Transcript No Slide Title
Presentation of the ASEAN
Economic intelligence report
--Southeast Asia area Priscilla Haifeng Wu Hao Wang
Outline 1. Introduction - Environment - Political - Economic 2. Trade & Service 3. FDI 4. Issues 5.Prosperous
BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Background Information : Capital Land area Population : : : Bandar Seri Begawan 5,765 sq.km
342,000 (2000) Language : Religion : Government Type Malay Moslem GDP : Major Industries : Constitutional Monarchy Member of : ASEAN, APEC, APT, APDC, Commonwealth, ESCAP, GP 77, GATT/WTO, ICAO, IMO, IMF, WMO, UNDP, WHO, WIPO, WTO-GBT, ASEM, EALAF Currency : B$ (Bruneian Dollar).
: B$ 8.0 (2000) at current market prices Oil and gas, textiles, food and beverages, building materials Major Exports Major Imports food chemicals : : Oil and gas, ready-made garments Transport equipment and machinery, manufactured goods,
CAMBODIA Background Information : Capital Land area Population Language Major Exports Major Imports : : : : Religion : Government Type Buddhism : Constitutional Monarchy Member of : ASEAN, CTBTO, ESCAP, FAO, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, IDA, IFC, IFAD, ILO, IMF, IMO, ITU, LDC, UNO, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UPO, UNIDO, WIPO, WHO Currency GDP : : Major Industries : : Phnom Penh 181,035 sq.km
11.0 million (1999) Khmer Riel Riel 12,406.5 (2000) at current market prices : Textiles and Garments, Beverages, Food Processing, Wood Processing Garments, Textile Product Sawn, Wood Furniture and Rubber Transport equipment and machinery, manufactured goods, food chemicals
INDONESIA Background Information : Capital Land area Population Language : : : : Religion : Government Type Member of : APEC, ASEM, EALAF Jakarta.
1,919,317 sq.km.
212 million (2000).
Bahasa Indonesia Moslem, Christian, Catholic, Buddhism, Hinduism : Republic ASEAN, UN, IMF, ESCAP, FAO, ILO, UNESCO, IBRD, IFC, MIGA, IDB, IDA, ADB, WTO, Currency GDP : : Rupiah Rp. 1,332.2 billion (2000) at current market prices Major Industries : telecommunication, transportation Pulp and paper, cement, basic metals and fertilizer, power generation, Major Exports Major Imports vehicles : : Textile, electronic goods, footwear, oil & gas, plywood, sawn timber Chemical and pharmaceutical, fertilizer, cotton yarns, textile fabric, machines, motor
LAO PDR Background Information : Capital Land area Population Language : : : Vientiane 236,800 sq.km
5.3 million (1999) Lao : Religion : Government Type Buddhism : People's Democratic Republic Member of : UNIDO, UNICEF, WHO, EALAF ASEAN, ADB, ESCAP, FAO, IBRD, WHO, IDA, WIPO, IFC, ILO, IMF, UN, NCTAD, UNESCO, Currency GDP : : Major Industries Kip Kip 13,482 billion (2000) at current market prices Major Exports : : Garment industry, wood-based and processing industries, electricity Coffee, electricity, clothing, wood and forest product and Gypsum Major Imports : Industrial machinery, chemicals, iron, electrical machinery and parts, steel, oil, construction material and consumption goods
MYANMAR Background Information : Capital Land area Population Language : : : : Religion : Government Type Member of : UNIDO, UNICEF, EALAF Yangon 676,575 sq.km
49.0 million (2000) Myanmar Buddhism, Christians, Moslem : State Peace Development Council ASEAN, ADB, ESCAP, ACU, FAO, IBRD, IDA, IFC, ILO, IMF, ITU, WTO, UNESCO, Currency GDP : : Major Industries Myanmar Kyat K 2,408.4 billion (2000) at current market prices Major Exports : : Agro-based industries, textiles industries, steel mills Rice, teak, beans & pulses, rubber, coffee, minerals, gems marine products Major Imports : Power tillers, hand tractor, fertilizer, diesel oil, cement, dumper, loader and spare parts, water pumps, hydraulic excavator
PHILIPPINES Background Information : Capital Land area Population Language : : : Manila 300,000 sq.km
78.4 million (2000) Filipino, English, Spanish : Religion : Government Type Buddhism, Christians, Moslem : Democracy Member of : ASEAN, ADB, APEC, ASEM, FAO, IBRD, IDA, IMF, IFAD, IFC, ILO, UN, UNESCO, UNICEF, UNIDO, WHO, WTO, WCO, WIPO, EALAF Currency GDP : : Major Industries Peso Php 3,322.6 billion (2000) at current market prices : Food, petroleum and coal refining, chemical, electronics and electrical machinery Major Exports : Electronics, garments, machinery and transport equipment, mineral and mineral products, coconut product, sugar, bananas, pineapple, mangoes Major Imports : Materials for the manufacture of electronics/electrical equipment
SINGAPORE Background Information : Capital Land area Population Language : : : : Singapore 647.8 sq.km
4.0 million (2000) English, Malay, Mandarin, Tamil Religion : Government Type Buddhism, Christians, Moslem : Parliamentary Democracy Member of : ASEAN, ADB, APEC, ARF, COMMONWEALTH, FAO, IAEA, IBRD, IDA, IFC, IMF, IFAD, IMO, ILO, ITU, UNIDO, UPO, WHO, ASEM, EALAF Currency GDP : : Singapore Dollar (S$) S$ 159.0 billion (2000) at current market prices Major Industries trading Major Exports : Petroleum products, industrial machines, radio & television receivers & parts, electronic component & parts, clothing, beverages & tobacco Major Imports : component and parts : Electronics, chemicals, banking and finance, real estate, tourism, Crude petroleum, iron & steel, industrial machines, electric generators, electronic
Environment In Economy and Politic
• GDP of Southeast Asia keeps continue growth after financial crisis • Renewed investment in export-oriented industries has led to a recovery in private capital formation. Lower interest rates, lower the public and company’s debt • In terms of domestic demand, consumption growth is also likely to remain weaker in 2001 than in 2000.
• Export growth (in US dollar terms) is likely to slow considerably in 2001; be accompanied by faster import growth (relative to exports) and a further narrowing of the current account surplus in the subregion in 2001.
TRADE
Most of the Southeast Asian region is now a free trade area.
Accounting for over 96 percent of all ASEAN trade.
Table 4 Number of Tariff Lines with tariff of 0-5% of the Six Original Signatories Country Number of tariff Lines in 2001 IL 0-5% >5% Other Total Percentage 0-5% >5%
Brunei Darussalam Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore 6,107 6,483 9,198 5,016 5,859 Thailand 8,193 TOTAL 40,856 Source: ASEAN Secretariat 157 709 841 551 0 911 3,169 12 12 6,276 7,192 10,039 5,567 5,859 9,104 44,037 97.3
90.1
91.6
90.1
100.00
90.0
92.8
2.50
9.9
8.4
9.9
0 10.0
7.2
Other
0.2
0.2
Total
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
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TRADE
· The first six signatories of the Common Effective Preferential Tariff scheme for the ASEAN Free Trade Area have reduced their tariffs on intra-regional trade less than 5%.
· In contrast with the export growth of 7.7 percent in 1999 and 19.8
percent in 2000, ASEAN exports declined in 2001 (Table 3).
· Intra-ASEAN exports grew by 26.3 percent and intra-ASEAN imports by 27 percent in year 2000. Year-on-year, intra-ASEAN exports contracted by 2.7 percent for the first half of 2001 (Table 4) · The three major destinations for ASEAN exports were the United States, European Union, and Japan (see Table 5). In the first half of 2001, with the exception
Table 3. Total ASEAN Trade (1 st Half of 2000 – 1 st Half of 2001) (US$ Million) Country Exports 1st half Brunei D.
Indonesia Malaysia Myamnar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Total 2000 1.522,2 29.355,4 46.177,0 484,7 17.616,2 62.839,2 32.851,5 6.440,0 197.286,2 1st half 2001 1.540,0 29.346,6 44.491,9 1.116,1 15.987,9 63.128,5 32.420,7 7.601,0 195.632,7 Change Value 17,8 -8,8 -1.685,1 631,4 -1.628,3 289,3 -430,8 1.161,0 -1.653,5 % 1,2 0,0 -3,6 130,3 -9,2 0,5 -1,3 18,0 -0,8 Imports 1st half 2000 524,4 13.751,0 38.325,0 1.250,8 15.336,3 61.836,0 28.837,6 7.146,0 167.007,1 1st half 2001 702,2 17.744,9 37.302,7 1.532,4 15.254,9 59.992,9 31.516,1 7.830,0 171.876,1 As of December 13, 2001 Change Value 177,8 3.993,9 -1.022,3 281,6 -81,4 -1.843,1 2.678,5 684,0 4.869,0 % 33,9 29,0 -2,7 22,5 -0,5 -3,0 9,3 9,6 2,9
Table 4. Intra-ASEAN Trade (1 st Half of 2000 – 1 st Half of 2001
)
(US$ Million) Exports Country Brunei D.
Indonesia Malaysia Myamnar Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Total 1st half 2000 478,1 5.192,4 12.461,6 131,2 2.628,6 17.198,6 6.697,4 1.272,0 46.059,9 As of December 13, 2001 1st half 2001 298,7 4.818,9 11.177,7 482,1 2.590,5 16.794,1 7.366,6 1.281,0 44.809,6 Change Value -179,4 -373,5 -1.283,9 350,9 -38,1 -404,5 669,2 9,0 -1.250,3 % -37,5 -7,2 -10,3 267,5 -1,4 -2,4 10,0 0,7 -2,7 Imports 1st half 2000 264,1 3.086,7 7.485,7 669,7 2.414,5 15.028,5 4.747,6 2.016,0 35.712,8 1st half 2001 259,8 2.897,9 6.909,4 734,4 2.349,3 14.421,9 5.078,1 2.153,0 34.803,8 Change Value -4,3 -188,8 -576,3 64,7 -65,2 -606,6 330,5 137,0 -909,0 % -1,6 -6,1 -7,7 9,7 -2,7 -4,0 7,0 6,8 -2,5
Table 5: ASEAN Trade with Major Trading Partners
COUNTRIES
Australia Canada China (Including Hong Kong)* EU India Japan Korea New Zealand Pakistan Russia US
EXPORTS 1st Half 2000 1st Half 2001
3,649.1
3,530.1
813.0
783.2
% Chang e
(3.3) (3.7)
IMPORTS 1st Half 2000
3,886.8
806.6
1 st Half 2001 % Chang e
4,809.7
708.0
23.7
(12.2)
TRADE 1st Half 2000
7,535.9
1,619.6
1st Half 2001 % Chang e BALANCE 1st Half 2000 1st Half 2001
8,339.8
10.7
1,491.2
(7.9) (237.6) 6.4
(1,279.7) 75.3
8,784.3
25,524.
4 2,907.3
18,725.
9 6,533.3
8,787.1
24,640.
1 2,881.1
21,202.
3 6,560.1
0.0
(3.5) (0.9) 13.2
0.4
493.7
194.3
595.5
421.6
229.3
345.1
(14.6) 18.0
(42.0) 26,282.
3 25,049.
6 (4.7) Rest World of the 25,401.
1 25,019.
4 (1.5) 7,490.4
15,364.
0 1,160.4
23,590.
0 6,041.9
399.2
196.3
184.7
19,578.
1 23,375.
9 8,418.8
16,433.
5 1,719.1
21,768.
9 5,832.9
553.9
203.7
316.8
20,669.
4 23,522.
6 12.4
7.0
48.1
(7.7) (3.5) 38.8
3.8
71.6
5.6
0.6
16,274.7
40,888.4
4,067.7
42,316.0
12,575.1
892.8
390.6
780.1
45,860.4
48,777.1
17,205.
9 41,073.
6 4,600.2
5.7
0.5
13.1
42,971.
2 1.5
12,393.
1 (1.4) 975.5
432.9
662.0
9.3
10.8
(15.1) 45,719.
0 (0.3) 48,542.
0 (0.5) 1,293.9
491.4
94.5
(2.0) 410.8
6,704.2
2,025.2
368.2
10,160.
4 1,746.9
8,206.6
1,162.0
(4,864.1
) (566.6) 727.2
(132.3) 25.6
28.3
4,380.2
1,496.8
Note: Data only from Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines and Singapore Submissions.
* Excluding Trade with Hong Kong in Singapore Data.
SERVICE
ASEAN has concluded its negotiations on the third package of commitments for the liberalization of services. The package includes commitments construction, financial in air transport, services, business maritime services, transport, telecommunications, and tourism. Under business services, several commitments have been made on ICT-related services with the view to facilitating the realization of the e-ASEAN initiative.
Member Countries might adopt the like-minded countries approach where agreements could be concluded by those countries that were ready while others could accede at a later time.
FDI entry into ASEAN (1996-2001)
($ B) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (Year) 4 5 6
ISSUES
1. Threaten from China
ASEAN's accumulated net FDI totaled only US$173 billion for 1980-2000 as substantial crowding out by China in 1993-2000 took its toll on the aggregate.
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ISSUES
2. ASEAN Broadens Liberalization of Investment Rules
Any ASEAN investor can now invest in any ASEAN country and enjoy national investor treatment in the manufacturing areas that had been excluded previously. The decision has stepped up the timetable for investment liberalization, which had been set four years ago. Since the launch of ASEAN Investment Area in 1998, Southeast Asian states had started opening up all industries for investment and grant national treatment to ASEAN investors, with some exception as specified in the Temporary Exclusion List.
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ISSUES
3. The Culture and Information – the establishment of bridge of understanding
It aims to improve investor confidence, provide focus on regional economic integration, and other live issues, such as the possibility of the recurrence of the haze and regional cooperation against terrorism.
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ISSUES 4. Democratic Expansion and Democratic Deepening
in Southeast Asia: The Fateful Connection
The movement for democracy in Southeast Asia is in very bad shape.
The crisis is rooted in a number of problems, the principal one being a lack of consciousness of the intrinsic relationship between the mission of democratic expansion in the region and the deepening of democratic practice in the countries where it now has a foothold.
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ISSUES 5. Lessons learned from the Asia Finance Crisis
what is needed are reforms that embrace a number of elements that are vital for economic growth and financial stability?
greater transparency and accountability in government and corporate affairs;
stronger banking systems that protect the savings of small depositors;
the liberalization of capital flows in a prudent and properly sequenced way;
a more level playing field for the private sector—by dismantling monopolies and setting up simpler, more transparent regulatory systems;
reductions in unproductive government spending,
higher and more cost-effective spending on primary health care and education; adequate social protection of the poor, the unemployed etc.
a more effective dialogue with labor and the rest of civil society—to increase political support for adjustment and reform and to ensure that all segments of society benefit.
6. Human rights in ASEAN
The southeast Asia region is generally poor.
Governments range from brutal dictatorships to weak democracies.
Ethnic conflicts and discrimination against minorities are problems in most countries.
Internal wars rage in several parts of the region. Child prostitution and child labor are relatively common, and children and adults in some countries risk having their limbs blown off by land mines. Prison conditions are generally bad, police abuses are common and torture is practiced in some of these countries.
Freedom of expression varies from country to country, but it's generally restricted.