Transcript Customer Support Consortium Annual Conference

Examine the Evidence
Roman Nowacki
Lucent Technologies
District Manager - Wireless
(630) 979-7354, [email protected]
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
- H. M. Warner, 1927
☼ “What do 13 people in Seattle know that we
don’t know?”
- Ross Perot, EDS, 1980
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ Challenges of Predicting the Future
• viewing future through filters
(optimist/pessimist)
• linear forecasting (future as more of the same)
• discontinuous changes
☼ Scenario Planning - tool to look into the future
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ A Short History of Scenario Planning
• Emerged in Military Planning - 50’s
• Hudson Institute (thinking about unthinkable) - 60’s
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Applied by Royal Dutch Shell and SRI - 70’s
Consulting Companies Established - 80’s, 90’s
Used by : GE, AT&T, Lucent, Erickson, Siemens
Applied to Customer Support Industry by the
Consortium - 1999
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ Definition:
Scenarios are stories which describe different,
though equally plausible, futures. They are a tool
for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative
future environments. They are combination of
estimation of what might happen and
assumptions about what could happen, but they
are not forecasts of what will happen.
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 1
Articulate WHAT question we are asking about the
future.
(example: What are the customer support and
service business models of the future?)
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 2
Identify Driving Forces
- technology
- economics
- society
- politics
- customer expectations
Rank and Analyze Driving Forces
Which are predetermined?
Which are uncertain?
Which are critical uncertainties?
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Driving Force: Moore’s Law
(Calculations per Second bought by $1,000)
40
10
35
10
30
10
Limit of
Moore’s Law?
- Optical
- DNA
- Quantum
- Etc.
Brains of all
Humans
25
10
One Human
Brain
20
10
15
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
55
One Mouse
Brain
10
10
-5
-5
10
10
-10
-10
10
10
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Kurzweil, Raymond, The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers
Exceed Human Intelligence. New York: Viking Penguin, 1999
2080 2100
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
One Insect
Brain
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 3
Discover Discontinuities
- disrupting technologies
- crossing the chasm
- impact of possible inventions
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM
Examine the Evidence
Using Scenarios to Navigate the Future
☼ Developing Scenarios - Step 4
Create Scenarios
- emerge into a possible future
- what does it look like?
- narrative description
- what is inevitable?
- what is uncertain?
- what is critical?
- redo and redo and redo
CUSTOMER SUPPORT
CONSORTIUM