Transcript Message by Arctic Council

U.S. Department of Energy
Arctic Black Carbon Project
by
John Storey, Vitaly Prikhodko, MengDawn Cheng
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
Kan Huang and Joshua Fu
University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN
Elke Hodson and Joseph Cresko
Department of Energy, Washington, DC
Presentation for the TFEIP/USEPA/USDOE Workshop on
Arctic Black Carbon
Milan, Italy May 13,2015
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Arctic Black Carbon Initiative: Copenhagen Summit, December 2009
• Arctic BC Initiative goals:
Fill information gaps
2) Identify implementation barriers and develop approaches to overcome them
3) Demonstrate and evaluate technological and non-technological mitigation options
4) Where possible, to lay the groundwork to quantify the climate and public health
benefits of black carbon mitigation strategies
1)
• Sources of Arctic BC
1) Typically, fossil fuel combustion sources above 40°N latitude
2) Russian sources may represent as much as half of all BC sources above 60°N
Basis for Research: BC emissions in or near the Arctic have larger warming effect than
other climate forcers
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency – BC emissions from diesel & transportation
- U.S. Department of Agriculture – BC emissions from agriculture burning
- U.S. Department of Energy Project: Focus on industrial and heat and power sources
of BC
•
Funding for all three projects from the Department of State
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The Atmospheric Research Component
Back Trajectory Modeling
Observations of BC (or BC
proxy) at specific
monitoring sites.
Probable source location of
BC emissions (to < 250km)
Emission Inventory +Transport Modeling
Emissions Inventories – data from
scientific literature, inventory
reports, industry reports, dataset
documentation
Spatially allocated BC
concentrations (to ~ 10
km)
Russia Energy & Emission Scenario Tool –
energy use data by fuel, sector and region
from SRI collaboration
Tableau Geospatial
Visualization tool
time
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Objectives of Potential Source
Contribution Function (PSCF) Modeling
• To provide mitigation strategies by utilizing
environmental observations
• To identify geographical location of sources of ABC
emissions using reversed engineering approach
– Based on environmental data (transport, physical and
chemical characterization, etc.)
– Reconstructing source distribution at multiple scales
• To resolve atmospheric transport pattern of ABC
– Short- and long-term cycles (HF and LF components)
– Effects connecting multiple time and space scales
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Monitoring Stations for Back Trajectory Modeling
Environmental data
observation sites
• Alert Station: Multiple PM
species , aethalometer for
BC, multiple years
• Tiksi Bay, relatively new at
the time, uncharacterized
local sources, no other
species at time
• Barrow – only PM, no BC
wikipedia.com
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Pulsating Nature of Arctic Transport
Alert Black Carbon data 2000-2006
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• The concentrations are very seasonally dependent
due to changes in wind patterns and emissions
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Potential Source Contribution Function
(PSCF)
• A synthetic probability field describing the source
strength of a geographical area (i.e., a grid cell)
• Combine pollutant chemistry data taken at ambient
sites (receptors) with back trajectory data
– First analyze receptor pollutant time series to determine
source signal
– Fuse “signals” with calculated back trajectory over the time
domain
• A PSCF value > 0.6 indicates a likelihood of a grid cell
being an emission source, < 0.2 indicates a low
probability.
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Trajectory Clusters
The autumn cluster
The winter cluster
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Trajectory Clusters
The spring cluster
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Variation by season, and year observed
Alert Station maps, for 2000, 2001, and 2002
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Geographical Locations of BC Emission Sources
in Russia – at Alert Station, 2000-2006
Alert
Alert, Canada, 2004 Composite
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Comparing maps for BC and SO4=
• Alert Station Data
• Sulfate associated
with fossil fuel
combustion
BC
Sulfate
• The red circles show
areas that have both
high sulfate and high
black carbon
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Location of Power Plants from CARMA
180 °
E
°
80 N
°
60 N
°
40 N
°
0
Mu
Finland
Poland
Tik
Sp
Mo
20
0°
E
Ukraine
E
16
°
Russia
40
Kazakhstan
°
E
60 °
China
°
120
E
80 ° E
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°
0
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Mongolia
E
E
°
100 E
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Summary
• Backward trajectory modeling has been used to identify
Potential Source Contribution Functions (PSCF) for black
carbon in the Russian Federation
– Areas south of Moscow including Moscow consistently strong
(higher population density)
– Urals mountains (industry, oil/gas flaring, biomass burning in
season)
– Areas in Eastern Siberia (biomass burning, power plants)
• Geo-location results of sources consistent for both
Canadian and Russian receptors, with growing number
of sources over time
Atmos. Env. 92 (2014) 398-410
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.04.031
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Acknowledgements
• Funding support by State Department Climate Change Assistance
Programs, DOE Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Office
• Computational support at Oak Ridge National Laboratory
• Sangeta Sharma of Environment Canada on Alert Station Data
• Taneil Uttal of NOAA on Tiksi Bay Station Data
• Patricia Quinn of NAA on Barrow NOAA/ARM Data
• SRI Atmosphere for providing critical inventory data to this project
• Colleagues at US Forest Fire Services (WM Hao) and US EPA (T
Kuklinski) for discussion
• Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee is managed
by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy under
contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.
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Extra slides
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Tiksi Bay 2009-2012
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Geographical Locations of BC Emission
Sources in Russia – at Tiksi Bay 2009-2011
Alert
Tiksi
Tiksi Bay, 2009-2011 Composite
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Variation by season, and year observed
Tiksi Bay Station maps, for 2009, 2010, and 2011
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