Transcript Indian Telecom Sector - India Knowledge Centre

Indian
Telecommunication
Sector
August 2007
www.ibef.org
Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
2
www.ibef.org
Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
3
www.ibef.org
Indian Telecom Industry – A Lucrative Option
Indian Telecom Industry
In recent years, the Indian telecom industry has witnessed phenomenal growth. A conducive business environment, favourable
demographic outlook and the political stability enjoyed by the country have contributed to the growth of the industry. India
achieved the distinction of having the world's lowest call rates (2–3 US cents), the fastest sale of million mobile phones (1 week),
the world's cheapest mobile handset (USD 19) and the world's most affordable colour phone (USD 31).
Indian Telecom Industry – Facts


One of the fastest growing cellular markets in
the world in terms of number of subscriber
additions – 19.35 million in 3 months (April to
June 2007)
Expected to reach total subscriber base of
about 500 million by 2010 (i.e., more than
one phone for every household)

Total telecom subscribers – 225.21 million
(June 2007)

Tele density – 19.86 percent (June 2007)

Number of new mobile subscribers added
every month – 7.34 million (June 2007)

ARPU for GSM – USD 6.6 per month

Annual growth rate of the telecom
subscribers – 47 percent (2006–07)

Telecom equipment market – USD 17,100
million (2006–07)

More GSM subscribers than fixed-line
subscribers

Handset market – USD 4,750 million (2006–
07)
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Telephony services (mobile and basic) and Internet services
dominate the Indian telecom services
The Indian telecom market generated revenues of approximately USD 20 billion in 2006–07. It registered a CAGR of
approximately 22 percent from 2002–03 to 2006–07. The CAGR from 2006–07 to 2009–10 is expected to stabilise at 21
percent. Apart from mobile telephony services, other value-added services are also gaining importance.
Telecom Services – India
Revenues (USD billion)
Revenues of Indian Telecom Industry: 2002–07 (USD billion)
50
43
Registered an
annual growth of 33
percent in 2006–07
40
30
20
20
9
10
11
15
10
0
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
…..
….
2009-10
The Indian telecom services can be divided predominantly into basic, mobile and Internet services. It also comprises smaller segments,
such as radio paging services, Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSATs), Public Mobile Radio Trunked Services (PMRTS) and Global
Mobile Personal Communications by Satellite (GMPCS).
The growth witnessed in the mobile services and Internet services segments was higher as compared to other services, such as basic
services and radio paging services.
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Private players account for highest subscriber base growth in the
basic telephony services segment
Market Share* of Basic Services Segments in
India (2006–07)
WLL (F)
17%
Basic Services

Basic services include fixed wireline and
wireless in local loop (WLL-fixed). In 2006–
07, basic services subscribers exceeded 50
million.

Fixed wireline services hold a major market
share of 83 percent in basic services.

BSNL and MTNL are market leaders in this
segment.

Although the government-owned BSNL
dominates the segment in terms of
subscriber base and market share, private
players have registered a notable growth.
Fixed
83%
Market Share* of Basic Service Operators in
India (2005–06)
100%
80%
80%
74%
60%
40%
9%
20%
8%
18%
11%
0%
BSNL
* In terms of Subscriber Base
MTNL
As of 31 March 2005
Other Private Players
As of 31 March 2006
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Mobile telecom services provide an unprecedented growth
opportunity for companies
Mobile services have led to a spectacular growth in the Indian telecom industry. Currently, 12 players are active in this segment. The total
number of wireless subscribers escalated to 185.13 million at the end of June 2007, with a monthly addition of more than 6 million wireless
subscribers. Despite the decreasing ARPU*, the minutes of usage is on a rise, which provides impetus to the mobile services growth in India.
Minutes of Usage per Month – Mobile Services
USA
838
461
India
China
ARPU (USD per month)
Russia
10
Despite a low teledensity of approximately 19 percent, India has
the second highest minutes of usage per month. This offers huge
growth opportunity to telecom companies.
303
88
ARPU* in India – Mobile Services
8
The declining ARPU implies that India Inc. is tapping a large
market at the bottom of the pyramid by reducing tariffs; thereby,
enhancing affordability.
6
4
2
0
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
GSM
CDMA
Q4 2006
Q1 2007
* Average Revenues per User
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Number of mobile subscriber will propel the total subscriber base
to 500 million by 2010


The telecom subscriber base has witnessed an
explosive growth; the additions in the current year
registered a growth of approximately 47 percent over
the previous year.
The subscriber base registered a CAGR of 40.4
percent for 2002–03 to 2006–07.
Subscribers (in million)
250
24
18.3
200
19.9 20
16
12.8
150
9.1
225.21
7.0
100
206
5.1
8
140.3
50
53
76
2002–03
2003–04
12
98.4
4
0
Teledensity (in percent)
Telecom Subscriber Base and Teledensity in India
0
2004–05
2005–06
Telecom Subscriber Base
2006–07
Teledensity
2007–08
(As of June
2007)
Market Share* of Wireless** Operators
(As of June 2007)
Hutch
17%
Others
8%
Idea
9%
Airtel
23%
The state-owned BSNL was the second largest service provider after Bharti
Airtel (23 percent) in the Indian wireless telecom market with a market share of
approximately 19 percent for the year ending March 2007.
BSNL
17%
Reliance
Communications
17%
TTSL
9%
* In terms of Subscriber Base
** Includes GSM, CDMA and WLL-F services
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GSM surpasses CDMA in number of additions to subscriber base
Market Share* of Wireless Operators
(as of quarter ending March 2007)
GSM surpasses CDMA segment by a large
margin in terms of subscriber numbers.
CDMA, 27%
GSM, 73%
Bharti Airtel dominates the GSM segment with a
market share of approximately 31 percent for the
year ending March 2007, followed by BSNL with
a share of approximately 23 percent subscribers.
Reliance Communications and TTSL
dominates the Indian CDMA mobile services
segment.
* In terms of Subscriber Base
Market Share GSM* Service Providers (as of
quarter ending March 2007)
Spice, 2.3%
Market Share* CDMA Service Providers (as of
quarter ending March 2007)
HFCL, 0.3%
Reliance, 2.8%
BPL, 0.9%
MTNL, 2.3%
TTSL, 35.9%
Aircel, 4.6%
Idea, 11.6%
Reliance,
55.2%
Bharti, 30.8%
Hutch, 22.0%
MTNL, 0.5%
BSNL, 22.8%
BSNL, 8.0%
Syam Telilink,
0.2%
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Various other services emerged by leveraging the telecom
services industry
Radio Paging
In 1995, radio paging services emerged as a
promising segment in India. However, this
segment could not compete with cellular
services in general and SMS technology in
particular, and is currently shrinking. At
present, only four radio paging service
providers are present in the Indian market.
GMPCS*
Public Mobile Radio Trunked Services
PMRTS have not grown to their expected potential
in India. The high licence fee leaves a very thin
margin for services providers; thereby, inhibiting
its growth. About 31,000 subscribers are currently
availing this service in India from 12 different
operators.
Other Telecom
Services
GMPCS services were launched in India
in 1999. These services allow a
subscriber to communicate from any
point on earth through a handheld
terminal. Moreover, the telephone
number remains unchanged,
irrespective of the subscriber’s location.
Very Small Aperture Terminals
(VSAT)
The market for VSAT services increased by
5.73 percent during the quarter ending in
December 2006, and the segment had a total
subscriber base of 55,070. HCL Comnet is the
largest of the eight players functioning in the
market.
* Global Mobile Personal
Communication by Satellite
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Broadband services to drive Internet penetration in India
Internet Subscribers: 1998–2007
Market Share of Top Five Internet Service
Providers (as of quarter ending March 2007)
BSNL, 45.2%
Bharti Airtel,
6.8%
9.27
6.94
8
5.55
6
4.55
3.04
4
3.42
3.64
0.95
2
0.14
0.28
2006–07
2005–06
2004–05
2003–04
2003–03
2001–02
2000–01
1999–00
1998–99
0
1997–98
The emergence of private players and new technologies have provided a strong
impetus to the growth of Internet and broadband services. The quality and
penetration of these services have undergone changes, with significant
improvement in the telecom infrastructure. The Internet subscriber base
registered a CAGR of 60 percent for the period 1997–98 to 2006–07.
Internet Subscribers (In million)
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BSNL and MTNL caters to more than two-thirds of Internet subscribers in India.
India had 2.52 million broadband connections at the end of June 2007.
Private players are catching up fast due to increased penetration of Internet and
broadband services in India.
Reliance,
6.1%
Sify, 8.9%
Others, 14.0%
MTNL, 19.0%
The telecom market will experience high penetration of Internet services with the
support from government policies and introduction of novel technologies in
India.
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Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
Telecom Handset Market
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
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Indian telecom handset market booming along with mobile
services industry

The Indian handset market grew at a phenomenal rate in 2006
with the sale of approximately 30–35 million handsets. It is
estimated that by 2011, sales of mobile handsets will reach
150 million units.
Competitive pricing has triggered the growth of coloured
handsets, which accounted for 65 percent of the market in
2006; whereas, the share of monochrome handsets has
declined to 35 percent.

Mobile phones are available at prices as low as USD 28–35.

Camera phones currently occupy 15 percent of the sales
Mobile Handsets Market in India: 2004–07
4,750
5,000
4,000
USD Million

3,231
3,000
2,000
1,610
1,966
1,000
0
2003–04
2004–05
2005–06
2006–07
volume.
Market Share of GSM and CDMA Handset
Manufacturers: 2006–07
Haier
1%
Huaw ei
1%
The CDMA category is growing faster than the GSM
category. It captured 25 percent of the market volume in
2005–06 as against a 20.5 percent share in the
previous year.
Others
7%
Overall, Nokia has a market share of 53 percent; it
dominates the GSM mobile handsets with a market
share of approximately 73 percent.
ZTE
4%
Samsung
6%
Sony Ericsson
6%
Nokia
53%
LG
11%
LG dominates in the CDMA handsets market with a
market share of 60 percent.
Motorola
11%
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Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
14
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India: An Ideal Destination for Investments in Telecom Sector
World’s largest democracy
Independent judiciary
Skilled and competitive labour force
Fifth largest telecom network in the world; second largest among the emerging economies after
China
 On an average, about 6–7 million new users added per month, making India the world’s fastest
growing wireless services market




 Liberal Foreign Investment Regime–FDI limit increased from 49 percent to 74 percent; the rural
telecom equipment market is also open to large investments
 Among the countries offering the highest rates of return on investment
 The large untapped potential in India’s rural markets–1.9 percent teledensity in rural markets as
compared to the national level of 18 percent
 Expected to become the second largest telecom market by 2010
 The government promoting telecom manufacturing by providing tax sops and establishing telecom
specific Special Economic Zones
 Fully repatriable dividend income and capital invested in telecom equipment manufacturing
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Increasing mobile subscriber numbers and low level of teledensity
offers large opportunities to Indian companies
Low teledensity (depicting
large untapped potential)
Large number of additions
in telecom subscribers
Telecom
Advantage
The telecom subscriber base has witnessed an explosive growth; the additions in year 2006-07 registered a growth of
approximately 47 percent over the previous year.

The subscriber base witnessed a CAGR of 40.4 percent during 2002–03 to 2006–07.

The impressive growth in the subscriber base has resulted in a significant increase in teledensity. In 2006–07, India had a
teledensity of 18.3 percent, as compared to year 2005-06 figure of 12.80 percent, signifying a growth of 43 percent.
Subscribers (in million)
250
24
18.3
200
19.9 20
16
12.8
150
9.1
225.21
7.0
100
206
5.1
50
140.3
53
76
2002–03
2003–04
98.4
12
8
4
0
0
2004–05
2005–06
Telecom Subscriber Base
2006–07 2007–08 (as
of June
2007)
Teledensity
Teledensity (in percent)

Even though the Indian telecom industry has exceeded a
subscriber base of 200 million, its teledensity is only 18
percent. Thus, the Indian market provides telecom service
providers with a large untapped potential due to the
country’s increasing population and its low teledensity. The
government has plans to raise teledensity to 40–45 percent
by 2010; thereby, offering greater growth opportunities for
service providers.
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Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
17
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Regulatory Framework provides level playing field for all operators
The Department of telecommunications (Government of India) is the main
governing body for the industry.
Telephone Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) assists the Government of
India (GoI) to take timely decisions and introduce new technologies in the
country.
Indian Telecom Industry Framework
Indian Government Bodies
They formulate various policies and pass laws to
regulate the telecom industry in India.
Wireless Planning and
Coordination (WPC)
Handles spectrum allocation and
management
Department of
Telecommunications
DoT – Licensee and frequency
management for telecom
Telecom Commission
Exclusive policy making body of
DoT
Group on Telecom and
IT (GoT-IT)
Handles ad hoc issues of the
telecom industry
Independent Bodies
They undertake various research activities and monitor
the quality of service provided in the Indian telecom
industry. They also provide various recommendations to
improve the status of telecom operations in India.
Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India (TRAI)
Telecom Disputes
Settlement and Appellate
Tribunal (TDSAT)
Independent regulatory body
Telecom disputes settlement body
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Various important regulations and laws have been passed in the
Indian telecom industry post-liberalisation era
Department of Telecommunication (DoT) is the main body formulating laws
and various regulations for the Indian telecom industry.
Private players
were allowed in
Value Added
Services
Independent
regulator, TRAI,
was established
1999
INDIA
1997
National
Telecom Policy
(NTP) was
formulated
ILD services was
opened to
competition
Go-ahead to
the CDMA
technology
1994
1992
BSNL was
established
by DoT
2002
2000
NTP-99 led to
migration from highcost fixed license
fee to low-cost
revenue sharing
regime
ILD – International Long Distance
Calling Party Pays
(CPP) was
implemented
2003
Internet
telephony
initiated
Reduction of
licence fees
Unified Access
Licensing
(UASL) regime
was introduced
Reference
Interconnect
order was
issued
Number portability
Intra-circle merger
was proposed
guidelines were
established
Attempted to (pending)
boost Rural
telephony
2004
2007
2005
2006
Broadband
policy 2004
was
formulated—
targeting 20
million
subscribers by
2010
Decision on 3G
services (awaited)
FDI limit was
increased from
49 to 74 percent
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Important regulations and their impact on the Indian telecom
industry
Unified Access Service License Regime (UASL)
16
150
Lowering of ADC
12
Telecom Tariff
Order
8
NTP 99
120
UASL,
CPP
90
60
WLL
4
30
0
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Cellular Tariff
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total Cellular Subscribers
2007
Number of Subscribers
(millions)
Cellular Tariff (INR per minute)
Unified licensing marked the end of the license regime in the Indian telecom industry. It helped in aligning convergent
technologies and services. The establishment of the Unified Access Licensing Regime (2003) eliminated the need for different
licenses for different services. Players are now allowed to offer both mobile and fixed-line services under a single license after
paying an additional entry fee. This does not take into account national and international long-distance services and Internet
access services.
Access Deficit Charges (ADC)
ADC makes it mandatory for a service provider at the caller’s
end to share a percent of the revenue earned with the service
provider at the receiver’s end in long-distance telephony. This
subsidises the infrastructure costs of the service provider
enabling access at receiver’s end, especially because rental
for fixed-line services is low. Revision in the ADC regime is
expected to be followed by further tariff reduction in telecom
services.
Universal Service Obligation (USO)
The USO policy was laid along with NTP ’99 to widen the reach of telephony services in rural India. All telecom operators are
bound to contribute 5 percent of their revenues to this fund. This system was put in place to bridge the wide gap between urban
and rural teledensity, bringing it down from the current 31 percent. Initially, only basic service providers were under the purview of
USO. Later, its scope was expanded to include mobile services also. Although it increases the cost burden for the telecom
companies, USO helps in building the telecommunication infrastructure in the rural areas.
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Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
21
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FDI and other M&A activities increasing in number
Major trends in the telecom sector is increasing M&A activity, de-regulation of telecom policies and growing
interest of international investors.
Vodafone purchased stake in Hutch
from Hong Kong's Hutchison
Telecom International for USD
11.08 billion.
Reliance Communications Limited has sold a five percent
equity share capital of its subsidiary Reliance Telecom
Infrastructure Limited to international investors across the
US, Europe and Asia. The deal was worth USD 337.5
million.
Telekom Malaysia acquired a 49
percent stake in Spice
Communications for USD 179
million.
Maxis Communications acquired a
74 percent stake in Aircel for USD
1.08 billion.
Ericsson to design, plan, deploy and
manage Bharti Airtel network and
facilitate their expansion in the rural
areas, under a USD 2 billion
contract.
The Indian telecom industry has a 74 percent FDI limit in the
telecom services segment.
The GoI has permitted 100 percent FDI in manufacturing of
telecom equipment in India.
FDI in Telecom Sector
680
700
FDI (USD million)
Recent Deals in Telecom Sector
521
500
300
116
129
2003–04
2004–05
100
2005–06
2006–07
The Indian telecom industry has always attracted foreign
investors. In fact, the cumulative FDI inflow, during the August
1991 to March 2007 period, in the telecommunication sector
amounted to USD 3,892 million. It is the third largest sector to
attract FDI in India in the post-liberalisation era.
FDI calculation takes into account radio paging, cellular mobile
and basic telephone services in the telecommunication sector.
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Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and Its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
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Major Players in different segments of Indian telecom industry
Basic Services Operators
MOBILE SERVICES
GSM Services Operators
BSNL
Airtel
MTNL
Vodafone
Reliance
Idea
TTSL
Reliance
Internet Services Operators
BSNL
BSNL
CDMA Services Operators
MTNL
Reliance
Reliance
TTSL
TTSL
BSNL
Airtel
MTNL – Mahanagar Telecom Nigam Ltd.
BSNL – Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd.
TTSL – Tata Teleservices Ltd.
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Presentation Plan
1
Telecom Industry Overview
2
Telecom – Investment Attracting Sector
3
Regulatory Framework and its Impact
4
Emerging Trends in Telecom Market
5
Major Players in Telecom Sector
6
Growth Avenues
25
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India presents a host of opportunities for telecom companies
Rural
Telephony
Value-Added
Services
Infrastructure
Sharing
Managed
Services
Growth
Avenues
WiMax
3G
Virtual Private
Network
Enterprise
Telecom
Services
Virtual Private Network is a private data network
that provides connectivity within closed user groups via
public telecommunication infrastructure. Competition is
likely to heat up in the VPN segment as DoT has
relaxed the norms for private players.
To reduce their network deployment costs, many service providers are considering
infrastructure sharing offers the following advantages:






Improved service quality
Increased affordability for customers
Faster roll out of services in rural and remote areas
Significant reduction in initial set up costs
Increased environmental aesthetics
Lower operating costs for service providers
Enterprise Telecom Services includes key
services, such as voice over Internet protocol (VoIP),
dedicated telecom communication systems, IT
infrastructure enabled unified communication services,
etc. Telecom service providers are increasingly targeting
enterprises by providing dedicated services and is
expected to witness major developments in near future.
Managed services is another segment that is attracting telecom companies.
On account of the rapidly growing subscriber base, service providers find it difficult
to manage their infrastructure and network management operations. In such
cases, they completely or partially outsource their infrastructure or network
management operations.
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Emerging technologies – 3G and WiMax to assist in penetration of
telecom services in India
The Indian government plans to auction the spectrum for 3G services by inviting bids from
domestic as well as foreign players, and creating a competitive environment that offers better
services to consumers. Therefore, the 3G spectrum is among the major investment
opportunities and growth drivers of the telecom industry.
 The immense potential for 3G is reflected by the 30–40 percent annual growth in ValueAdded Services.
 Cell phone manufacturers are striving to develop USD 100 priced 3G handsets for the Indian
market.
 India expects to replicate its 2G growth in 3G services.
WiMAX has been one of the most significant developments in wireless communication in the recent




past. Since this mode of communication provides network access in inaccessible locations at a speed
of more than 4 Mbps, it is expected to be a major factor in driving telecom services in India, especially
wireless services. Thus, it will lead to the increased use of telecom services, Internet, value-added
services and enterprise services. WiMAX is expected to accelerate economic growth and assist in
providing better education, healthcare and entertainment services.
It is estimated that India will have 13 million WiMAX subscribers by 2012.
Aircel is the pioneer in WiMAX technology in India.
The state-owned player, BSNL, aims to connect 74,000 villages through WiMAX.
Bharti, Reliance and VSNL have acquired licenses in the 3.3GHz range to utilise the opportunities
offered by this domain.
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Value-Added Services and Rural Telephony holds large market
potential in India
Value-Added Services in India (2006–07)
Person to
Application &
Application to
Person SMS,
15%
The VAS industry was worth USD 632 million in
2006–07. The industry is estimated to grow by 60
percent in 2007–08 and become an USD 1,011
million opportunity.
Game & Data, 7%
Others (MMS
etc.), 3%
Ringtone
Dow nload, 35%
Person to Person
SMS, 40%
The VAS industry is currently focussing on the entertainment sector, such as the Indian film
industry and cricket; however, there is scope for growth in other avenues as utility-based
services, such as location information and mobile transactions.
Rural Telephony
Urban Rural Teledensity in India
As the government targets to increase rural teledensity
from the current 2 percent to 25 percent by 2012, rural
telephony will require major investments. This
segment will boost the demand for telecom services,
equipment, Internet services and other value-added
services; thereby, offering great market opportunities
for telecom players.
Teledensity (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
At Year Ending March
Urban
Total
Rural
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