Transcript Arial - GECAFS

Scientific Information for Sound
Agricultural Decision Making –
Food and Fertilizer
Upendra Singh
Senior Scientist - Systems Modeler
Resource Development Division
and
Feisal Beig
Senior Specialist - Marketing
Market Development Division
www.ifdc.org
Goals
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Maintaining and improving soil fertility to meet
food demands of growing population.
Increasing the productivity of the land currently
under production to avoid encroaching on
wilderness areas.
Mitigating climate change by improved use
efficiencies/reduced environmental hazards.
Improving livelihoods of farmers.
Improving human nutrition.
Unbiased information systems.
www.ifdc.org
Industry Response
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Products
1.
Vast majority of crop nutrition products exist
in forms that have remained largely
unchanged for a half-century
Unlike traditional commodity products, new
“knowledge base” products incorporate
extensive research and have characteristics
that are protected by intellectual property
rules. E.g. “smart” release, bio-fertilizers,
“enriched” organic, anti-explosives, low Cd
P fertilizers, biotechnology components
2.
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Industry Response
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Production Technology
1.
Cost consideration
Energy Use (in last 15 years from 10 to 8
MWh per ton ammonia produced)
Greenhouse gas emission (N2O, CFC):
Signatory on UNEP International
Declaration on Cleaner Production
“Clean air” – NH3, SO2, F2
Environmental credits
Designs, databases – competitive, regulate
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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Best Available Technique (BAT) Assessment,
Cost vs. Benefit Considerations
Cost
Limit of Cost
Effectiveness
Low Cost Options
(BAT)
Cost vs Benfit +ve
High Cost
Options
Cost vs Benfit
-ve
Amount of Emission Abated
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Anthropogenic Sources for N2O
Emission (Kroeze, 1999)
Source
Millions t N2O/yr
Nitric Acid Manufacture
0.4
Adipic acid manufacture
0.2
Combustion of fossil fuels
1.4
Combustion of biomass
0.9
Manure and human waste
3.3
Agricultural soils
6.6
Total Anthropogenic Sources
12.8
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Industry Response
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Production Technology
1.
Cost consideration
Energy Use (in last 15 years from 10 to 8
MWh per ton ammonia)
Greenhouse gas emission (N2O, CFC):
Signatory on UNEP International
Declaration on Cleaner Production
“Clean air” – NH3, SO2, F2
Environmental credits
Designs, databases – competitive, regulate
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
www.ifdc.org
Research Support
Nutrient Management :
– site specific recommendation,
precision agriculture
– deep-placement
– control release fertilizers
– inhibitors
 Improve
- Productivity (Food, feed, fiber and bioenergy)
- NUE, WUE, C Sequestration
 Reduce
- Nutrient Losses - erosion, leaching, N2O
volatilization
- Methane (cultivars and feed additives)
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www.ifdc.org
Research Support
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International Nitrogen Initiative
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A balanced approach increase fertilizer
use efficiency while safeguarding the
key role that nitrogen plays in meeting
the world's growing food demand
Research and extension by independent
research centers
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Developed countries knowledge base is
well established
Developing countries (major agricultural
growth markets) less investment
Industry investment in independent
research centers.
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Education and Policy
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Government and FAO Advisory
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Early years expertise highly valued in
decision-making, at both a policy level and
field- level
Information from industry sources has
been viewed with increasing cynicism by
other stakeholders, and governments have
been forced to maintain their distance from
potentially valuable sources of expertise
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Education and Policy
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Outsourcing of agronomic research
to independent institutes
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Increase the credibility of the results.
However, this has reduced the interaction
between industry decision-makers,
policymakers and researchers.
This disconnect has probably adversely
affected decision-making across the
board to varying degrees in different
agribusiness sectors
(Regional Conference for Africa)
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Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD), Agri-Environmental
Indicators and Economic Instruments
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OECD indicators focus on simple measures
such as kg ha-1 product applied with no
consideration of initial soil conditions,
climate, crop, etc.
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OECD economists often suggest taxes on
these indicators as a way to deal with
excessive nutrients in the environment.
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OECD Agri-Environmental Indicators and
Economic Instruments
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Ignores good science in a number of ways:
Fails to address the management of nutrients
from manures and other sources;
having no effect on the quality of management
of the fertilizer that is applied and potentially
diminishing crop quality and soil fertility
Dynamic nutrient balance.
Proposed indicators are too difficult to implement
in a policy framework.
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Meeting Market Demands
Competitive producers deliver commodities
that are in demand
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What crops can be cultivated profitably at
any specified location and season at
prescribed commodity prices
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Constraints
- 12 mil ha forest cut annually
- 40% more rice, wheat, etc without
recourse to additional land and water
resources
 DSS tools, input data
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www.ifdc.org
Nutrient Component
Nutrient DSS
Graphical
User
Interface
(ArcView)
Nutrient
Database
System
www.ifdc.org
- select target area
- display base map
- query nutrient
information
- productivity analysis
- print out
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P Dilemma in Sub-Saharan Africa
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P deficiency widespread
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P fertilizer use = 2.5 kg P2O5/ha.
www.ifdc.org
Phosphate Rock Decision Support
System (PRDSS)
IFDC/IAEA-FAO developed PRDSS
 Database: PR characteristics, deposit,
geological, climatic, soils, crops and
economics
 Identify agronomic and economic feasibility of
direct PR application
 Link with GIS: Feasibility of mining and
transportation
Decision: use local PR vs. imported P
fertilizer
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Customer
Recommendations
Enabling
Research
Prediction/Diagnosis
Decision Aids
Existing Knowledge Base
Prices, Market Trends
Distribution, Consumption
Production, Import, Export
Inputs
Outputs
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Seeds
Food crop
Cash Crop
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Prediction
Research
Natural Resource
Inventory
Databases
 Soil
 Climate
 Crop
 Inputs
 Output
Understanding
Research
Components of Integrated
Decision Support Toolbox
• Soil profile data bases (national, FAO)
• Climate data (global climate change models, climate
forecast)
• Remote sensing data
• Crop simulation models, expert knowledge (postharvest handling, processing) and GIS
• Market information system (inputs, outputs (crops),
cash and futures market data, credits, loans)
• Decision aids for economic and impact assessment
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DSS Response
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Food habits changing faster than
farming can change
Corporate participation – better
alignment of farming and consumption
pattern
Opportunities for improvement in
developing countries
- currently low productivity but low
labor = globally competitive
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Selected DSS Users
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Crop Insurance
Data mining
- Discovery (conditional logic,
affinities and associations, etc)
- Predictive Modeling (probabilities
and forecasts)
- Forensic Analysis (deviation
detection)
Scenarios for spot check
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Fertilizer Industry DSS Use
Demand Forecasting (existing and future)
Consider changes in:
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demographics,
incomes,
purchasing power,
food habits
cropping patterns
agricultural technology including bio-technology and
precision agriculture, seeds, CPP technology
information technology,
educational levels,
infrastructure,
prices of inputs and outputs,
investments in agriculture, etc.
www.ifdc.org
Fertilizer Industry DSS Use
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Demand Forecast (continued)
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Changes in markets due to a universal trend
of decontrol, deregulation, privatization,
introduction of open and competitive markets
dominated by the private sector.
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Changes in business brought about by the
ease in communication, dissemination of
information, etc.
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Fertilizer Industry DSS Use
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Supply Forecast Consider
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Changes in fertilizer technology (products
but more so production efficiencies and
economies of scale have changed),
Agroindustrial profile
materials sources,
prices,
substitutes,
increase in competition, etc
 Improving the decision making process.
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Market Society to Network Society
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Easy access to information
Knowledge – universities, research and
extension
Purchasing power – competition
Sales – local, export, processing
Development work – technology,
health, legal
Feedback and power of scale
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Acknowledgement
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Thankful for contribution from IFA on how
policymakers in the food value chain use
science originating from industry and its
related research base
Dr Arvin Mosier – information on GECAFSDSS
GECAFS/USDA-ARS/UF for the invitation and
financial support
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