Transcript Gender Specific Effects of Early

Demography of Russia and
the Former Soviet Union
Lecture 6
Sociology SOCI 20182
New Information about the
Schedule of Censuses in CIS
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2009 – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Belarus, Azerbaijan
2010 – Russia, Tajikistan
2011 – Armenia, Ukraine
2012 – Turkmenistan
?
- Uzbekistan, Moldova
Fertility measures
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8.
Crude Birth Rate, CBR
General Fertility Rate, GFR
Age-specific Fertility Rates, ASFR or Agespecific Birth Rates, ASBR
Marital Fertility Rate, MFR
Total Fertility Rate, TFR (period and
cohort)
Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR
Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
Parity Progression Ratios, PPR
Crude Birth Rate, CBR
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Number of births in the studied year
divided by average size of the
population during the year, per 1,000
persons:
Easy to calculate but depends not
only on individual-level childbearing
behavior, but also on age and sex
distribution of population.
Total Fertility Rate, TFR
Period total fertility rate, PTFR
 The average number of children a women
would bear in her life if she experiences
the age-specific fertility rates prevailing at
the study period.
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Total Fertility Rate, TFR, for a given year is
calculated by summing the age-specific
fertility rates for that year over the range
of reproductive ages.
Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
(period)
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The average number of DAUGHTERS a
women would bear in her life if she
experiences the age-specific fertility rates
(for daughters) prevailing at the study
period, AND if her daughters experienced
the prevailing rates of mortality.
Takes into account both fertility and
survival but difficult to calculate (detailed
data required). All problems of period
indicator (not applicable to real cohorts)
Age-specific fertility by residence in Belarus (2007)
Existing explanations of fertility
drop during the 1990s
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Economic crisis (uncertainty about the
future and increasing the costs of
child rearing)
Socio-cultural change (transition
towards more western practices of
family formation and childbearing)
Soviet pronatalist policies in the early
1980s (benefits for women giving
birth to the 3rd child, 3-year paid
maternity leave) – accelerated births
which otherwise would happen later
Distribution of Russian households by
number of children below age 18 in 2002
Families with many children in Russia
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Only 6.6% of families in Russia have
more than 3 children
Proportion of families with 3 and more
children differs from 53% in
Ingushetiya to 1% in St-Peterburg
Families with 3 and more children are
the poorest compared to families with
less children and have poor housing
conditions
However self-rated health of children
in these families does not differ from
families with less children
New Survey in Russia
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Two waves of demographic survey
“Parents and children, men and
women in family and society” as a part
of international scientific program
“Generations and Gender.”
First wave was conducted in 2004 and
had 11,261 respondents.
Second wave took place in 2007 and
had 11,117 respondents
Panel component – 7,786 respondents
aged 21-82 years.
Effect of income on fertility
(number of children per woman)
Higher income
Lower income
Other factors of fertility
(between two survey waves)
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Having a partner (formal marriage status not
important)
Previous children– probability of the second
child was almost twice as lower and
probability of the third and other child
almost 7 times as lower compared to the
first child
Rural residence (fertility in rural areas 1.4
times higher than in urban areas)
Maternal age – fertility is obviously higher
among younger women (<35 years)
Effect of education and employment status is
not strong
Factors of fertility decline (in %)
between 1989 and 1999 in Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyz
women
Total changes in TFR
Russian
women
-40.9
-41.3
1. Changes in marriage structure
(postponing marriage)
-15.2
-26.1
2. Induced abortions
-10.0
-8.5
3. Other (contraception, longer
lactation, etc.)
-15.7
-6.7
Changes in TFR due to:
Decomposition using method of Bongaarts and Potter (1983)
Family in Russia, Reproductive
Health and Marriage Patterns
Marriage
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Marriage is a legal contract between
two individuals to form a sexual,
productive, and reproductive union
Important characteristics of
marriage:
permanence, joint production,
coresidence, and the social
recognition of a sexual and
childbearing union (Waite, Gallagher)
Measures of marriage
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Crude marriage rate – number of
marriages per 1000 population
Pros: Easy to calculate
Cons: Is affected by population
structure (proportion of birth cohorts
at young adult ages)
Number of marriages and crude
marriage rate in Russia
Crude marriage rates (per 1000
population) in Russia, USA, and Estonia
Russia: Recent trends in marriage
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In 2001-2005 marriage rates increased (in
2005 crude marriage rate – 7.5 per 1000 returned to its levels of early 1990s)
The number of first marriages grew faster
than the number of marriages of other
orders (by 29.5% for men and 30.2% for
women during 1998-2005)
However the proportion of second and
higher order marriages now (24-28% of
all marriages) is 10% higher than 20 years
ago
Marriage and divorce rates in
Russia after 1979
Regional distribution of marriage rates
per 1000 population in Russia, 1999
Age-specific marriage rates
in Russia
Total first marriage rate (TFMR)
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Total first marriage rate — the probability
of first marriage for a person if he/she
passed through ages 15–49 conforming to
the age-specific first marriage rates of a
given year; refers to a synthetic cohort. It
is calculated as the sum of the age-specific
first marriage rates observed in a given
year.
The indicator can exceed 1 in the years of
rapid increase in the number of marriages,
although it is excluded that a person can
contract more than one first marriage.
Indicates popularity of marriage
Total first marriage rate, Russia
Age-specific first-marriage rates
per 1000 in Russia
Mean age at first marriage in
Russia, USA and Estonia
Total divorce rate – divorces per
1000 marriages, Russia
Regional distribution of divorce rates
per 1000 population in Russia, 1999
Degradation of divorce statistics
after 1999
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Legislation of 1999 – after the court
decision former husband and wife were
allowed to take their divorce certificates in
any local branch of ZAGS rather than in the
ZAGS where their marriage was registered
Result: double counting of divorces
Attempted to correct in 2003
Increasing number of divorced with
unknown age
Marriage and divorce rates in
Russia after 1979
Age-specific divorce rates (per
married population) in Kyrgyzstan
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Solid line
1999
Dotted line
1989
Blue- men
Red women
Kyrgyzstan: Marriage did not
become more stable
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In the 1990s the decline in divorces was
slower than decline in marriages
Marriage rate decline by 45% and divorce
rate declined by 34%
So the ratio of total divorce rate to total
marriage rate increased from 0.22 to 0.27.
That is, for 100 marriages there were 27
divorces in 1999 compared to 22 divorces
in 1989 (calculated for synthetic cohort)
Family in Russia before the
bolshevik revolution
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Patriarchal
family, many
children
Marriages are
registered by
church
Marriages in Russia, legislation
Bolsheviks introduced civil marriages
as the only recognized union
The Code of 16 September, 1918:
 Fixed age of women at 16 years and
men at 18 years
 Equality of spouses
 Equal rights of children born in
marriage and outside of marriage
Family in the USSR
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Soviet court
The Code of USSR Republics
adopted in 1926
Facilitated divorces (only one spouse
could request divorce, the other
spouse being informed by mail –
‘divorce by postcard’)
Recognized ‘de facto’ marriages (not
officially registered)
It was the most liberal marriage
legislation in Russian history
Woman in the Soviet Union
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Had equal
rights with men
Including the
right for labor
Soviet poster
encourages
women to fight
outdated rules
and customs of
the past
Women in the Soviet Union
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Had equal
rights with
men in all
regards
Could elect and be elected
Women Who Report Having Suffered Physical Abuse
by a Spouse or Partner (survey in 1993-2001)
Note: Data for
Russia cover
three urban
areas only. All
data represent
lifetime
experiences of
abuse.
Tightening of legislation after 1936
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The Decree of 27 June 1936 – made
divorce costly (first resulted in 65%
fall of the number of divorces)
The Decree of 1941 “On taxes on
unmarried, single and childless
citizens of the USSR”
The Decree of 1944: cancelled the
recognition of de facto unions
(triggered off the wave of marriages)
Liberalization of legislation
after death of Stalin
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1954 – marriages with foreign
citizens allowed
1955 – abortion was once again
permitted
1957 – the tax on the single was
annulled
1966 – the divorce procedure was
simplified (in 1966-1967 the number
of divorces almost doubled)
Proportion of remarriages per 100
marriages (all orders), Russia
Marriage in traditional societies
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Sexual, matrimonial and reproductive
behaviors are tightly bound
Marriage in modern societies
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Sexual, matrimonial and reproductive
behaviors are not strongly related
Russia and other FSU countries are at
the beginning of transition to the
modern type of family
New trends in union formation and
fertility in Russia
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Increasing age at first marriage
Growing proportion of cohabitation at younger
ages
Rapid decline of fertility at very young ages
Postponement of first births in real birth cohorts
Decline of abortions and simultaneous decline of
births before age 25
Increasing contribution of older mothers into
total fertility
Decreasing number of marriages stimulated by
pre-marital conceptions
Current trends in marriage
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Young men do not rush to marry even in the
case of unexpected pregnancy of female
partner
Young women tend to marry men with
resources
As a result, increase in the mean age at
marriage particularly for men (by 2.5 years
for men and 1.9 years for women from 1993
to 2005)
Decrease in the number of births at very
young ages
Increase in the mean difference between
husband and wife ages (from 2 years to 2.8
years)
Increasing proportion of
cohabitation
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Proportion of unregistered unions
increased from 11.4% in 1994 to
32.6% in 2002 for age group 18-19
years
In the age group 20-24 years this
proportion increased from 6.7% in
1994 to 19% in 2002
Similar trends for older age groups
Demographers called it “silent
revolution” in marriage
Rapid decline of fertility at very
young ages
Age-specific fertility at different ages
Increasing age at first marriage
(women)
Reproductive health
Abortions in Russia
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1988 - 4.6 million
1990 - 3.92 million
1995 - 2.57 million
2000 - 1.96 million
2002 - 1.78 million
Source: Russian Ministry of Health
Soviet poster circa 1925
against criminal abortions
Abortion rates in Russia and USA
Abortion rates in Europe
Changing pattern of abortion
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By the late 1980s, the number of
women using modern contraceptive
methods to prevent births exceeded
the number who used abortion to do
so.
Russian contraceptive access has
increased in part through efforts by
the Russian government and the
United States Agency for
International Development (USAID)
Abortion and modern contraceptives
use (IUD, pills) in Russia
Trends in Abortion Rates in Belarus
Number of abortions per 1000 women aged 15-49
Trends in Abortion Rates in Belarus
Number of abortions per 100 births
Reproductive Health Trends in
Eastern Europe and Eurasia
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Report of Population Reference
Bureau (2003)
by Lori Ashford
Based on population surveys
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Two U.S.-based agencies, the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC) and ORC Macro,
helped national institutions conduct surveys in
Eastern Europe and Eurasia from 1993 to 2001.
The two types of surveys, Reproductive Health
Surveys (RHS) and Demographic and Health
Surveys (DHS), interviewed women from a
representative sample of households in each
country to gather extensive information on
fertility, family planning, maternal and infant
health, and other reproductive health topics.
Major support came from the U.S. Agency for
International Development, with funding in some
countries from the United Nations Population
Fund and UNICEF.
Fertility decline in selected FSU
countries
Abortions
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In most countries, abortions are most common
among women ages 20 to 34.
Most women who reported having an abortion
said that they did not want and could not afford
another child. The vast majority of abortions
follow unintended pregnancies, which mainly
occur among women who do not use
contraception or who use traditional methods
that have relatively high failure rates.
Between 71 percent and 90 percent of unintended
pregnancies end in abortion, indicating that
women are strongly motivated to avoid an
unplanned birth.
Trends in abortion rates in
selected countries
In many Central
Asian countries
decline in
abortion rates
was caused by
emigration of
Russians who
have higher
abortion rates
compared to local
ethnic groups
Reproductive health indicators in 1996-2001, FSU
Lifetime
number of
abortions per
woman
% Mothers
receiving
prenatal care
(1st trimester)
Births Outside
Medical
Russia
2.3
83
1.8
Ukraine
1.6
66
0.9
Armenia
2.6
54
8.5
Azerbaijan
3.2
45
26.3
Georgia
3.7
63
7.8
Kazakhstan
1.4
60
1.6
Kyrgyzstan
1.5
72
3.8
Turkmenistan
0.8
72
4.2
Uzbekistan
0.6
73
5.9
Facilities (%)
Potential Need for Modern
Contraceptive Methods*
*Includes married,
fecund women who
say they would prefer
to avoid a pregnancy
but who either are
not using any
contraception or are
using a traditional
method such as
withdrawal or
periodic abstinence.
Traditional contraception methods
and abortions