Transcript Long-term Outlook for Gas to 2035

Outlook for European gas markets
- Import options and routes - LNG vs. pipeline gas
- Implications of unconventional gas production
Malta Energy Conference
10-11th July, 2014
Dr. –Ing. Leonhard Birnbaum, Vice President, Eurogas
Five options to meet Europe’s gas import need
600
North
Sea
4. Southern
Corridor
European import need
5. Russia
3. LNG
Gas demand and supply [bcm]
2010
2015
2020
Import gap
2025
Unconventionals
UK
NL
NOR
Other
2030
2. North Africa
Demand
Diverse supply options: Russia, North Africa, LNG, Southern corridor and unconventional gas
Reference: Wood Mackenzie and E.ON sources
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Option 1: Unconventional gas has significant potential
in Europe…
…but law, public opinion, and costs make European shale gas hard to extract
Source: The Economist
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Option 2: North Africa
Potential supplies for Europe?
North Africa 2030 (bcm/a)
135
182
Galsi
(8 bcm/a)
47
Supply
Medgaz
(8 bcm/a)
Transmed
(33 bcm/a)
Green Stream
(8 bcm/a)
46
Own Use Available
Imports 2013
Existing pipeline
planned pipeline
North Africa
LNG receiving terminal
LNG liquefaction terminal
…if Europe wants to further diversify supplies, LNG and the Southern corridor could be key…
North African Supply: LNG and Pipeline Gas Supply from Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia
Own use:Demand in producing countries
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Option 3: LNG terminals support global sourcing
further…
LNG 2030 (bcm/a)
LNG
296
124
178
55
Regas
capacity
2030
LNG
imports
2030
Regas
capacity
2013
LNG
imports
2013
LNG receiving terminal
LNG liquefaction terminal
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LNG Supply: Regas Capacity minus volumes contracted to other than European markets; 2013 shows Regas Capacity vs. actual imports
LNG and pipeline gas will compete in Europe
Bullish signals for LNG to Europe
• Lower pipeline gas availability
• Security of supply concerns
Energy
Turnaround
Temp nuclear
shut-down
• Growing US LNG (shale) supplies
• Replacement of LNG by pipeline gas in Asia (e.g.
Energy self-sufficiency
Environmental
Concerns
Russia/China gas pipeline)
• Stronger renewables growth in Asia
Bearish signals for LNG to Europe
Major trade flows
Coal
• Continuously growing gas to power demand in
Biggest LNG
exporter
Asia and South America
LNG
• Lower (shale) gas production in Asia and South
America
• Potential nuclear phase out in Asia
• Additional liquefaction capacity falling short of
predictions
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Option 4: Southern corridor has significant potential to
bring new pipeline gas to Europe
Southern Corridor 2030 (bcm/a)
Bulgary-Austria
312
388
76
White Stream South Caucasus
Pipeline
(> 8 bcm/a)
(+16 bcm/a)
TAP
(10 bcm/a)
13*
TANAP (16 bcm/a)
Supply
Own
Use5)
Available
Imports 2013
Trans Caspian
Gas Pipeline
IGI / Poseidon
(8 bcm/a)
Iran-Turkey
East Med
(8 bcm/a)
Israel-Turkey/
Medstream
Southern
corridor
Existing pipeline
planned pipeline
Southern Corridor: Azerbaijan, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Cyprus
•
Volumes to Turkey
Own use: Demand in producing countries
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Levant basin – One of the largest gas finds of the last
decade with potential for Europe
Gas from Levant basin: interesting new supply
option for Southern corridor
• Large volumes of gas
• Located close to EU and Southern gas corridor
• Relatively low investment and operating costs for
pipeline export to Europe
• Various new supply projects could foster Turkey’s
hub development and closer link of EU and
Turkish markets
Nevertheless, Europe has to cope with global
competition for Levant basin’s gas
• Support multinational alignment between
stakeholders
• Provide consistent political framework that allows
for long-term investment decisions in favor of
European gas supply
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[Source: Oxford Institute for Energy Studies]
A more diverse portfolio of sources and routes will
increase security of supply in Europe
Competing European Gas Supply Sources
Supply Volumes [bcm/a]
Demand?
600
Russia
North
Sea
LNG
Global LNG?
400
28%
Southern
Corridor
Iraq, Iran?
200
43%
UCs?
0
2015
North Africa
2020
2030
Industry requires consistent political framework that encourages companies to seek
out and develop the most economically viable options to source and transport gas
into Europe
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Contact details
Av. de Cortenbergh 172
1000 Brussels
BELGIUM
Phone:
+32 2 894 48 48
[email protected]
www.eurogas.org
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