Transcript Geen diatitel

Goldletter
INTERNATIONAL
the in te rna tiona l ind ependen t in fo rma tion and ad vi ce bu lle tin fo r gold and rela ted inv es tmen t s
Investment opportunities
in the worldwide
gold and uranium equity markets
Marino G. Pieterse, publisher and editor
March 5 – 6, 2013
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Gold does not run its own course as a safe haven
Source: Goldletter International
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US Dollar Index
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Course of gold price particularly determined by
change from hedging to dehedging since 2000:
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World official gold holdings and total monetary reserves
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Why Uranium ?
Uranium is the most cost effective and environmental friendly
large scale alternative for electricity generating
as the only viable alternative to fossil fuels
Climate change :
Kyoto protocol (1997) has paved the way for nuclear renaissance
Growing public concern over global warming will lead to increasing dependence on nuclearfuelled power plants as power utilities and governments strive to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions of C02 from fossil fuel power stations.
Nuclear power is one of the cleanest methods of producing electricity because it doesn’t
produce greenhouse gas.
• 1 gram of uranium produces the same amount of electricity as 3 million tonnes of coal
• Burning 3 tonnes of coal leads to 7 tonnes of CO2 emission
An average cost of US$ 1.76 kWh for nuclear power compares to: US$ 2.47 kWh for coal fired
and US$ 6.28 kWh for gas fired
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Nuclear Power provides 16% of the world’s total electricity
and 28% of European Union’s needs, compared to:
fossil fuels 56%, water power 10%, wind 3%, biomass 3%
• France receives 78% of its electricity from nuclear energy,
Belgium almost 56%, Sweden close to 50%, South Korea 40%,
Switzerland 40%, Japan 29%, Germany 28% and the United States 20%
• China receives 1.9% of its electricity from nuclear, India 2.2%,
Brasil 3% and Russia 8%.
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Shortage in future supply is expected to keep
uranium oxyde price (U3O8) rising
Production :
Primary supply:
International Nuclear’s most recent “Scheduled Uranium production Forecast” shows
world-wide uranium production increasing from current levels of approximately 107
million pounds U3O8 to as much as 115 million pounds per year by 2010-2011, before
declining as some mines reach reserve depletion.
Secundary supply :
Growing demand temporarily met by secondary supply, particularly from downblending of Russian weapons’ highly enriched uranium into commercial grade fueling
being consumed in the United States (20 million pounds from 2009 to 2013).
Russia will not renew the HEU contract after 2013.
New agreement between Russia’s Fenex with US utilities firm Fuelco, worth a reported
$ 1 billion. The deal will allow Fenex to supply uranium to US companies from 2014 to
2020.
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Looming Uranium shortage
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All uranium consumed today goes into electricity generating
Uranium demand utility-like in nature and only modestly impacted by economic weakness
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Nuclear power is competitive economically
- High capital costs of $ 4 billion
(2-3 times as high as coal-fired and 5-6 times as high as gas-fired)
are offset by low ongoing fuel, operating and maintenance costs
An average cost of US$ 1.76/kWh for nuclear power compares to:
US$ 2.47/kWh for coal fired and US$ 6.28/kWh for gas fired
- If generated by other fuel sources, it would require:
• Oil
: 13.7 million barrels – 1 barrel yields 576 kWh
• Coal
: 3.4 million tonnes – 1 tonne yields 2,297 kWh
• Natural gas : 68.5 bilion cubic feet – 100 cubic feet yields 12 kWh
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Amount of electricity generated by a 100-Mwe reactor at 90% capacity factor in one year:
7.9 billion kWh-enough to supply electricity for 740,000 households
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Unlike the alternatives, nuclear plans are fairly insensitive to feedstock pricing, as the
costs of uranium accounts for less than 10% of the cost of producing electricity
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WORLD NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY
Country
Operating
reactors
% total electricity
MWe net
generation
(as at December 31, 2012)
Under
construction
Planned *
Proposed *
MWe net
MWe net
Uranium required
MWe net
2012 in tonnes *
North America:
USA
104
102,215
19
1
1,218
13
15,560
19
21,600
19,724
19
13,531
15
-
-
2
1,500
3
3,800
1,694
Japan
50
44,396
18
3
3,036
10
13,772
5
4,000
4,636
South Korea
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20,787
35
4
5,205
5
7,000
-
-
3,957
Taiwan
6
4,927
19
2
2,700
-
-
1
1,350
810
China
16
12,918
1.8
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29,990
51
59,800
120
123,000
6,550
India
20
4,385
3.7
7
5,300
18
15,100
40
45,000
937
3
725
3.8
2
680
-
2
2,000
117
58
63,130
78
1
1,720
1
1,720
1
1,100
9,254
9
12,003
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-
-
-
-
-
-
1,934
UK
16
10,038
18
-
-
4
6,680
9
12,000
2,096
Sweden
10
9,399
40
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,394
Spain
7
7,002
20
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,355
Switzerland
5
3,252
41
-
-
-
-
3
4,000
527
Finland
4
2,741
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1
1,700
-
-
2
3,000
471
Belgium
7
5,943
54
-
-
-
-
-
-
995
Russia
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24,164
18
10
9,160
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24,180
24
20,000
5,488
Ukraine
15
13,168
47
-
-
2
1,900
11
12,000
2,348
Slovakia
4
1,816
54
2
880
-
-
1
1,200
307
Brazil
2
1,901
3.2
1
1,405
-
-
4
4,000
321
Argentina
2
935
5
1
745
1
33
1
1400
124
Mexico
2
1,600
3.6
-
-
-
-
2
2,000
279
South Africa
2
1,800
5.2
-
-
-
-
6
9,600
304
Canada
Asia:
Pakistan
-
Western Europe:
France
Germany
Eastern Europe:
Latin America:
Others
World
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11,332
1
1,400
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37,170
66
88,605
2,368
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_______
__
______
___
_______
____
______
_____
435
374,108
65
65,139
167
184,415
317
359,655
67,990
67,990 tU = 80,181 tU3O8 (uranium oxide)
* Future reactors envisaged in specific plans and proposals and expected to be operating by 2030
** The 2011 WNA Market Report reference case has 156 reactors closing by 2030 and 298 new ones coming on line
source : WNA
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No material impact from Fukushima disaster
on future nuclear power demand
COUNTRIES with strongest world nuclear power growth compared to USA
Country
Nuclear electricty
in %
Operable
Under Planned Proposed
generating 2011
total electricity
(billionkWh)
consumption
China
82.6
1.8
16
29
51
120
6,550
India
28.9
3.7
20
7
18
39
937
162.0
17.6
33
10
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20
5,488
790.4
19.2
reactors construction
Uranium
required 2012
(in tonnes U)
(as at Year-end 2012)
Russia
USA
104
1
13
13
19,724
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____
____
____
____
______
Subtotal
1,063.9
173
47
106
192
32,699
World total
2,518.0
435
65
167
317
67,990
40
70
63
60
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Top-4 in % world total :
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13.5
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China
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China plans to quadruple its nuclear output by 2020 and to triple or quadruple
output again by 2030
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China currently produces 10GWe through nuclear power (13 reactors), which
supplies about 2.4% of the country’s electricity
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China expects to produce 58-60 GWe of capacity by 2020 (26 reactors under
construction), possibly 200 GWe by 2030 (172 reactors planned or proposed)
and 400 GWe by 2050
The US uses almost 20,000 tonnes (44 million pounds) U3O8 per year to produce
101 GWe from its 104 reactors.
China currently uses 6.5 million tonnes of U3O8 per year and will need more than
27,000 tonnes (60 million pounds ) U3O8 per year by 2030
(based on current uranium requirements)
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China’s power supply
- total 3,800 billion kWh
Coal
Domestic Hydro-Power
Oil
Nuclear energy
Natural gas
Others (solar, windpower)
in %
78
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2
1,8
1
2.2
100.0%
70% transported by rail :
- 6% of world rail tracks
- 24% of global rail traffic
Bottle necks in transport network will be
followed by regional power shortages
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China has committed US$ 248 billion to
rail expansion over the next 15 years
Environmental pollution problems
(economic loss due to polultion put by the World Bank almost 6% of GDP)
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Call for diversification away from coal
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Plans to reduce coal’s contribution to power supply to around 60% by 2020
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Electricity consumption 2011: + 11.7% to 4,693 billion kWh
(expected annual increase <10%)
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Nuclear energy must replace the share of natural gas
in Russia’s energy balance
 Federal Agency for Nuclear Power:
There is no alternative to the development of nuclear power in Russia,
which must replace power generated using natural gas
 Russia has the world's largest reserves of natural gas and has become a
crucial exporter, particularly for Europe
 Russia's reserves of coal and natural gas could be depleted in 50 years
 Russia, currently has 10 operational nuclear plants with 33 reactors
generating 162 billion kWh, but is would need another 300 billion kWh for
new plants to cover a projected energy deficit in the next 30 years.
 Russia is planning to build 54 nuclear power units for its own needs by
2030 and 40-50 units abroad in the next 30 years
 With around 8% of the world's uranium output, Russia is planning to mine
60-70% of its uranium needs by 2015, with the remainder to come from
joint ventures in former Soviet Republics, particularly Kazakhstan, which
holds 18% of world's uranium reserves
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Goldletter
INTERNATIONAL
the in te rna tiona l ind ependen t in fo rma tion and ad vi ce bu lle tin fo r gold and rela ted inv es tmen t s
Postal address:
P.O.Box 76988
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the Netherlands
Telephone
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Mobile
0031 651 194 562
www.goldletterint.com
[email protected]
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