Transcript Governing Coupled Systems The Search for Sustainability

PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School of Environmental Science & Management
University of California at Santa Barbara
http://www.gsdprogram.org
Perspectives on Vulnerability
Oran R. Young
GCP SSC 4
Paris, 15 June 2005
Vulnerability
• Definition (Turner et al 2003)
“Vulnerability is the degree to which a
system, subsystem, or system component is
likely to experience harm due to exposure to
a hazard, either a perturbation or
stress/stresssor.”
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Systems: vulnerability of what to what?
– Communities to natural hazards (draughts, floods, storms,
famines)
• Special case of individuals/families/neighborhoods
– Institutions (e.g. resource regimes) to environmental
change/anthropogenic change
– Ecosystems/biophysical systems (e.g. carbon pools) to
anthropogenic change
– SESs to environmental change (e.g. climate change)
• Human-environment interactions
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Elements of vulnerability analysis
– Exposure/sensitivity/coping capacity or
adaptability
– Scale and scalar effects
• Differences across spatial/temporal scales
• Interactions across scales can increase/decrease
vulnerability
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Focus on exposure
– stresses/threats/ hazards/ perturbations/risks
• Types/characteristics of stress:
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Individual
Multiple
Interactive
Cumulative
Narrow/broad
Gradual/sudden/abrupt
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Focus on sensitivity
– Resistance to external pressure/disturbance
• Some factors leading to variations in
degrees of sensitivity
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General health/robustness
Knowledge/skills
Reserves (e.g. wealth)
Entitlements (e.g. rights to food, water)
Availability of help from other systems
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Focus on response/coping capacity
– Role of resilience in this framework
• Resilience = resistance + adaptability
• Forms of response
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Anticipatory/reactive
Mitigation/adaptation
Defensive/collaborative
Adaptation/learning/intentional change
• Stress management strategies
– Prevention, preparedness, response
– Trial runs
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Vulnerability as the DV
• Measurement issues
– Can we devise a general/generic measure of vulnerability
or is vulnerability issue or case specific?
– Does it matter?
• Can we make progress without such a measure
– Possible indicators of vulnerability
• Compare other indicator efforts – e.g. DJIA for health of
the economy; HDI for state of human welfare,
numerous efforts to measure SD
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• IVs – explaining/predicting variations in
vulnerability
• Some relevant factors
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Diversification
Substitutability
Natural and social capital
Reserves/stored resurces
Aptitude for learning
External support/subsidies
• Idea of syndromes
– Recurrent combinations (e.g. Sahel Syndrome)
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
• Consequences of vulnerability
– What happens when stresses mount?
– Maintenance with little change
• Adaptive management
– State changes
• Multiple equilibria
• Thresholds, triggers, flips, domains of attraction
– System change/transformation
• Transitions vs. state changes
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
Applications to our case
The importance of focusing on coupled or
social-ecological systems
Scientific importance
Mandate of GCP as an ESSP project
Policy relevance
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
Application to our case (cont’d)
The value of focusing on one or two cases
And bearing down on the SES issues
Selection criteria
Probability of occurrence
Consequences for society
Scientific tractability
Opportunity to improve understanding of socialecological systems
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
Vulnerability
Application to our case (cont’d)
Proposal – boreal and tropical forests
Biophysical processes
Anthropogenic drivers
Human responses
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School, UCSB http://www.gsdprogram.org
PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Bren School of Environmental Science & Management
University of California at Santa Barbara
http://www.gsdprogram.org
ORAN R. YOUNG
Director
[email protected]
Phone: 805-893-8437
Fax: 805-893-7064