Gerhard Bosch

Der Einstieg der jüngeren Arbeitskräfte ins Berufsleben und die Sicherung der Kompetenzen der älteren Beschäftigten

Sicherung der Qualifikationen und der Kompetenzen der Beschäftigten in Deutschland und Frankreich

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung / Lasaire, 11 April 2011, Paris

Gerhard Bosch

Universität Duisburg Essen Institut Arbeit und Qualifikation Forsthausweg. 2 LE 506 47057 Duisburg

Telefon:

+49.203.379-1827;

Fax:

+49.203.379-1809 Email: [email protected]; www.iaq.uni-due.de

Gliederung 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Jugendarbeitslosigkeit in Europa Berufsbildung und Übergang von Schule in den Beruf in DE und FR Modernisierung des deutschen Berufsbildungssystems Berufliche Bildung oder Akademisierung Erwerbsbeteiligung von Älteren Berufliche Weiterbildung in DE und FR

1.1 Scar effects of a bad start Many studies on long term scar effects of a bad start Examples: Kahn Graduating from college in a bad economy has large, negative and persistent effects on wages. Lifetime earnings are substantially lower than they would have been if the graduate had entered the labour market in good times (Lisa B. Kahn (2010), 'The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy', Labour Economics)

1.2 Scar effects of a bad start Many studies on long term scar effects of a bad start

Examples:

Bell/Blanchflower 2010: Data from the UK 1958 birth cohort (National Child Development Study) Youth unemployment raises unemployment, lowers wages, worsens health and lowers job satisfaction twenty five years later. No such effects could be found for spells of unemployment when the respondents were in their thirties (D.N.F. Bell and D.G. Blanchflower (2009), “What to do about rising unemployment in the UK?’, IZA DP #4040)

1.3 Scar effects of a bad start Recessions may have strong impact on beliefs of young people: Giuliano/Spilimbergo: Data self-reported answers from the General Social Survey during early adulthood – They showed that individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort, support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions and that effects are long-lasting (Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo, 'Growing up in a recession: beliefs and the macroeconomy', NBER Working Paper No. 15321, September 2009)

1.5 Scar effects of a bad start

• • • • • •

Reasons for scar effects:

•

But: Young people as outsiders vulnerable Personality still developing in adulthood Access to good jobs and careers increasingly only with „clean CV‘s“ - without the stigma of a bad start Employment and education systems are often not „forgiving“ Strong age chohorts National differences in scar effects Varieties in VET-systems, recruitment criteria and support for a „second chance“

1.6 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates (%) youth (under 25's) Sep 2010

45 40 35 30 25 % 20 15 10 8,4 8,6 8,6 9,3 12,1 14,8 15,6 16,1 17,9 18,0 19,1 19,5 20,3 20,6 20,6 21,3 21,7 22,2 23,1 24,1 24,3 24,7 25,8 27,5 28,0 28,2 33,3 33,4 34,8 35,2 42,8 5 0

source: Eurostat

1.7 Increase of youth unemployment rates in percentage points (Sep. 2008 – Sep. 2010)

17 15 13 11 10,8 11 11,4 13,3 13,7 15,6 16,6 9 7 5 3 1 -1 -3 -2,2 -0,9 0,9 1 1,4 1,4 3,1 3,3 3,4 3,6 4,2 4,3 4,5 4,6 4,6 4,8 5,8 5,8 6,9 7,3 7,7 7,7

source: Eurostat

3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 4

1.8 Youth unemployment rate in relation to total unemployment rate Sep. 2010 source: Eurostat

2.1 Types of VET A Heuristic Typology of European VET Systems Type of VET system Apprenticeship-based Countries Austria, Germany , Denmark Continental school-based Netherlands, France Market-led General Education Egalitarian School-based UK, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Poland, Hungary Finland, Sweden

2.1 Population that has Attained Upper Secondary Education and Upper Secondary Enrolment Rates by Orientation of Programmes (2006)

Upper secondary enrolment rates* General programmes Vocational programmes All programmes Of which: combined school and work based

Apprenticeship-based

Austria 22,7 77,3 Denmark 52,3 47,7

Germany

42,6 57,4

Continental school-based

Netherlands 32,4 67,6

France

56,2 43,8

Market-led

UK Ireland

General Education

Greece Spain Hungary 58,6 65,5 68,3 56,6 76,4 41,4 34,5 31,7 43,4 23,6

Egalitarian School-based

Sweden 42,9 57,1 Finland 33,3 66,7 Source: OECD (2009), Education at a glance Table C1.4 Note:* Percentage of upper secondary graduates in the population at the typical age of graduation by programme orientation. m = missing; a = not applicable

33,3 47,2 42,2

18,5

12,1

m 2,2 a 1,9 13,2 a 11,5

2.3 Stellung der Berufsbildung im Bildungssystem

Berufsbildung und allgemein bildende Schulen 2004 Ohne Berufs ausbildung Nur Duales System Duales System + Studium Nur Studium Berufs Fachschul-, Assistenten-, Beamten-, ausbildung ohne mit Hauptschulabschluss Realschulabschluss u. ä.

Fachhoch schulreife Hoch schulreife

6 6 3 15 15 11 11 23 21 21 18 19 18 2.4 French system of initial vocational training within the education system (excluding classes which prepare students for the entry exams to the Grandes Écoles and engineering schools)2.4

Doktorat Master Lycée général Collège Ecole primaire Licence professionnelle en université, IUT et/ou association avec des lycées, éventuellement en apprentissage Diplôme universitaire de technologie (DUT), Brevet de technicien superieur (BTS), université (IUT) ou lycée (classes de STS), temps plein ou apprentissage Brevet d‘études professionnelle (BEP. 2 ans), certificat d‘aptitudes professionnelles (/CAP, 2 ou 3 ans), baccalauréat professionnel (3 ans) en lycée ou apprentissage Ecole maternelle Age théorique Note: In grey vocational training programs. Possible re-orientation or pursuit of studies: full arrow

.

Source: Mehaut 2010

2.5 Research on transition from education to work Myriad studies:

• • • •

Fast and stable transition in countries with apprenticeship systems – apprentices are insiders Relatively fast, but often not sustainable transitions in market-led systems Most difficult transitions in countries with GE and high levels of Employment protection legislation Difficult transitions from school-based VET – school leavers are outsiders

2.6 Transition from Education to Work: Unemployment rates and labour force experience (in years): ISCED 3 leavers (1990‘s) Source: Müller/Gangl, Transitions from Education to Work in Europe, Oxford 2003

2.7 Average duration of school-to-work transition by gender in eight EU Countries 2006* Country Austria France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Spain Sweden UK EU (unweighted) Men

0,9 1,8 0,1 3,2 3,5 3,4 3,8 1,6 1,9 1,9

Women

0,8 1,5 0,1 1,8 2,0 3,1 3,3 1,0 1,8 1,5

Both sexes

0,9 1,4 0,1 2,7 2,8 3,4 3,6 1,4 1,8 1,7

* Median time taken by youths to engage in current jobs calculated by subtracting job tenure in current jobs from the time elapsed since completing highest level of education.

Source: OECD 2008 Employment Outlook:48

3.1 Modernisierung der Berufe in DE

Zwischen 1998 und 2006 62 Berufe neu geschaffen: Gemischte Bilanz Erfolgreiche neue Berufe (z.B. IT-Berufe 2007: 14 817 Neuabschlüsse ) Misserfolge (z.B. Film/Videoeditor/in 2007: 39 Neuabschlüsse ) 162 Berufe modernisiert: Überwiegend positiv, aber Chance verpasst, Berufe in Berufsfamilien zusammenzufassen z.B. im Bürobereich Spezialinteressen von Verbänden verhindern zum Teil Zusammenfassungen von Berufen

3.2 Training curriculain the German metalworking trades 1987 and 2004 - 1987 - 45, 1987 - 16, 2004 – 5 occupations

3.3 Basic learning forms in vocational training Orders Complex Products Small Products

Customer Orientation Class Room Orientation Product Orientation Project Orientation

Increasing Work Orientation

Source: Bosch 2000a

3.4 Stärken des dualen Systems der Berufsbildung

International vergleichende Betriebsstudien

(z.B. Wagner, Finegold u.a.):

Erleichtert moderne Formen des Arbeitsorganisation

Hohe Handlungskompetenz auf dezentraler Ebene: erleichtert flache Hierarchien und fördert Diffusion neuer Technologien Mittlere Führungsebene kommt von unten: Besserer Kommunikationsfluss als in USA oder UK mit großer Kluft zwischen akademischer Führungsebene und un- und angelerntem shop-floor Geheimnis der hohen Produktivität und Qualität („Made in Germany“) Bis zu 30 % Produktivitätsvorteil zwischen D, UK, USA bei gleichen Produkten

4.1 The role of tertiary education

•

Percentage of highly skilled jobs (ISCO 1-3) in most developed countries between 15 and 25%

•

Share of graduates from tertiary education exceeding the share of highly skilled jobs in many countries

•

Increasing mismatch because of expansion of tertiary education

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

4.2 Share of population in skilled jobs and share of population with tertiary education (2006)

share of the 25-to-64-year-old working population in skilled jobs (ISCO 1-3 Managers, Professional, Technicians and Associate Professionals) and share of the 25-to-64-year-old population with tertiary education (2006) 50% 45% share of the 25-to-64-year-old working population in skilled jobs share of the 25-to-64-year-old population with tertiary education 40% 35% 30%

Source: OECD, Education at a glance 2008

4.3 Impacts of the „academic drift“

•

Overproduction of graduates

•

increasing rates of unemployment

•

increasing inequalities of returns to higher education

•

Displacement of graduates from VET

•

Skill shortages at the craft level

•

Increasing difficulties to revitalize VET

•

Polarization of the skill structure

•

Need of new „Vocationalism“ in tertiary education

5.1 Employment rate people aged 55-64 by level of education in FR, DE and SE, in 2005

90,0 80,0

MEN 78,3

70,0 60,0

62,6 70,0 62,7 57,0 52,6

50,0 40,0

45,2

30,0

27,3

20,0 10,0 0,0 Low

37,4 36,6

Medium High

source:

Eurostat: Statistic in focus 15/2006

23,0 22,0

Low

WOMEN 64,6 29,8 31,9

Medium

44,4 80,0

High

50,0 FR SE DE

5.2 Main reasons for high employment rates of all groups in SE compared to DE and FR

- Good basic education and training plus high

investments in LLL

- Low age discrimination - No seniority based pay systems - Solidarity wage policy – reduction of mobility

costs

- Flat hierarchies - Proactive health and safety policy - High level of gender equality - No early retirement policy

5.3 The Structure of Earnings by Age and Gender

MEN WOMEN

5.4 The Structure of Earnings by Age and Gender

MEN WOMEN

6.1 Weiterbildung in DE und FR In beiden Ländern Rentenreform bildungspolitisch nicht unterfüttert Deutschland hatte in der Arbeitsmarktpolitik gutes System der zweiten Chance

• •

Förderte Berufsausbildung für Arbeitslose Durch Hartz-Reformen Umschulungen fast eingestellt trotz guter Evaluationsergebnisse

• • •

Frankreich - Fondssystem: Meistens kurze Weiterbildungen Höhere Abgabe für Leiharbeiter und befristete Beschäftigte Zunahme der Weiterbildung durch Einführung des Droit individuel à la formation

6.2 Participation in further education and training 2007 Participation rate in % Hours of education training per participant EU-15 DK DE FR NL AT SE UK All 34.6

37.6

43.1

34.1

42.1

39.8

69.4

40.3

source: EU Adult Education Survey 50 years and older 26.4

32.5

33.7

21.3

33.1

30.7

63.7

35.6

71 121 76 57 59 92 73 48

6.3 Eintritte in berufliche Weiterbildung SGB II und SGB III, Deutschland gesamt EINTRITTE

Publikationen Bosch, Gerhard / Charest, Jean (eds.), 2010: Vocational training: international perspectives. New York [u.a.]: Routledge Bosch, Gerhard, 2010: In Qualifizierung investieren: ein Weiterbildungsfonds für Deutschland. Expertise. Bonn: FES. Wiso Diskurs http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/wiso/07668.pdf

Bosch, Gerhard / Krone, Sirikit / Langer, Dirk (Hrsg.), 2010: Das Berufsbildungssystem in Deutschland: aktuelle Entwicklungen und Standpunkte. Wiesbaden: VS, Verl. für Sozialwiss