Transcript Document

Singapore Market Developments
APEx 2007
Presented by Dave Carlson
Chief Executive Officer
15 October 2007
1
Quick recap of NEMS
• NEMS commenced on 1 January 2003
• Mandatory “real-time” pool based model
• Thermal system (predominately gas & fuel oil)
• Small, compact, well-engineered system
• Offer only market (i.e. no demand side bidding)
• Simple ½ hour trading periods with 65 minute gateclosure for energy, reserve and regulation
• Very sophisticated nodal price system which models
power flows, loses, constraints, co-optimising energy and
reserves
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Quick recap of NEMS
• Market settled daily (20 days in arrears)
• Small and concentrated market with a high degree of
vertical integration
• Larger consumers can chose to purchase from a retailer
(five active retailers)
• Smaller consumers (e.g. households) have a regulated
tariff, supplied by Market Support Services Licencee, SP
Services
• No formal forward/financial derivative market
• Vesting contracts in place to mitigate market power
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Location Map of NEMS Generators
Electricity interconnection
with Malaysia
Natural gas pipeline
from Malaysia
Senoko Power
Keppel Cogen
Tuas Power
PowerSeraya
SembCorp
Natural gas pipeline from
West Natuna
Represents incineration plants operated
by the National Environment Agency
Note: The Locations indicated on this map have
been approximated and stylised. They do not
accurately represent the actual physical location
of individual facilities
Natural gas pipeline from
Sumatra (Asamera)
4
Industry players
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Regulator: Energy Market Authority
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Market operator: EMC
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Power System Operator: PSO/EMA
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Reliable supply/secure operation
Transmission licensee: SP PowerGrid (SP PowerAssets)
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Operates & maintains transmission system
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Active generation companies: 6
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Market support services licensee (MSSL): SP Services
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Active electricity retailers: 5
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Meter reading & electricity supply to non-contestable consumers
Sell electricity directly to contestable consumers.
Wholesale Market Traders: 2
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Providing interruptible load
5
Market governance
• The day-to-day functioning of the market is governed by
the market rules
• Rules Change Panel oversees development of the
market rules
• Market Surveillance and Compliance Panel monitors
rules compliance, market efficiency and fairness
• Disputes Resolution Counsellor facilitates the resolution
of disputes
• The Regulator (Energy Market Authority) licences all
market participants
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Registered Capacity, Peak Demand and
Reserve Margin 1997/2006
Registered Capacity
Peak Demand
Reserve Margin (%)
%
MW
12,000
100
10,000
80
8,000
60
6,000
40
4,000
20
2,000
0
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
• As of 2006, Singapore has a reserve margin of about 88%
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Reliability of electricity supply
Transmission
• Transmission system consists of network of 400 kV,
230 kV and 66 kV substations interconnected by
approximately 5,000 km of underground cables
• Intertie connection with Malaysia assists to ensure stable
and reliable power system
• Load shedding plan in place to ensure that industrial/
critical needs are met first in contingency/emergency
situations
• Lowest System Average Interruption Duration Index with
0.5 mins outages/ per customer/ per year based on latest
KEMA study among 26 global market places
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Registered Capacity 2006
CCGT
ST
GT
Licensed Capacity
MW
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Senoko
Power
PowerSeraya
Tuas
Power
SembCorp
Cogen
Keppel Merlimau
Cogen
National Environment
Agency
9
Market Share by Plant Type 2003/06
2003
2004
2005
2006
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
CCGT
ST
ST Incineration
10
Monthly Average Demand 2003/mid 2007
MW
4900
4700
4500
4300
4100
3900
3700
3500
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
Nov-06
Sep-06
Jul-06
May-06
Mar-06
Jan-06
Nov-05
Sep-05
Jul-05
May-05
Mar-05
Jan-05
Nov-04
Sep-04
Jul-04
May-04
Mar-04
Jan-04
Nov-03
Sep-03
Jul-03
May-03
Mar-03
Jan-03
11
USEP, System Demand and Offered
Capacity 2006
Daily Average USEP
Forecast Daily System Demand
Offered Capacity
$/MWh
MW
1
2
3
4
7,000
240
6,000
220
200
5,000
180
4,000
160
3,000
140
120
2,000
100
1,000
80
60
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Note: Prices above $240/MWh are not displayed
12
USEP, System Demand and Offered
Capacity for Jan-July 2007
Offered Capacity
Forecast Daily System Demand
Daily Average USEP
MW
$/MWh
240
7000
220
6000
200
5000
180
160
4000
140
3000
120
2000
100
1000
80
60
Jan
0
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
13
Oil Prices and USEP 2006
USEP
180-CST HSFO
WTI
Oil Prices
USEP
US$/barrel
S$/MWh
180
80
75
160
70
140
65
60
120
55
100
50
45
80
40
60
35
30
40
25
20
20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
14
Wholesale Electricity Price vs
Oil Price 2003/06
WEP
180-CST HSFO
2003 is the reference year
%
200
150
100
50
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
Since 2003, the wholesale electricity price (WEP) has increased at only about half the rate of the fuel oil price. WEP is
the net purchase price paid by retailers inclusive of all administrative costs incurred in the wholesale market.
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Market performance
• Electricity prices respond to fundamentals of demand and
supply
• Competition has cushioned impact of oil prices on
electricity prices (2003 to 2006)
• Savings in reserve costs
• Structural shift from oil to gas-fired generation with over 2
million tons of CO2 emissions savings
• Evidence of retail competition e.g. active switching
16
Trends and Outlook
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Steady demand growth
New generation investment has entered the market e.g. Keppel and
further planned e.g. Island Power
New cogen and trigen facilities announced or under construction
Greater competition in the reserve market with demand side
participation (interruptible load)
Vesting contract quantity reducing
Pilot announced for household contestability
First MSCP Investigation into market power
Shift to gas as dominant fuel source
Concerns expressed over long term piped gas supply; ormulsion supply
disrupted
LNG terminal planned
ASEAN discussions recommenced over interconnected grid
Divestment of 3 government owned generators taking place
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