Transcript Land-use futures in the Eden catchment: Carlisle socio

Land-use futures in the Eden
catchment: Carlisle socio-economic
futures
Sylvia Tunstall and Hazel Faulkner
Flood Hazard Research Centre
Middlesex University
FRMRC2 – Eden Flood Modelling Workshop, Carlisle 9 & 10 May 2011
INTEGRATING
ACTIVITIES
CHALLENGES
Upstream
agricultural
future(s) to be
modelled?
Joe Morris
Climatic futures scenarios Jim Hall
Changes to size of 200-year
Changes to size of 10 year
ppn event
ppn event
…after 25 years ?
…after 25 years ?
…after 50 years?
…after 50 years?
Input
to
hydr.
model
Key tipping points?
Mechanisms for model
integration?
parameterisation of Carlisle urban
modelling?
boundary conditions to be
input to Carlisle model?
Agreement on combined
soc-ec futures?
Carlisle socio-economic future(s)
over which timescales?
Sylvia Tunstall
Headwater
hydrological model
parameter
requirements
Stuart Lane
Channel routing
model parameter
requirements
Tom
Coulthard/Stuart
Lane
Carlisle inundation model
requirements
Jeff Neal/Paul Bates/Keith Beven
Objectives of this project on urban Carlisle
socio-economic futures
To show:
• Different Foresight type scenarios;’
• Over time periods: 20/5, 50 years
• Output: part of a 5,000 + word report
Research Methods
• 11 semi-structured interviews with key local and regional
informants, 10 face to face, one telephone interview,
completed between 22 June and 10 August 2009
• A review of 17 main relevant local and regional documents
• Report March 2010
Overview of the Eden
catchment.
Carlisle in NW of
catchment.
Eden, Caldew and
Petteril rivers all flow
through the District
Source: River Eden,
Cumbria CFMP
Carlisle City Council Area
•Close to Scottish Border
and Gretna Green to north
•A small city, population
105,200 in 2008
• about 30% of Carlisle
District‘s population is rural,
many in sparsely populated
areas
•Solway and Pennines
AONB
•Northumberland and Lake
District NP,
• Eden Valley, Rivers Eden,
Caldew and Petteril rivers
Urban Carlisle
The focus of the study
About 70% of Carlisle
District ‘s population is
in this urban area
City of Carlisle today
(Growing Carlisle: An Economic Strategy for the Carlisle City
Region, Carlisle Renaissance , January 2008)
• Freestanding small city : nearest major conurbations
Newcastle 60 miles to the East, Glasgow to the North
• County town of Cumbria, administrative centre
• Historic cathedral city, Hadrian’s Wall nearby, 2000 years of history
• University city with creation of University of Cumbria in 2007
• Diverse and stable local economy: food production, retail, transport and
services, tourism
• High employment levels but low wages and GVA c.f. NW and England
• Low levels of educational attainment c.f. NW and England
• 6 wards in urban Carlisle within 20% most deprived in England according
to the Index of Multiple Deprivation
Conceptualising and modelling socio-economic change
Socio-economic modelling techniques used in Carlisle
• ONS demographic modelling
• POPGROUP, a population forecasting tool supplied by Manchester
University for forecasts to 2031 for Carlisle population/housing scenarios
• Experian economic forecasting model linked to POPGROUP used for
Carlisle economic scenarios to 2016
(for both see: Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006-2011, Carlisle City Council
2009)
• Cambridge Econometrics’ Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) for
projections of Carlisle economy to 2020
(see Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT analysis, SQW Ltd.
2006)
Issues
• Based on past trends and depend on accurate baseline data
• Do not reflect downturn in UK/world economy 2008 -2010 onwards
• Linking models added uncertainty
Growing Carlisle: a policy consensus and aspiration
2005 floods: a catalyst for making Carlisle a better place by growing
Carlisle’s population and economy
Endorsed by documents and analyses:
• Carlisle Renaissance: Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis (SQW Ltd
December 2006
• Carlisle Renaissance/Carlisle Partnership (2008) Growing Carlisle: An
economic Strategy for Carlisle City Region
• Cumbria Economic Strategy 2009-2019 (Cumbria Vision/Cumbria Strategic
Partnership 2009)
• Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006/2011 Carlisle Housing Market Area
(Carlisle City Council 2009
• North West of England Plan: Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021
(government Office for the North West, 2008)
• Carlisle Growth Point: Programme of Development (Carlisle City Council
2008)
• Cumbria Housing Strategy 2006-2011, (Carlisle City Council 2009)
Growing Carlisle: Opportunities
(Cumbria Economic Strategy 2009-19, 2009)
• Population growth: Growth point status confirmed by
Government
• Prioritisation for growth within the Regional Economic
Strategy – public and private sector investment
• Establishment of the University of Cumbria HQ in Carlisle
• Development of Carlisle Airport
• Development of key economic sectors e.g. tourism, retail,
food, logistics, financial and business, education and health
• Scope for allocation of additional land for housing and
employment: land is available
Scenarios for population growth in Carlisle District
relative to national projected trends
Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy 2008
Population scenarios
Population
Approx 25 years
by 2029
Approx. 50 years
by 2054
Growth
Population
number
Annual rate of
increase **
Population
number ***
Current
projection
112,000 *
270
119,000
50% above
national rate
120,000 *
610
135,000
Twice national
rate
127,000 *
890
149,000
* Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy 2008
** Assumes a base population of 104,000 approx
*** Assumes that the same annual rate continues to 2054
Housing scenarios: Population lead. Source: Cumbria Housing
Strategy 2006/2011 (Carlisle City Council 2009)
No of dwellings
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
A
B
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2006
2016
2031
2051
A No net migration scenario - 8,000 extra dwellings by 2051
B Migration at same rate as previous 5 years scenario – 22,000
dwellings by 2051 – EU accession migrants, retirees
Source: POP-GROUP population forecasting software Cumbria CC 2008
extra
Housing scenarios: Dwelling led. Source: Cumbria Housing
Strategy 2006/2011 (Carlisle City Council 2009)
No. of dwellings
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
C
D
E
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2006
2016
2031
2051
C Dwellings built at rate of past 5 years (320 p.a) – 14,000 extra by
2051
D Dwellings built at RSS target rate (450 p.a) - 20,000 extra by 2051
E Dwellings built at the Growth Point bid rate (600 p.a) – 24,000 extra
by 2051
Source: POP-GROUP population forecasting software Cumbria CC 2008
Employment Growth scenarios (Carlisle City Council 2009)
No of FTEs
54,000
53,000
52,000
51,000
A
B
C
50,000
49,000
48,000
47,000
46,000
2006
• Experian forecasting model
used to generate 3
employment scenarios for
Carlisle to 2016 only.
• Also linked to POP-GROUP
to model dwellings under
3 scenarios
2016
A Worst case scenario: Carlisle economy particularly badly affected by
national and global recession and does not recover fast – 1,000 decline in
FTEs to 2016
B Baseline scenario: projects Carlisle’s future on basis of past trends and
assumes no policy impacts – modest growth, 900, in FTEs to 2016
C Aspirational scenario: Carlisle’s future as per Carlisle Renaissance and
Capital Growth plans – significant growth, 3,800, in FTEs to 2016
Carlisle sector employment projections to 2020
Expanders: sectors where both GVA (Gross Value Added) and
employment projected to expand 2006-2020
Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis 2006. LEFM
projections (pre 2008-2010+ recession) Note bubble size reflects 2006 GVA
Carlisle sector employment projections to 2020
Adjusters: sectors which will adjust to remain competitive - GVA
will increase but employment will fall 2006-2020
Source: Carlisle Renaissance Economic Strategy SWOT Analysis 2006. LEFM
projections (pre 2008-2010+ recession) Note bubble size reflects 2006 GVA
Carlisle sector employment projections to 2020
Shrinkers: sectors where both GVA and employment are
projected to decline 2006-2020
Implications of socio-economic futures for flood risk
These will depend on:
• How much and what future residential and employment
development (scenarios considered above)
• Planning policies, availability and allocation of development
land also on private sector decisions
• Where: geographic location of development in relation to
flood risk
Development and flood risk
• Most of the urban area at risk/flooded in 2005 will have flood
defences to the 1 in 200 standard.
• Carlisle District Local Development Plan (2008) robust policies for
floodplains (developed or undeveloped) and coastal land
reflecting PPS 25 (LE 27 and LE 28)
• Extreme flood events
Planning policies and land allocations
Three possible options for future land allocations.
•
Brownfield sites mainly City Centre. RSS required 50% of housing development on
this land.
Rickergate and Caldew Riverside flood plain sites identifies for redevelopment.
•
Areas on the fringe of built up City. No greenbelt in Carlisle. Mostly not in 1 in
100 floodplain.
e.g. planned development of 800 houses and other facilities at Morton, not
floodplain
•
Developments in /outside City urban area adjacent to M6 Junctions J42, J43 and
J44 (near Kingmoor Business Park.) Some land near J42 and J43 (Rosehill) at flood
risk
EA - development of Carlisle possible without using flood risk land
Morton development area: South West of urban Carlisle
Carlisle District Local Plan 2001-2016 Proposals Map 2004
Eastern edge of
urban Carlisle
Rosehill
interchange
Junction 43
Northern edge of
urban Carlisle
Junction 44 M6
Kingmoor
Business Park
Northern
Development
Route
City centre
Rickergate
redevelopment
site
Civic Centre
Former police
and
Fire station
City centre
Caldew
riverside site
Carlisle urban futures scenarios
Three scenarios:
• Low growth scenario
• Moderate growth /business as usual scenario
• High aspirational growth scenario
Summary Low Growth Scenario: No increase and possible decline
in property /people at risk in 1 in 100 FRA URBAN AREA
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Population: static or decline - No net migration, 71,000 in 2006 in urban area
Economy/employment: Low growth, stagnant or shrinking
Housing Extra dwellings: in 203 , in 2051: most outside FRAs
Health, public administration: No building on Rickergate site
Education: No Cumbria University HQ etc on Caldew Riverside
Leisure: Sands Centre 25% increase in size, No new theatre.
Tourism: No 4 star hotel and conference facilities on Rickergate site
Food manufacturing: increased investment , decline in employment. Of major
firms, only McVities at risk, might relocate.
Other manufacturing: decline, possible loss of major firm e.g. Pirelli through
restructuring/relocation but major firms are not in the 1 in 100 FRA
Transport, distribution: limited airport expansion and distribution, not in FRA
CNDR developed by 2031 but EA approved . No Southern Relief Road.
No expansion of business and professional, digital and creative industries.
Summary: moderate growth/business as usual scenario: modest
increase in property /people at risk in 1 in 100 FRA: URBAN AREA
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Population: modest net migration and growth in population to 75,000 in 2051
Housing (current rate): Extra dwellings: 5,000 by 2031 , 10,000 in 2051: 5% FRAs?
Employment (baseline): modest increase in FTEs, I,700 by 3031; 2,700 by 2051
Retail: limited development of part of Rickergate site for retail
Health, public administration: small redevelopment on Rickergate site
Education: Cumbria University HQ on part of Caldew Riverside site
Leisure: Sands Centre 50% increase in size, No new theatre.
Tourism: No 4 star hotel and conference facilities on Rickergate site
Food manufacturing: increased investment , stable employment. No loss of major
firms.
Other manufacturing: No or low growth, no loss of major firm e.g. Pirelli ; major
firms are not in the 1 in 100 FRA
Transport,/distribution: Further airport expansion and distribution
CNDR developed by 2031 but EA approved . No Southern Relief Road.
Small expansion of business and professional, digital and creative industries.
Summary: aspirational/growth point bid scenario: some increase
in property /people at risk in 1 in 100 FRA: URBAN AREA
• Population: substantial net migration, growth in population to 81,000 in 2031, to
92,000 in 2051
• Housing (Growth Bid rate): Extra dwellings: 10,000 by 2031, 18,000 in 2051: 5%
FRAs?
• Employment (baseline): modest increase in FTEs, I,700 by 3031; 2,700 by 2051
• Retail: substantial development of part of Rickergate site for retail
• Health, public administration: Full redevelopment of Rickergate site
• Education: Cumbria University on all of Caldew Riverside site and adjacent sites
• Leisure: Sands Centre 100% increase in size, new theatre.
• Tourism: A 4 star hotel and conference facilities on Rickergate site
• Food manufacturing: increased investment , stable employment.
• Other manufacturing: some growth, no loss of major firm e.g.
• Transport,/distribution: Significant airport expansion and distribution
• CNDR developed by 2031. Southern Relief Road by 2051.
• Large expansion of business and professional, digital and creative industries.
Next steps
Modelling under the three socio-economic futures
scenarios looking at the impact of particular
developments on the models.
So far: Two Futures :
"Future 1" is based on developing the Caldew
Riverside site where it was planned to locate the
University of Cumbria HQ and buildings
"Future 2" which is not likely at all includes a housing
estate next to the motorway in addition to the Caldew
development.
Depth and velocity have been modelled for these
“Futures”.
Thank you
Key drivers of future flood risk
(Foresight: Future Flooding, Executive Summary)
Sources drivers: climate change/
emissions (medium effect)
Precipitation
Relative sea level rise
Surges
Pathways drivers (relatively small
effect)
Rural land management
Urbanisation
National wealth change
Receptors (larger effect)
Social impacts
Infrastructure impacts
Buildings and contents
Environmental
regulation inc. FRM
Factors external to the local economy
• Global and national shock e.g. banking crisis and recession 2008-9
• Regional and local shocks e.g.
Foot and Mouth Disease in Cumbria 2001
Flooding in Cumbria and Carlisle 2005
• National and local policy decisions e.g. Govt. decision to grant Carlisle
‘Growth Point’ status. Cumbria and Carlisle Districts commitment to
growth
• Private sector decisions: Regional and local government can plan but many
plans can only be realised in partnership with private sector or by private
sector alone
Conceptualising socio-economic change
Key factors are interrelated but relationships are complex and interactive
• Right employment opportunities needed to attract migrants
but
• Critical mass of population needed to support services and businesses
that will attract more people and investment
• Right type of housing needed to attract migrants and employees
• Not all population growth will require employment opportunities e.g.
retirees, self-employed
• Employment/housing may be located outside the area e.g. urban Carlisle
depending on propensity to travel to work