Transcript 2011NACAA

California’s Perspective:
Emission Reductions from
Light Duty Vehicles
James N. Goldstene
Executive Officer
California Air Resources Board
1
Transformation of Light Duty Fleet
Clean, efficient vehicles are needed to meet
California’s health and climate change goals
• Significant near-term reductions in smog forming
emissions
• 80% reduction in GHGs from 1990 levels by 2050
This means that, by 2025,
• ZEV technology is commonplace with multiple
light duty platforms
• Fueling infrastructure is in place to meet increasing
vehicle demands
2
Path to 2050:
California’s On-Road Vehicle Fleet
LDV On-Road Vehicles
40,000,000
30,000,000
Hybrids
20,000,000
10,000,000
Plug-In
Hybrids
Hydrogen
Fuel Cell
& Battery
Electric
79%
Conventional
Vehicles
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
3
Advanced Clean Cars
Multi-pronged approach to meeting mid- and long-term
emission reductions from light duty vehicles
LEV III
Regulation
ZEV
Regulation
Clean Fuels Outlet
Regulation
4
Advanced Clean Cars Program
(Goals)
Peak Ozone - LA
Coordinated approach to
achieve criteria and
greenhouse gas goals
0.22
0.17
0.12
0.07
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
million metric tons CO2 eq
• Continued progress towards
ozone attainment
• Reduce localized exposure
– PM, toxics
• Reduce GHG emissions
Transp.
Sector 38%;
LDV 28%
– 80% by 2050
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1990
2004
2020
2050
5
Coordinated Advanced Vehicle
Standards
Standards
LEV III:
Timeframe
Objective
Criteria pollutants
(HC, NOx, PM)
2015-2025
Cleanest vehicles by
attainment date
Greenhouse gas
(CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC)
2017-2025
ZEV:
Ultra-low carbon
emissions and fuels
Clean Fuels Outlet
2018-2025
~2015+
~34% reduction
from 2016
Commercialize ZEVs
for increased market
share by 2025
Establish fueling
infrastructure until
market established
6
LEV III
7
LEV III –Smog Forming
Emission Reductions
• Reduces smog forming emissions by 74%
from 2011 levels
• ARB working with U.S. EPA to harmonize
state and federal Low Emission Vehicle
standards
• Light-duty fleet average emissions equal
to SULEV levels by 2025
8
LEV III – Greenhouse Gas
Reductions
Target Emission Reductions from GHG Standards
Proposed rulemaking GHG emissions (gCO2e/mi) Previous rule 350 300 250 200 150 100 2010 Truck Combined light duty Car 2015 2020 2025 Model year 9
ZEV
10
ZEV Regulation:
Guiding Principles
• 2025 ZEV volume targeted to reach
inflection point on battery and fuel cell cost
curves
• Total ZEV program vehicle % of new sales
consistent with market demand
• Vehicle technologies are common in
market place – i.e. multiple ZEV platforms
11
Proposed ZEV Requirements
Model Year 2015 - 2025
250,000
14% of 2025 New
Vehicle Sales
150,000
Battery
Electrics
100,000
9%
6%
Plug-In
Hybrids
50,000
0
2015
12%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
3%
2025
12
Annual % of New Vehicle Sales
Hydrogen
Fuel Cell
200,000
Annual Vehicle Sales
15%
Clean Fuels Outlet
13
Clean Fuels Outlet Regulation
• Ensure that enough fuel is
available to support ZEVs
when and where it is needed
• Encourage best possible
chance for success for both
fuel providers and automakers
• Needed to achieve 2050
greenhouse gas goals
14
Post-2025 Vision
15
Post-2025 Advanced Clean Cars
Program
• ZEV mandate through 2025 ensures ZEV
volumes, reduces risk of early market failure
• Once model and technology variety
established, performance standard will take
fleet to 2050
• Beyond 2025, rapid change to electric drive
vehicles with low carbon intensity fuels is
needed to meet 2050 goal
16
Advanced Clean Cars
LEV III
Regulation
ZEV
Regulation
Clean Fuels Outlet
Regulation
17