity Schedule
-what will occur
Activity Location
-where will the activity take place
Mode Choice
-how will the individual get
to the activity location
Route Selection
-what route will be used to
travel from Activity A to
Activity B
Traffic Simulation
-results in actual travel times
and relative distances
between Activity centers
MOE's for
Base Year
Future No Change
Future Changes
Future Network Changes:
•Policy Changes
•Congestion Relief Policies
•HOV Lanes
•Value Pricing
•New Transit Services
•Geometric Changes
•Rideshare Incentives
•Land Use Changes
•Information to Passengers
EXAMPLE: URBAN
CONGESTION
MANAGEMENT
MODEL
OUTPUT=Estimates of number of trips, travel
time, travel costs, modal share
per highway segment
Output Example (GIS map)
Traffic
volume in
cars per hour
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Planning Tools

Analytical tools
Inventory = Complete electronic and non-electronic catalog of transportation system
components and condition
Management Systems = Information systems to update inventory (see
PennDOT&
Mandates
systems later)
Appropriations($)
Simulation Models = An electronic inventory with behavioral models
Forecasting = A toolkit of transport simulation models for scenarios
- Land Use, Demographics, Networks, Facilities, Vehicles etc.

Laws-regulations-rules
Federal laws = provide budgets, general guidelines, standards to achieve, and
“earmarks”
State laws= provide more detailed budgets and guidelines
State rules and regulations = prescribe implementation of laws
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Legislation as a Tool




Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA)- clean
fuels, air quality standards and schedule
Intermodal Surface Transportation Act of 1991
(ISTEA) - management systems, intelligent trans.
systems program, transportation centers
Transportation Equity Act of 1998 (TEA) - defined
standards (e.g., 20% decrease in fatalities), directed
grants to States, Regions, and Universities (for R&D)
State Safety Legislation - grants for safety improvements
& ITS technology implementation
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Typical processes/procedures

http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/MassTrans/doc
_pdf/Transfund.pdf
 Safety in planning
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News from legislative front
August 10, 2005 – New Transportation
Legislation Defines The National Framework
 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/index.htm
 See also the agenda of the latest AMPO meeting
 Statewide:
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/factsheets/st
atewide.htm

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Questions?
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