Transcript Sex, Lies, and Global Warming Fred Loxsom

Global Sustainable Development –
a Physics Course
or
Sex, Lies, and Sustainable
Development
The transformation of
an Environmental
Physics Course for
non-science students.
Fred Loxsom Greenville, SC
Is Global Warming Real?
Yes! Global average surface temperature has
increased by more than 1ºF since 1850.
Is this warming anthropogenic?
Yes. But, it is also natural. Observed
warming is the result of both natural
processes and human impacts!
Natural processes lead to climate
cycles with periodic fluctuations
in global temperature.
We are in an
interglacial period.
During the last Ice
Age the Earth’s
surface was 10 ºF
colder.
Human activities may cause
temperature changes comparable
to natural changes.
Human activities
produce
atmospheric
aerosols that cool
the Earth and
greenhouse gases
that heat the Earth.
Lie #1
Nature can absorb whatever
abuse humans dish out.
Not True!
Ozone hole
Big Bend haze
Rio Grande flow
Species Extinctions
Greenhouse Warming
The surface
temperature of the
earth is determined by
the balance between
the energy gain from
solar radiation and the
energy loss by IR
radiation.
Greenhouse Warming:
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases
allow sunlight to reach
the surface, but absorb
IR radiation from the
surface. These effects
cause the surface of
the Earth to get hotter.
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gases
include:
Water Vapor
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Chlorofluorocarbons
Tropospheric ozone
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
The major greenhouse
gas.
It is an evitable
consequence of
burning fossil fuels:
Oil, Natural gas, Coal
Atmospheric CO2
We emit 20 billion tons per year.
60% stays in atmosphere
Increases atmospheric CO2 by 0.4% / year.
25% increase from 280 ppm to 350 ppm
Global Warming Predictions
If Carbon Dioxide concentration doubles:
Global Mean Surface Temperature increases by 5 ºF.
Depending on growth of consumption, this could
happen in this century.
Lie #2
The science is unclear.
The science is clear
and the news is bad.
Nearly every
atmospheric scientist
accepts the data and
analysis leading to the
prediction of global
warming.
Global Warming Consequences
Agricultural Loss.
Extreme Weather.
Sea Level Rise.
Ecological Impacts.
Economic Loss.
Sex
“We have met the enemy and he is us”
World Population is
6.3 billion and still
rising.
• GHG emissions
• Destruction of
Carbon Sinks
It’s the Economy, Too!
US has 5% of
world population
US emits 25% of
all GHG.
So a U.S. baby has 5 times the global warming
impact as the average baby and 10 times the
global warming impact as a Chinese baby.
Oil Consumption has other
environmental costs.
• Extraction in
pristine areas.
• Air pollution –
acid rain, smog, etc.
• Do we need all
those SUVs?
Oil Supplies are Limited
• US imports 60%
of its oil.
• World oil
production will
pass peak within 20
years
How do we deal with these
problems?
“Sometimes a man
(or woman) has to do
what a man (or
woman) has to do.” –
John Wayne updated
Sustainable Development and
Use of Renewable Energy
Sustainable Development
Rio Declaration on Environment and
Development
Principle 3
The right to development must be fulfilled so
as to equitably meet developmental and
environmental needs of present and future
generations.
Sustainable Development
Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
Principle 9
States should cooperate to strengthen endogenous
capacity-building for sustainable development by
improving scientific understanding through
exchanges of scientific and technological knowledge,
and by enhancing the development, adaptation,
diffusion and transfer of technologies, including new
and innovative technologies.
Conservation
To reduced the threat
of global warming, we
must reduce emission
of GHGs.
• Reduce Consumption
• Increase Efficiency
Solar Energy
• Passive Solar
• Active Solar
• Photovoltaic
Wind
• Local resource
• Renewable
• Economics look
good
• Some negative
environmental
impacts.
Hydroelectric
•
•
•
•
Local resource
Renewable
Capital Intensive
Some negative
environmental impacts.
Geothermal
•
•
•
•
Local resource
Inexpensive
Renewable?
Some negative
environmental
impacts.
A negative side-effect of Geothermal
Hydrocarbons
• Natural gas
may be a better
option than oil
or call
Nuclear Power
• Safety
• Waste Disposal
• Public
acceptance
Fuel Cells
• Secondary fuel
• Expensive
• Developing
stage
Transportation Policy
• CAFE standards
• Mass Transit
• Hybrid Vehicles
International Treaties
The US should
support the Kyoto
Protocol.
What’s the
downside?
US Objections to Kyoto
• Developing
nations not bound,
initially.
• Emission limits –
damage economy.
Lie # 3
The US has a Carbon Dioxide
Reduction Plan
• Emphasis of Bush
administration on
energy production.
• Any limits would
hurt the economy?
What should developing
countries do?
• Should they repeat the mistakes of the
developed countries?
Conclusions
 Fossil fuel consumption is contributing to
climate change.
 Sustainable development requires reduction
of fossil fuel consumption.
 There are viable options.
 National and International policy is crucial.
Let’s get to work!