VUE

Thursday 27 November 2008 Vingstedcentret, Denmark Guidance in Scotland – demands, methods and results

Vivienne Brown, Head of Policy & Strategy Skills Development Scotland

Dynamic times

Globalisation & economic instabilities UK economic challenges Social well-being & cultural shifts Education, employment and skills Reforms Political elections which defy the pundits Fast moving technology and changing interpersonal communications

Key UK policies and strategies a critical time…

Leitch Review on skills – others in UK Economic strategies NEET and “worklessness” strategies Increase in vocational learning opportunities in school and beyond Investment in “Third Sector” Welfare Reforms and IES

Additionally, IAG landscape

Review of Careers Wales Changes to Connexions and design of new AACS in England Emergence of Skills Development Scotland from Careers Scotland Recent new all-age IAG developments and split from ES in Northern Ireland

Why do we need a Skills Strategy

“Skills development contributes to economic development from which …. other benefits flow, such as social justice, stronger communities & more engaged citizens.” but Scotland’s skills profile and qualification levels are not matched by its economic growth rate so ..it is not just about more skills… we need to address the demand for and utilisation of skills

Our Vision

A smarter Scotland with a globally competitive economy based on high value jobs, with progressive and innovative business leadership - people motivated & confident to learn new skills - small businesses & migrant workers encouraged - employers invest in and access to a skilled workforce - learning & training delivery = one system – barriers removed

Approach - Consensus

Skills nested within lifelong learning Improve employer voice, but not at the expense of the individual Create demand for skills, not increase the qualifications stockpile

Three Priorities

Individual development Economic pull Cohesive structures

Across the continuum of lifelong learning

A strong start – early years, compulsory education Developing potential – learning for the world of work for those out of the workforce Making skills work for Scotland – work based learning & role of employers Information, advice & guidance – support services Learner centred funding support

Individual Development

1.

Developing a distinctively Scottish Approach balancing the needs of employers & individuals & placing the individual at the centre 2.

Ensuring equal access to & participation in skills and learning for everyone 3.

Developing a coherent funding structure – that encourages participation & increases choice

Economic Pull

4. Stimulating demand for skills from employers –public & private 5. Improving skills utilisation 6. Understanding current & future projected demands for skills 7. Challenging employers, providers & awarding bodies to use the SCQF

Cohesive Structures

8.

Simplify structures - creating one body focused on skills

(Creation of Skills Development Scotland)

9.

Ensure

Curriculum for Excellence

skills acquisition is at the heart of 10. Achieve parity of esteem between academic & vocational learning 11. Challenge funding bodies to achieve a step change 12. Encourage training providers to bridge the gaps for learners

Strategic Fit

Sits below: Government Economic Strategy Budget Interacts with: Local Authority Concordat Sits alongside: Existing work eg MCMC Upcoming work: eg:Early Years Strategy; Science Strategy

Since Publication

Simplify structures - creating one body focused on skills a

Skills Development Scotland

Bringing together learndirect Scotland, Careers Scotland and most the skills and training aspects of Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Island Enterprise

Skills Development Scotland client groups

Developing our young people 12-19 Bringing people into work 20+ Developing talent in work 20+

Canada

Challenges and issues

Excellent OECD performance to date hides the underlying issues that there is no growth and no investment at the same levels of competitors in student access to higher education Lack of engagement with policy-makers and decision makers for career guidance and development Disconnect, and policy goal ambiguities, between potentially related policies in education, lifelong learning, social inclusion and economic development

Limited recognition that school to post-school transition is critical to life-chances of individuals Too much emphasis on school-university as the only “real” post-school route, coupled with access-for-all issues Learner funding directed at middle-class families Lack of lifelong learning culture, little attention to adult and community - based learners; and no QCF

Increasing disconnect between new graduate subject expertise and skills needs of the workforce Major geographical and distance issues – each province has a varying economy, income levels and educational and skills provision Unemployment has not been a recognisable concept for Aboriginal people, until now; increasing youth unemployment levels

Lack of integration of skilled immigrant workers Careers Advisers have no “professional” qualifications There is no government funded careers service – provision associated with and funded through learning institutions. Now a call for setting up an independent, public-funded Careers Service for those not engaged in work or learning.

No real public awareness of the role and value of career development No LMI, no data - sharing, no research to speak of, no pan –Canadian structures to engage discussions, no appetite for change in some quarters, and on-going resultant policy goal ambiguities

The top ten issues for access post-school

Who is “under represented”?

A “positional good”?

Access to what exactly?

Economic or social rates of return?

“Widening participation” or “fair access”?

Equity or excellence?

Merit or need Reputation or quality?

Reward or compensation?

What is to be done?

The “access” equation

(Age x Class x [Dis]ability x Ethnicity x Gender x Language x Location x Schooling x Status x Subject) A “perfect storm:” children in care.

See Jackson, Sonia, Ajayi, Sarah and Quigley, Margaret (2005),

Going to University from Care

.

A “positional good”?

“You can only enjoy a positional good if others don’t have it,” The Economist 23.12.06

“It’s not enough to succeed. Others must fail.” Gore Vidal “The trouble with fairness is that there isn’t enough to go around.” Guy Browning

Percentage change in enrolments by subject area, 1996/7 to 2005/06

Likelihood of Excellent Health - Women

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 2 1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1 B el ow A -L ev el A -L ev el & Eq ui va le nt N on -c om pl et io n Su Qualification b de gr ee M at ur e de gr ee D eg re e an d hi gh er

Institute of Education: Wider Benefits of Learning Group ( http://www.learningbenefits.net/Publications/ResearchReports.htm

)

Likelihood of Educational problems in children

1.2

1 0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 Bel ow A-L eve A-L l eve l&E qui vale nt Sub -de Qualification gre e

Institute of Education: Wider Benefits of Learning Group ( http://www.learningbenefits.net/Publications/ResearchReports.htm

)

Deg ree

Widening participation or “fair access”?

In England in 2007: 80,000 children were eligible for free school meals post 16 5,000 of these took A-levels 3,000 children got 3 “A” grades at A-level 176 of these were eligible for free school meals Written answer to Parliamentary question by Shadow Children’s Secretary Michael Gove,

The Guardian

23.2.08

SFC Funding Promoting Wider Access 2008-09

College funding £14.3M

Discretionary Fund and Child Care £ 4.5M

MCMC £ 1.6M

Access and Participation £20.4M

TOTAL HE Funding £10.2M

£ 2.5M

£ 5.1M

£ 3.1M

£20.9

Widening Access Retention Premium Disabled Students Premium Access and Participation Skills and Employability Total

What access issues are not about

Inadequate admissions tutors Irrational choices by students Debt aversion Supply-side defects

How can we improve access post school

Improving schools and the schooling experience Managing parental expectations within school and beyond National ambitions for Level 3 qualifications Genuine employer engagement and dialogue Expert careers Information Advice and Guidance, grounded by LMI

Why measure impact?

Does careers guidance and development have an impact? How do we know?

Can we articulate the impact of career guidance and development for individuals and specific projects and at higher policy or national levels?

Can impact determine what contribution career guidance and development can make in key policy areas i.e. economic, social and education?

Can impact evidence influence policy from an improved position of knowledge?

Can we create a value for career guidance?

Measuring Impact – first steps towards a conceptual impact model

undertook desk research using the available literature on impact of career guidance and development to date, in the UK and beyond created a set of hypotheses, with potential outcomes, based on the data review identified the degree of availability of evidence using a traffic light system

available evidence was used to estimate the likely effects of career guidance for each inferential statement we applied a GVA/GDP model of calculation to create an impact value hypotheses also indicated potential topics for future research

Research Study Outcomes

increased knowledge of the impact and value of Careers Scotland based on a developing Conceptual Impact Model advice on how better to articulate the impact and value of career guidance from a variety of viewpoints for stakeholders, partners, managers, staff and clients

identification of gaps in evidence provides opportunity to develop a Careers Scotland Research and Development strategy that can support future impact measurement as part of other research and evaluation

consideration of different approaches to widen the evidence base including longitudinal tracking, and other research with partners build-in impact and value in all future research and evaluation advice on developing our performance management systems, to improve our own data collection to measure impact

Hypotheses - the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements – Learning Goals

Outcomes

greater access to learning and training greater participation in learning and training higher retention rates in education and training greater education and training attainment; and higher level skills improved motivation and hence attainment in education and training

Impacts

higher wage levels through gaining higher qualifications increased entry rates through having a career focus

Hypotheses - the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements – Economic Goals

Outcomes

higher levels of participation in employment lower levels of unemployment improved job tenure through increased motivation at work a more responsive and flexible workforce improvements in the employability of individuals

Impacts

higher wage levels - a long run uplift in wages attributed to career guidance improved productivity

Hypotheses – the likely effects of career guidance on inferential statements - Social Goals

Outcomes

increased confidence increased well being which contributes to health benefits for society reductions in crime and offending behaviour greater levels of social inclusion

Impacts

reductions in lost earnings and lower productivity through “lost” education and training reductions in social security, NHS and other public costs

Applying a value – GDP/GVA calculations

Examples economic impact - increased workforce participation based on the calculation of an employment differential attributed to career guidance learning impact - increased attainment levels associated with career guidance and the resulting improved earnings associated with higher levels of attainment

social impact - costs avoided including the costs of unemployment GVA/GDP was calculated, using the evidence available, at more than

5

times Careers Scotland’s current annual budget approximately £250m

Additional Findings – soft indicators

The evidence used to develop the hypotheses also showed that career guidance and development: raises self-confidence and self-belief improves motivation, well-being and willingness to take calculated risks, based on improved understanding of work and learning goals supports individuals to set career goals which in turn drives stronger educational ambition and career aspiration

often works best in the medium to longer term, and as part of a “package” of support, especially for those from lower socio-economic backgrounds makes greatest impact on individuals with limited social ‘networks’, irrespective of academic ability can demonstrate a longer term uplift in wages for those who have career goals and undertaken progressive career development actions, thereby contributing to a lifelong learning and career development culture