Governing Coupled Systems The Search for Sustainability
Download
Report
Transcript Governing Coupled Systems The Search for Sustainability
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School of Environmental Science & Management
University of California at Santa Barbara
http://www.gsdprogram.org
Perspectives on Vulnerability
Oran R. Young
GCP SSC 4
Paris, 15 June 2005
Vulnerability
• Definition (Turner et al 2003)
“Vulnerability is the degree to which a
system, subsystem, or system component is
likely to experience harm due to exposure to
a hazard, either a perturbation or
stress/stresssor.”
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Systems: vulnerability of what to what?
– Communities to natural hazards (draughts, floods, storms,
famines)
• Special case of individuals/families/neighborhoods
– Institutions (e.g. resource regimes) to environmental
change/anthropogenic change
– Ecosystems/biophysical systems (e.g. carbon pools) to
anthropogenic change
– SESs to environmental change (e.g. climate change)
• Human-environment interactions
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Elements of vulnerability analysis
– Exposure/sensitivity/coping capacity or
adaptability
– Scale and scalar effects
• Differences across spatial/temporal scales
• Interactions across scales can increase/decrease
vulnerability
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Focus on exposure
– stresses/threats/ hazards/ perturbations/risks
• Types/characteristics of stress:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Individual
Multiple
Interactive
Cumulative
Narrow/broad
Gradual/sudden/abrupt
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Focus on sensitivity
– Resistance to external pressure/disturbance
• Some factors leading to variations in
degrees of sensitivity
–
–
–
–
–
General health/robustness
Knowledge/skills
Reserves (e.g. wealth)
Entitlements (e.g. rights to food, water)
Availability of help from other systems
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Focus on response/coping capacity
– Role of resilience in this framework
• Resilience = resistance + adaptability
• Forms of response
–
–
–
–
Anticipatory/reactive
Mitigation/adaptation
Defensive/collaborative
Adaptation/learning/intentional change
• Stress management strategies
– Prevention, preparedness, response
– Trial runs
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Vulnerability as the DV
• Measurement issues
– Can we devise a general/generic measure of vulnerability
or is vulnerability issue or case specific?
– Does it matter?
• Can we make progress without such a measure
– Possible indicators of vulnerability
• Compare other indicator efforts – e.g. DJIA for health of
the economy; HDI for state of human welfare,
numerous efforts to measure SD
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• IVs – explaining/predicting variations in
vulnerability
• Some relevant factors
–
–
–
–
–
–
Diversification
Substitutability
Natural and social capital
Reserves/stored resurces
Aptitude for learning
External support/subsidies
• Idea of syndromes
– Recurrent combinations (e.g. Sahel Syndrome)
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Consequences of vulnerability
– What happens when stresses mount?
– Maintenance with little change
• Adaptive management
– State changes
• Multiple equilibria
• Thresholds, triggers, flips, domains of attraction
– System change/transformation
• Transitions vs. state changes
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
Applications to our case
The importance of focusing on coupled or
social-ecological systems
Scientific importance
Mandate of GCP as an ESSP project
Policy relevance
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
Application to our case (cont’d)
The value of focusing on one or two cases
And bearing down on the SES issues
Selection criteria
Probability of occurrence
Consequences for society
Scientific tractability
Opportunity to improve understanding of socialecological systems
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
Application to our case (cont’d)
Proposal – boreal and tropical forests
Biophysical processes
Anthropogenic drivers
Human responses
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School of Environmental Science & Management
University of California at Santa Barbara
http://www.gsdprogram.org
ORAN R. YOUNG
Director
[email protected]
Phone: 805-893-8437
Fax: 805-893-7064