Transcript In the Beginning we have…

Enrollment Projections
CBO Mentor Program
January 2009
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Enrollment Projections
Straight line
Projection
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What is the purpose of the projection?
Short term 1 to 2 Years
(For Budgetary and staffing purposes, tends to be conservative)
Medium Range 3 to 5 Years
(For Boundary stability)
Long Range 5 to 10 Years
(for facility or school construction needs)
The purpose of the projection will help define the methodology
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Factors that Influence Enrollment
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Boundary changes and new or closing schools
Changes or additions to programs
Change to grade configurations
Employment shifts
Magnet/Charter/Private Schools
Birth rates
Residential construction/demolition
Move in/out of families in existing homes
Drop-outs
Changes in school capacities
Transfer students
NCLB PI schools
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Good Economy
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But when things go wrong…
Land!
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A Simple Solution
Cohort - Survival
 Short-term projection
method Required by
state for eligibility
SAB50-01
 Based purely on a
weighted mathematical
formula assuming
enrollment changes in
the past will continue
into the future
 May be A BIG
ASSUMPTION!
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Enrollment Projections – Cohort Survival
The enrollment projection method used by most
educational agencies is the cohort survival technique.
This technique uses a grade regression ratio (GRR),
which is the quotient obtained by dividing the current
enrollment of one grade level into the next higher
grade level one year later.
The GPR represents the proportion of students
expected to progress from one grade level to the
next, and accounts for retention, dropouts, and
migration, grade by grade.
Cohort Survival predicts what will happen in the
future based on what happened in the past.
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A Closer look at Cohort - Survival
2007
100
2008
105
Grade 1
Enrollment
Grade 2
Enrollment
2008
80
Grade 1
Enrollment
2009
??
Grade 2
Enrollment
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Cohort – Survival Pro and Con
Pro
 Simple formula/simple explanation
 Valid for short term projections
 Valid for areas with stable/consistent change
 School projections using cohorts take into consideration intradistrict
student transfers: valid for short-term staffing needs
Con
 Lumps all factors influencing projections into a mathematical formula.
 4 years of data/3 years of change: valid for only short-term projections
 K changes based upon historical K
 Poor method for areas of residential growth/changes (suburban)
 School-based projections lose validity when boundary changes affect
historical enrollment data stream
 Projections lose validity when education policy changes (i.e.. magnet
schools, program changes at site, etc.) affect historical enrollment data
stream at individual school sites
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When you need something more…
…Then it’s time to get into the dirty details
of projections.
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What goes into a projection?
Short & Medium Term
Current Students
Future Students
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Factors that effect enrollment
 Drop outs
 In and out Migration
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Private and Charter Schools
Immigration
Changing Birth rates
Residential construction of demolition
Student Yield from new construction
Transfer students (Open enrollment, Inter, Intra)
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A More Detailed Methodology
Study Area Concept
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Small areas to analyze demographic changes over
time independent of attendance boundary shifts
Projections at this level can be used to shift
boundaries for analyzing opening/closing of school
sites
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Map of Study Areas
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A Projection Methodology
Graduate 12th grade; move up other grades
Increase/decrease future K classes based upon
changes in births within the last 5 years
Add enrollment generated by new construction
Modify enrollment as grades progress each year
based upon a cohort factor calculated from historical
enrollment in areas with no new construction
(addresses in/out migration, drop-outs and private
school movement)
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Geocoding Students
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Housing tracts
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Housing Tract Data
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Student Yield
Each dot represents a
family, there are 83
students represented by
these dots.
There are 96 parcels in
this small area.
83/96 = .86
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Migration Analysis
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Study Area Projection
No migration factors and no new housing
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Study Area Projection
Small negative Migration factor and no new housing
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Study Area Projection
Small negative Migration factor and new housing
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District Projection
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Birthrates +5 years
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Birthrates +5 years
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Enrollment Projections – Kindergarten
Del Norte “County” Unified School District
Year Live Births Year +5 CBEDS Percentage
1992
358
1997
351 98.04%
1993
351
1998
346 98.58%
1994
343
1999
320 93.29%
1995
310
2000
312 100.65%
1996
333
2001
296 88.89%
1997
324
2002
342 105.56%
1998
316
2003
357 112.97%
1999
298
2004
336 112.75%
2000
316
2005
359 113.61%
2001
275
2006
282 102.70%
2002
288
2007
307 106.76%
Source: DataQuest and Center for Health Statistics
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Enrollment Projections – Kindergarten
Other School Districts in
County or Area
Percentage of CBEDS to
County Live Births
 ie. 20% if 5 districts in
County and equal in
size
Information by Zip Code
Same analysis as with
County Data except by Zip
Source: Center for Health Statistics
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DataQuest information
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Class Exercise
Demonstration of Excel Spreadsheet
Calculate enrollment projections based
on information provided
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Procedures for Boundary Changes
• Student Housing Committee
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•
Steering Committee
Full Committee
• Public Presentations
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Initial presentation
Detailed presentation
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Procedures for School Closures
• Student Housing Committee
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•
Steering Committee
Full Committee
• Public Presentations
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•
Initial presentation
Detailed presentation
• All heck breaking loose……….
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Example of Public Presentation
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The Clovis West Area
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Millerton New Town
Development
520 elementary students
projected for the Clovis West Area
in the next 6 yrs
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Copper River Development
324 elementary students
projected for the Clovis
West Area in the next 6
yrs.
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CUSD Master Facility
Plan from 2006-2012
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Clovis North HS & Granite Ridge IS open in fall of 2007
Rank Elementary open in fall of 2007
Dakota/Armstrong School opens in fall of 2009
Future Sites under consideration after 2012
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Millerton New Town
NW Urban Village (2 sites in the Clovis General Plan)
Shields/Locan Site
4th Ed Center Site
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The Solution:
• 850 new students are projected from
developments in the Clovis West Area
over the next 6 years
• There is space available in the existing
elementary schools in the CW Area to
handle this growth:
– CW Elementary Enrollment capacity: 4950
– Current enrollment in CW Elem. Schools: 3955
– Spaces available for new students: 995
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Student Housing Decision
Timeline
8/06
10/06
11/06 & 08
2/07
3/07
4/07
5/07
6/07
8/08
SH Planning Steering Committee begins
meeting
District Elementary Student Housing
Committee Meetings begin & continue
until recommendation
Community Forums to intro the process
Student Housing Recommendation is posted
on the District website
2nd Community Forums are held
Recommendation is made to Supt. Cabinet
Supt. Cabinet makes recommendation to the
Gov. Board
Board approves boundary changes
New elementary boundaries go into effect for
the Clovis and Clovis West Areas
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The Student Housing
Committee Process
• Who serves on the Student Housing
Steering Committee?
• Who serves on the District Student
Housing Committee?
• Who serves on the Superintendent’s
Cabinet?
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Guiding Principles
November 1, 2006
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The following “Guiding Principles” will serve as a “filter” for boundary
change options to address future growth in the CW Area:
Attempt to:
Utilize all existing school facilities to their enrollment capacity
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Accommodate future enrollment growth within existing elementary school
facilities before considering building new schools
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Maintain existing secondary boundaries
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Create boundaries that will last at least 6 years
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Optimize academic and co-curricular opportunities for students at all
existing elementary schools
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Community Input Tonight
• Your elementary Principal will facilitate
discussion of the following topics:
– What are your question and/or concerns about
the Boundary Change Process?
– What would you like the 2006 Student Housing
Committee to consider during their study?
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Community Connection to
the Student Housing
Process
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
District Web Site
Elementary School News Letters
CUSD Today
Clovis Independent & Fresno Bee
School Site SART
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Thank You!
Our Next Community Forum will be
in March 2007
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Resources
DecisionInsite – Process paper
Michael Dodge’s Spreadsheet
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