Transcript Yukon Flats Region Government Feasibility Study

Yukon Flats
Regional Government
Feasibility Study
Prepared For:
The University of Alaska Fairbanks
Engineering Science Management and
Civil Engineering Departments…
and…
The Residents of the Communities
of the Yukon Flats
Presented By:
Peter Hewko,
Kathy Campbell,
Mark Parrott, P.E.,
Michael Schmetzer, P.E.,
Michele Desrochers, P.E.,
UAF Masters Candidates
Overview
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Introduction
Regional Profile
Standards for Incorporation
Borough Structure Options
Decision Analysis
Steps to Incorporation
Project Management Requirements
Borough Operational Costs
Potential Revenue Sources
Financial Assessment
Conclusions
Yukon Flats Boundaries
Introduction
• Satisfies two primary purposes
– Provide the Counsel of Athabascan Tribal
Governments (CATG) with a preliminary
planning document
– Satisfy graduate degree requirements of
authors
Considerations
• Issues Forcing the Discussion
– Threat of Annexation
• Originates with FNSB and NSB
– Oil and Gas Potential
• Land Exchange
• Fish & Wildlife Service Interests
• Assessment of Potential Resources
Benefits and Detractors
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Impact to Traditional Way of Life
Self-Determination and Control
Decline of State Oil Revenue
Cost of Education
Cost of Local Government
Economic Growth Potential
Community
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Population Approximately 1300
Area 53,000 square miles
9 Communities
Council of Athabascan Tribal Government
Native Corporation
– Doyon, Limited
– Tanana Chiefs Conference
• Proposed Borough Boundaries Identical to
Existing Rural Education Attendance Area 13
Proposed Yukon Flats Borough
Regional Profile
Demographic Summary
Population Change over Time
1400
Population
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
Regional Profile
Arctic Village
• Population: 146
• Population increasing
• Median Family Income: $19,000
Regional Profile
Beaver
• Population: 67
• Population Decreasing
• Median Family Income: $29,792
Regional Profile
Birch Creek
• Population: 43
• Population Increasing
• Median Family Income: $13,750
Regional Profile
Chalkyitsik
• Population: 84
• Population Increasing
• Median Family Income: $16,875
Regional Profile
Circle
• Population: 99
• Population Decreasing
• Median Family Income: $11,250
Regional Profile
Fort Yukon
• Population: 594
• Population Decreasing
• Median Family Income: $32,000
Regional Profile
Rampart
• Population: 21
• Population Decreasing
• Median Family Income: $23,438
Regional Profile
Stevens Village
• Population: 76
• Population Declining
• Median Family Income: $11,563
Regional Profile
Venetie
• Population: 188
• Population Increasing
• Median Family Income: $21,429
Standards for Incorporation
• Alaska Constitution, Article X
• Alaska Statutes
• Alaska Administrative Code
• Bottom Line - Yukon Flats area appears
able to meet all requirements
Borough Structure Options
• Three Classifications of Boroughs
– Home Rule Borough
– First-Class Borough
– Second-Class Borough
Existing Boroughs in Alaska
16 organized boroughs
• Home Rule (8 of 16)
– Sitka, Juneau, Anchorage, Yakutat, Lake and
Peninsula, Denali, Northwest Arctic, North Slope.
– Over half of Alaska’s population
– Four of Five most recent boroughs
• 2nd Class (7 of 16)
– Bristol Bay, Ketchikan, Gateway, Kodiak, Kenai,
Mat-Su, Fairbanks, Aleutians East
• 3rd Class – No Longer Allowed by Law (1 of 16)
– Haines
Decision to Form Borough
• Multiple Criteria
– Quantitative Impacts
• Costs
• Revenues
• Etc.
– Qualitative Impacts
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Quality of life
Political
Social
Etc.
How do we consider all issues and “calculate” an
answer?
Decision Analysis
• Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
– Identify the decision
– Identify the criteria applicable to the decision
– Prioritize the criteria
– Develop pair-wise comparison matrices of
each alternative with each criteria
– Determine if the consistency level is
acceptable
– Calculate final ranking
Decision Analysis
• Decision
– What type of government structure is best for Yukon
Flats?
• Alternatives
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Unorganized Borough
Home Rule Borough
1st Class Borough
2nd Class Borough
• Criteria
– Surveys
Decision Analysis
Survey to Prioritize Criteria for AHP
• Demographic Information Requested
– Name
– Location of residence
– Title or affiliation
– Description of personal interest in topic of
borough formation
Decision Analysis
Survey to Prioritize Criteria for AHP
• Prioritize the following in order of importance:
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Cost of new borough government
Local planning, platting, and land use powers
Avoidance of annexation
Local control and financing of Public Education
Tribal Government
Tax $$$ from TAPS
Tax $$$ from future gas line
Tax $$$ from future Yukon Flats oil and/or gas
development
Decision Analysis
Survey to Prioritize Criteria for AHP
• Identify other critical issues or criteria
associated with borough formation in the
Yukon Flats
• Do you believe the area would benefit
from the creation of a borough
government? Why or why not?
Decision Analysis
• Criteria Considered
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Tribal Government
Annexation
Cost of Government
Tax on TAPS
Tax on Future Gas Line
Tax on Future Oil & Gas
Property Tax
Public Education
Area-wide Powers
Planning, Platting, and Land Use
Ranking
0.27
0.23
0.16
0.12
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.02
Decision Analysis
• Pair-Wise Comparison
Annexation
Unorganized
Borough Home Rule First Class Second Class
Unorganized
Borough
1.00
0.11
0.11
0.11
Home Rule
9.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
First Class
9.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Second
Class
9.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
28.00
3.11
3.11
3.11
Total
Decision Analysis
• Calculation of Weights of Pair Wise Comparison
Normalized Annexation
nmax = 4.000
Unorganized
Borough
Home
Rule
Unorganized
Borough
0.035
0.035
Home Rule
0.321
First Class
Second Class
CR= -1E-16
First
Class
Second
Class
Row
Average
0.035
0.035
0.035
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.321
Decision Analysis
Development Options
Borough Option
Final Ranking
Unorganized
0.26
Home Rule
0.27
1st Class
0.24
2nd Class
0.24
Recommended Borough Structure
• Home-Rule
– Provides Greatest Degree of SelfDetermination
– Charter Powers Offer Flexibility
– Unified Home Rule with absorption of City of
Ft. Yukon would probably be most efficient
Path to Incorporation
• Preliminary Study
– Can enough money be raised to support a local
government?
– Will people support a local borough government?
• Written Charter
– Local Charter Commission
– Retain Legal Expertise
• Submit Charter to the Local Boundary
Commission
Path to Incorporation
• Hold Election
– Vote on issue of borough formation
– How to pay for local government
– Elect mayor
– Elect assembly members
Path to Incorporation
Project Management Requirements
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Experienced & Committed PM
Qualified Resources
Facilities
Schedule
Funding
Cost Estimate for Local Government Study,
Cost Analyses, and Preparation of Written Charter
Budget Category
2005
Primary Functional Requirements
Local Government Consultant
$60,000
Attorney's Fees
$40,000
Travel - Consultant/Atty to Fort Yukon
$10,000
Travel - Charter Members to Fort Yukon
$60,000
Per Diem
$17,000
Printing and Publications
$5,000
Telephone and Postage
$5,000
Subtotal
$197,000
Contingency 25%
$49,250
ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE
$246,250
Borough Operational Costs
• Education
• Utilities
• Government
Borough Operational Costs
Education
• Yukon Flats REAA 13
– Average Daily Student Count is 307
– Assume Same Needs
• Approximate annual cost is $6.5 million
• 4 mills, Phased over 4 years
Borough Operational Costs
Utilities
• High Electricity Costs – Offset by Power Cost Equalization
• Telephone, School Internet
• Varied Water Sources
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Washeteria
Jugs
Community and Private Wells
Rivers, Lakes
• Sewer
– Primarily Honeybuckets and Lagoons
– Outhouses
– Septic Tanks
• Landfills
• Initial Operations and Management Budget of $1.7 million
Borough Operational Costs
Government
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Seat of Government
Mayor and Assembly
Legal
Finance
Planning and Public Works
Tax Assessment
Total Initial Cost of $1.3 million
Potential Revenue
State and Federal Sources
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Alaska New Borough Organizational Grant
Federal-Related PILT
Federal PILT for Schools
Power Cost Equalization
Property Tax – Oil & Gas Property
Potential Oil & Gas Revenues
North Slope Natural Gas
Shallow Coal Bed Methane
Grant Land Entitlement
Miscellaneous Federal Grants
Potential Revenue
Local Revenue Sources
• Property Tax
– Real and/or Personal Property
– Oil and Gas
• Sales Tax Options
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General Sales Tax
Aviation Fuel Sales
Alcohol License Fees
Commercial Fisheries
• Employment Tax
– Annual Head Tax
• Mineral/Timber Severance Tax
• Industry-Related Payment in Lieu of Taxes
• Gaming
Operational Cost Analysis
Year
2005
2010
2015
Property Tax Mill Rate
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12
16
$470
$1,830
$3,191
-$1,894
-$712
$470
-$2,526
-$1,488
-$451
All values in $1000
20
$4,551
$1,652
$585
Operational Cost Analysis
Budget Surplus Invested at 7.5%
Year
2005
2010
2015
2020
2030
Property Tax Mill Rate
12
16
$1,867
$3,239
$2,336
$11,663
-$3,236
$16,579
-$15,914
$18,205
-$73,467
$8,766
All values in $1000
20
$4,612
$20,991
$36,395
$52,324
$91,000
Conclusions
• Local Borough Government Feasible
– Home Rule
• Property Tax
• Invest Initial Surplus for Future
• More In-Depth Study Recommended
Special Thanks To
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Bruce Thomas
Dan Brockhorst
Jim Mery
Jim Whitaker
Pete Hallgren
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Robert Perkins
Bob Carlson
Leroy Hulsey
Yuri Shur
David Barnes
Photo Acknowledgements
Bill Hess
Mark Parrott
Questions
Thank You