Transcript Framework for Sustained Peace, Development, and Poverty

Framework for Sustained Peace,
Development, and
Poverty Eradication
Dr. Taj Elsir Mahjoub
Nairobi 2005
Outline
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5.
6.
JAM: Motivation, Objectives, Scope and
Process
Emerging Shared Vision for Poverty
Eradication Strategy and MDGs
Program and policy priorities
Financing Needs and Institutional
Arrangements
Monitoring Arrangements
Conclusion
1. Motivation: Machakos Protocol, 2002
 Lays out the parties’ vision to achieve sustained peace
 Addresses key causes of the conflict
 Presents a historic opportunity to overcome the devastation of
war and neglect (5Rs)
 Need for extraordinary efforts to realise this opportunity
JAM: Objectives and Scope
 Objectives:
Assessment and costing of the reconstruction and development
requirements for consolidation and sustenance of peace in the postconflict Sudan
 Framework for sustained peace, development and poverty eradication
with clear benchmarks for assessing progress
 Scope and Emphasis:
 Diagnostic: Quantitative, qualitative, field work, conflict, environment
and gender analysis and consultations
 Poor and most disadvantaged parts of the country,
 Policies and programs focus on poverty eradication, acceleration to
reach the MDGs and on redressing disparities
 Thematic Areas: Institutional development, rule of law, economic
policy, productive sectors, basic social services, infrastructure,
livelihoods and social protection, and information and statistics)
 Covers reconstruction and development needs within national
priorities, efforts and budget commitments
 Covers the Interim Period, through 2011, but focuses on critical first
two years (2005-07)

JAM: Process and Structure
 Conducted by the World Bank and the United Nations
 Partnership with technical teams from GOS and SPLM
 Substantial input from Civil Society and international
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development partners
Focus on capacity building
Running for nearly one year, in parallel to the peace process,
and to support the peace process through joint technical
dialogue and policy training
Ownership Process: Ensure local ownership and buy-in from
domestic and international stakeholders through broad-based
consultations
Structure: (Core Coordination Group, Core Teams,
Higher/National Committees, Council of Ministers/ Leadership
Council)
December 2003: CCG established in Nairobi
February 2004: Preparatory phase initiated
JAM Timeline
May 2004: Signing of 3 Naivasha Protocols
August 2004: Joint Poverty Eradication Strategy developed by parties
September 2004: Official launch of JAM at joint retreat in Nairobi
September 2004: IPF meeting in Oslo
Dec 04/Jan 2005: Joint sectoral sessions/workshops
January 2005: Signing of the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement
Jan/Feb 2005: Core team to draft synthesis
report – GoS, SPLM, UN, WB – in Addis Ababa
March 2005: Final report circulated to donors
April 2005: Donors conference in Oslo
2. Emerging Shared Vision for Poverty
Eradication and the MDGs
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Implementing the CPA;
Building decentralised governance, characterised by transparency
and accountability;
Ensuring macro-stability;
Comprehensive capacity building programmes at all levels;
Enabling environment for private sector and rural development;
Empowering local communities and civil society groups;
Managing resources in an environmentally sound way
Exerting maximum efforts to spread a culture of peace
Promoting access to services
Building a sound and simple system to monitor and evaluate
progress towards the MDGs
Patterns of Growth and Poverty
 Important economic gains achieved in 1990s following macro
stabilization, but pattern of growth is unbalanced
Wide poverty variation both between--and within--North,
South, and three areas
North
South
(Darker color indicates higher level of poverty)
Human Development Index
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
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State-level and Cross-Country Comparison
 Disparities in outcomes large, both across states and compared to
neighbors and countries with similar income levels, with Southern
Sudan among the worst in the world
 Worse-off states are comparable to Ethiopia, which has a much
lower per capita income
3. Program And Policy Priorities
 Two broad phases:
 Immediate recovery and consolidation of
peace in the first 2 ½ years (mid-2005-2007)
 Scaling-up for MDGs in Phase II (through
2011)
 Embedded in the CPA, and building on the
principles laid out for the Poverty Eradication
Strategy (PRSP)
National Government (NG) and
Northern States

Committed to strategic objectives:
1.
Enable consolidation of the CPA at all levels through capacity
building and increased political commitment;
2.
Improve governance through promoting human rights,
decentralization, improved management capacity, and anticorruption measures;
3.
Broad-based growth of income-earning opportunities through
stable macroeconomic framework and policy reform; and
4.
Expanding access to basic services.
 Cross-cutting objective: Ensure pro-poor programs that make unity
attractive
Phase I JAM costs for National Government
(including Three Areas) by Cluster (million US$)
Capacity building & institutional
development
Governance and rule of law
Economic policy
Productive sectors
Basic social services
Infrastructure
Livelihoods and social protection**
Information & statistics
Total
2005*
2006
2007
39
Phase I
Total
78
Share of
total (%)
2
11
28
21
23
93
217
17
68
7
458
56
63
203
580
47
180
25
1183
56
44
211
697
318
161
27
1552
133
130
507
1495
382
409
59
3193
4
4
16
47
12
13
2
100
Notes: * For 2005, July-December only. ** Excluding DDR (estimates not yet available). For details see Volume II.
Costs, in particular for infrastructure, will be revised based on further technical analysis and studies.
Government of Southern Sudan
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Strategic objectives:
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Developing physical infrastructure for roads, river and air;
Prioritizing agriculture, and promoting private sector development;
Restoring peace and harmony (including through access to basic services,
including health, education and water);
Regenerating social capital (including safe return and reintegration of IDPs
and refugees); and
Developing institutional infrastructure for better governance, focusing on
public service and service delivery capacity.
Cross-cutting objectives:
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Achieve rapid results while building long term capacity; and
clustering of services to enable development planning decisions in the short to
medium term.
 Ambitious program that would be accelerated further provided that
implementation proceeds rapidly. Early commitments necessary to build
capacity
Phase I JAM costs for Southern Sudan by
Cluster (Million US$)
Capacity building & institutional development
Governance & rule of law
Economic policy
Productive sectors
Basic social services
Infrastructure
Livelihoods and social protection**
Information & statistics
Total
2005*
2006
2007
107
30
1
55
138
197
76
5.1
608
236
67
2
120
415
260
177
13.0
1290
268
46
2
133
442
556
194
13.3
1655
Phase I
Total
611
144
4
308
995
1013
446
31
3553
Share of
total (%)
17
4
0.1
9
28
29
13
1.0
100
Notes: * For 2005, July-December only. ** Excluding DDR (estimates not yet available). For details see
Volume II. Costs, in particular for infrastructure, will be revised based on further technical analysis and studie
 For infrastructure:
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Phased strategy with rapid scale-up once adequate
planning and management capacity is in place and
technical and feasibility studies have been prepared
Higher assessed needs to be presented for 2007 if
sufficient implementation capacity in place
4a. Financing Needs: Phase I (US $ billions)
Total JAM needs Financing gap
National Government
of which Three Areas
Government of Southern Sudan
4.3
0.7
3.6
1.2
Total
7.9
2.6
1.4
 High and rising Pro-Poor Ratio, Declining External Share (%)
2004
2005
2006
2007
11
14
27
30
-
40
36
18
-
45
65
72
43
41
39
National Government
Poverty reducing/Non-South expenditure
Share of JAM financed externally
Government of Southern Sudan
Pro-poor/Total spending
Share of JAM financed externally
4b. Aid Management Arrangements and the
Multi-Donor Trust Funds
“In fragile states, as we support state-building and delivery of basic services, we
will ensure that the principles of harmonization, alignment and managing for
results are adaptable to environments of weak governance and capacity”
Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness, March 2005
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Donors asked to work mostly through two MDTFs, established in the CPA, to
minimize fragmentation and transaction costs:
 One for NG for North and the Three Areas
 One for Southern Sudan
 World Bank as administrator
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In the South, MDTF to be implemented by a Program Implementation Agency
(PIA); appropriate arrangements being put in place in the North
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Regular “consortium” meetings to assess results, discuss future directions, and
renew pledges
5. Monitoring Framework
 Immediate start to monitoring of JAM implementation to cultivate a
results-based focus and culture of public & donor accountability.
 Results matrices have been developed
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At the cluster level
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Overall summary monitoring framework
 Monitoring framework is instrument for dialogue at several levels: Line
agency, cabinet, NG and GOSS - donor and donor-donor
 reported to Sudan Consortium
 Designed to be comprehensive –including security and political --
framework – and with integral link to emerging Poverty Eradication
Strategy
Sample of Summary Monitoring Framework
Up to end December 2005
1 – Institutions & Decen.
2 – Governance & Rule of Law
NG, GOSS: Decentralization and competencies NG: Interim National Constitution adopted
of lower levels of government clarified
3 – Economic Policy
NG: Policies conducive for macroeconomic
stability with high growth maintained
NG, GOSS: National Civil Service Commission
established
All levels: National Assembly, Council of State NG: Bank of Sudan restructured including
Assembly, and State Legislature established
establishment of Bank of Southern Sudan
branch, enacting banking laws, rules &
borrowing regulations
GOSS: New Ministries established
NG, GOSS, 3 A: Commissions, institutions,
etc. as agreed in CPA established and
operational
GOSS: Adoption of Southern Sudan
constitution, and state constitutions
NG: Finalize preparations and begin issuance
of the new currency
NS, 3 A: State constitutions adopted
GOSS: MDTF operational
3 A: Requirements for state governments in
Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile reviewed.
Abyei Executive Council
GOSS: System and formula for
intergovernmental transfers established
NG: National Petroleum Commission, MTDF
operational
NG: Framework for Civil Service Reform
NG, GOSS: Review of regulatory framework for NG, GOSS: Public Expenditure Review (PER)
approved including resizing plans and review of NGO and media underway
initiated, and work on functional
pay structure
classification of the budget continues
GOSS: Recruitment policy and stocktaking of
civilian employees finalized
NG, GOSS: Begin review of customary laws
and practices
GOSS: Local Government Act adopted
3 A: Decision of the Abyei Boundaries
Commission published
GOSS: Auditor General and internal auditors in NG: Review of regulatory framework for media
place
NG, GOSS: JNTT, including monitoring and
evaluation unit, established
NG: FFAM established & begin work on
progressive and transparent formula for state
transfers
All levels: Media communication strategy
developed to support peace, returnees
All levels: Joint Interim Poverty Eradication
Strategy (I-PES) elaborated in a participatory
way and finalized
Conclusions
1.
Historic opportunity building on CPA
2.
Fully owned and locally grounded framework
3.
Basis for policy and programs to address
challenges ahead jointly with development
partners, focused on results
4.
Implications for Darfur