IPPR Conference - 26 October 2005

Building a consensus on national road pricing: the challenges ahead Session 3 The next steps for London Dick Halle Transport for London

What I shall talk about today:

• What has happened in London to date • The effectiveness of measures introduced • Forecast conditions with the need to take further action • London as a pilot to help take national road user charging forward

Recent travel trends

170

Trends in London population, jobs, traffic, public transport use, motoring costs, bus and tube fares

160 150 140 London population Employment Traffic Motoring costs (2004+ DfT projected) Vehicle Km - Major roads Vehicle Km - Minor roads Vehicle Km - Major + Minor roads Bus Passenger Kms Underground Passenger Kms Bus headline fare index Tube headline fare index Bus PKms Underground PKms 130 Employment 120 110 100 90 Underground fares Minor Roads Traffic Major Roads Motoring costs Bus fares Population

Recent road traffic trends

• Travel demand and distance travelled in London has risen in the past 10 years • Traffic growth has been mainly in the: • contra-peak direction • outside the peak periods • during the evening • spreading to local roads • During the working day, TfL and Boroughs have adopted interventions to facilitate people movement at the expense of vehicle movement in places – many restrictions don’t then apply at the weekend • Spare capacity is being filled up and where usage exceeds capacity we see congestion

Traffic congestion

• The main road network runs at capacity in specific locations at specific time • In particular congestion is seen along strategic routes and in outer London town centres

Weekday am peak IT IS graph October 2003 Delay - AM Peak (Working days only - Mon to Fri) Saturday pm off peak IT IS graph October 2003 Delay - PM Off Peak (Saturdays) Road Network Performance and Research Note: - Network shown is ITIS links on Network of Interest.

- AM Peak is 7am to 10am.

- Delay measurement is peak speed compared to night speed (10pm to 6am - free flow) in mins/km - Links with 2 or more observations are shown - Both directions are shown Information derived from data provided by ITIS Holdings obtained from vehicles fitted with GPS devices Delay Measurement (mins per km)

Greater than 2 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5

Less than 1 No Data

Road Network Performance and Research Note: - Network shown is ITIS links on Network of Interest.

- PM Off Peak is 2pm to 4pm.

- Delay measurement is peak speed compared to night speed (10pm to 6am - free flow) in mins/km - All links with one or more observations are included - Both directions are shown Information derived from data provided by ITIS Holdings obtained from vehicles fitted with GPS devices Delay Measurement (mins per km)

Greater than 2 1.5 to 2 1 to 1.5

Less than 1 No Data

Policy interventions have reduced road space

• Signal installations have increased from 3,100 to 4,750 from 1991 to 2003 • An increase in pedestrian crossings and pedestrian phases at traffic signals • A significant increase in bus lanes as part of bus priority • A four fold increase in street / road works by utilities companies from ~78,000 to 350,000 per year between 1993 and 2002

Policy intervention that has ‘increased space available’

• Central London Congestion Charge

The Central London Congestion Charging Scheme

Central London only

Two years on - continued benefits

• Congestion in zone down 30% • Traffic entering charging zone reduced by 18% - cars down 33% • However little change in number of person trips to central area    50 –60% moved to public transport 20 –30% divert round zone 15 –25% other adaptations • Net revenue £100m a year

Total traffic entering the charging zone –

during charging hours 200,000 150,000

Before Charge Feb / Mar 2002 Spring 2002 Autumn 2002 Jan 2003 With Charge Feb / Mar 2003 Spring 2003 Autumn 2003 Spring 2004 Autumn 2004

100,000 50,000 0 Cars Vans Lorries and Others Taxis Buses and Coach Motor Cycles Pedal Cycles

28

Predicted travel growth

27 26

An extra 4m daily trips by 2025

25 24 23 22

Note:

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

The historic trend has been fuelled by a number of trends including strong employment growth, lower fares, increase in capacity on underground (JLE) and latterly sharply increasing bus use. Daily trips for main mode of transport used, includes all walking trips.

Future transport trends

1993-2025 Future Transport Trends

12.00

Projected increase in car trips 10.8m

11.00

10.00

Possible Impact of policies to limit car trips

9.00

8.00

7.6m

Projected increase in public transport trips

7.00

6.00

5.00

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Notes: Includes planned schemes and major infrastructure projects i.e. CTRL, CrossRail, River Crossings, and Intermediate Transit Schemes, plus Congestion Charging Western Extension.

Shows the projected increase in public transport if car trips remain at current levels. Shows the projected increase in car trips taking into account population growth and car ownership/household at current levels. Work is ongoing to further validate and understand recent and projected trend in car trips.

Short, medium and long term strategies for people movement*

Optimising the road network

Long Term: increase network capacity

 Distance-based/new Technology Charging? (2014 onwards)  Channel Tunnel Rail Link (2008-)  Congestion relief on LUL (2010)  National Rail Capacity Improvements (2013)  CrossRail (2015)  and better land use policy

Short Term: optimise

 

Medium Term: manage/ regulate demand

Getting the most from the current network (2004 - )  Smart Measures (2004 onwards)  Western Extension (2007)     Corridor management (2004 -)   Real time management Signal control Street and road works Enforcement  CLoccs re-let with tag and beacon?/ providing more flexibility and improved Bus Priority and enforcement Consistent approach to designing sections of roads through guidance payment channels (2009/10)  Charging in other congested areas? - tag and beacon schemes in congestion centres and on key strategic routes (2010 onwards)

Actively encouraging modal shift

 Approval of schemes on the Strategic Road Network *Links to the Freight Plan are also being made  Funding integrated plans rather than isolated projects

Tif – what role for pilot schemes

To demonstrate:

• Opportunities for policy integration • Options for new technology • Impacts of charging outside Central London • Public acceptability

Why a pilot in London?

• •

Any national scheme has to work in London

40% of England’s excess congestion is in London Wide mix of urban and inter-urban conditions • • • • •

Making use of TfL’s experience and knowledge

Design and assessment Operating and enforcing a real scheme Having a real customer base Charging technology – leading ground breaking trials Important issues for national/local accountability

TfL’s integrated transport responsibilities

Potential Benefits of Wider Road User Charging in London

Distance based charging (2005 prices, values and deterrents), weekdays only All motor vehicles charged except buses, coaches and taxis

Area charges changes in traffic flow base congestion mins/km change in congestion Central Inner

60p/km

working day

30p/km -18% -20% 2.3

1.0

Outer

working day

15p/km -17% 0.7

peaks only

…this would facilitate economic growth and the London Plan -32% -40% -40%

Technologies for Road user Charging

• • •

London trials of alternative road user charging technologies have shown:

Cameras plus ANPR effective solution available now for simple charging schemes.

Tag and beacon technology for use in sensitive urban areas for more flexible charging eg charging by direction or time of day could be developed in short term (by 2009). Satellite and mobile phone location systems for ‘specific’ link based distance based charging need further development for affordable accurate use in urban areas (beyond 2010).

Possible Timeline and Charging Basis

2005 CC Now Single zone Camera/ANPR

Charge:

£8 charge Per day 2009 Single zone Tags with Camera/ANPR Incentivised Tag take up

Options:

1. Single flat rate £8 charge per day • • • 2. Charge by: time of entry/exit direction of travel class of vehicle 2010 Key centres Strategic routes Bridges Tags with Camera/ANPR Beyond 2010 GPS-based RUC across London Incentivised OBU take-up • • • • • •

Variable charges By:

centre route bridge time of entry/exit direction of travel class of vehicle

Example charge Rates

: Central: 60p/km Inner: 30p/km Outer: 15p/km Unequipped vehicles Pay unattractive flat rate

Moving Forward

Possible ways forward in London to help the DfT take national Road User Charging Forward are:

   Developing a demonstration cc scheme using tag and beacon in a congested area, of direct relevance to urban areas outside of London, packaged with improved public transport, walking and cycling, green travel plans and environmental improvements; Developing a London-wide GPS trial testing not only the technology, but with sufficient volunteers to test behavioural responses Sharing knowledge on: setting up and running a cc scheme, technology issues, public transport provision and regulation, other complementary measures, in developing pilots elsewhere

We are currently discussing ways to tackle the growing transport problems London with the boroughs and other key stakeholders.

We hope to be considered for TiF because we want to help inform the development of such a significant policy.