Transcript Slide 1

Welcome
to the
Presentation on
“Regional Pipelines & LNG”
Prabhat Singh
Director (Marketing)
Contents
1.
Economic and Energy Outlook in Asia/India
2.
Gas Market Scenario in India: Opportunities
and Challenges
3.
Regional Pipelines & LNG
4. Experience of Regional Pipelines
Emerging Economies to Drive Growth
Estimated Growth in Real GDP, 2014
Emerging & Developing Economies
Advanced Economies
World
Source: IMF
: 5.9%
: 2.3%
: 4.1%
Incremental Growth in Global Energy Demand
16961 Mtoe
Increase in Mtoe
4 500
4 000
China
3 500
India
3 000
Other developing Asia
2 500
Russia
Middle East
2 000
Rest of world
1 500
OECD
1 000
500
0
2010
(12002 Mtoe)
Source: IEA
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
India’s Energy Scenario
• GDP over $1.8 Trillion for 2011-12, growing @ 7%
• 4th largest energy consumer (559 MTOE); Expected to be 3rd
largest by 2020
• Energy supply requirement of 3-4 times in next two decades
• 13th largest gas consumer (60 BCM)
• One of the large LNG importers (12.5 MMTPA) in Asia; LNG meets
~ 30% of total demand
• Oil and Gas accounted for 1/3rd of India’s total imports
Large Investment Opportunity in India’s Energy Sector
India’s Energy Demand
Final energy demand by fuel type1
Mtoe
CAGR
2010–2050
Energy consumption in India to grow by 3%
with natural gas growing the fastest at 4.5%
3.0% p.a.
1,592
113
+4.5%
+4.3%
1,123
53
+2.8%
+3.2%
488
57
88
175
2010
328
370
2030
2050
1 Differs from primary demand due to exclusion of the conversion losses in the power generation industry
SOURCE: McKinsey Global Energy Perspective 2050
+1.9%
Gas
Petroleum products
Power
Other
Coal
Evolving Energy Mix – Increasing Share of Gas
200 bcm
2%2%
58 bcm
1% 5%
51%
30%
2010
26 bcm
53%
25%
Oil
Natural Gas
2030
Coal
20%
Nuclear
Hydro
11%
1% 6%
12 bcm
8% 32
1990%
53
6%
%
1%
36
%
2000
49
%
8%
Natural gas currently ~11% of India’s energy
mix; Expected to reach 20% by 2030
Source: BP Statistics 2012, Energy Outlook 2030
Gap Between Demand and Domestic Supply
(BCM)
GAP
64- 68
120-124
102-106
80
16-20
22-26
60
(At current coal & fertilizer
pricing. Will change as
power and fertilizer policy
reforms progress)
SOURCE: McKinsey, GAIL
Domestic Supply Insufficient, Necessitating Imports
Gas supply from various sources
BCM
Domestic sources
1
15
4.5
2.5
ONGC
OIL
PMT
RIL KG
Other JV Domestic Contracted
LNG
Spot LNG Total
Import Options –Regional Pipelines & LNG
Options
Regional /
Crossborder
pipelines
LNG
Advantages
• Economical over shorter distances upto 1500 – 2000 Km
• Provides gas supply solution for land-locked countries
• Preferred for intra-region gas supply.
Disadvantages
• Costlier for longer hauls (>3000 Km)
• Susceptible to Geo-political factors
• The supply source is generally fixed and, hence, offers very little/no
flexibility for diversification of supply sources
Advantages
• Economical over long distances.
• Offers diversification of supply sources
• Provides increased flexibility in gas trade
• Greater stability and certainty for megaprojects
• Little impact of geo-political factors
Disadvantages
• Costlier for shorter distances
• LNG chain is complex and entails huge investment
Emerging Natural Gas Infrastructure
TAPI P/L
IPI PL
FROM PAKISTAN
CHAINSA –
JHAJJAR –
HISAR P/L
DADRI –
BAWANA –
NANGAL P/L
NANGAL
BHATINDA
Hisar
GREP II
DELHI
Jhajjarr
BAREILLY
GURGAUN
MATHANIA
JAISALMER
DVPL PH-II
AURAIYA
AGRA
LUCKNOW
DISPUR
JAGDISHPUR
BARMER
KANPUR
PATNA
GWALIOR
PHOOLPUR
KOTA
UJJAIN
RAJKOT
JHANSI
VARANASI
VIJAYPUR
GAYA
AGARTALA
BOKARO
BHOPAL
JABALPUR
AHMEDABAD
KOLKATA
BHILAI
DAHEJ I & II
10 mmtpa
CUTTACK
BHARUCH
BARODA
DAMRA
SURAT
MUMBAI
HAZIRA
3.6 mmtpa
BHUBANESHWAR
PUNE
KRISHNAPATNAM
RAJAMUNDRY
DABHOL
5 mmtpa
SOLAPUR
KOLHAPUR
HYDERABAD
GOA
MALLAVARAM
BHILWARA P/L
NELLORE
BANGALORE
CHENNAI
MANGALORE
KOCHI-KANJIKKOD-BANGALOREMANGALORE P/L
TIRUCHCHIRAPALLI
KANJIKKOD
KOCHI
2.5 mmtpa
SURAT-PARADIP P/L
KAKINADA
VIJAYAWADA
DABHOL-BANGALORE P/L
HALDIAJAGDHISPUR P/L
EWPL
Transmission Pipelines
Existing Gas pipelines
LPG Pipeline
GAIL’s Planned Pipeline
RIL’s East West Pipeline
COIMBATORE
LNG Terminal
TUTICORIN
Map not to Scale
Existing and Projected Regasification Capacity
LNG Terminal
Dahej
Hazira
Dabhol
Kochi
East Coast
Total LNG Capacity (MMTPA)
Total LNG Capacity (BCM)
2012-13
2016-17
10.0
3.6
1.2
2.5
15.0
10.0
5.0
5.0
-
5.0
17.3
40
23
53
Additional Re-Gas Capacity Reqd. (BCM)
15
Additional Re-Gas Capacity Reqd (MMTPA)
11
Source: MOPNG, GAIL
Opportunity to Develop 2-3 more Regas Terminals in Near Future
Experience of Regional Pipelines : TAPI
TURKMENISTAN-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN-INDIA (TAPI) PIPELINE
• Initially conceptualized in mid-1990s
• Pipeline Length
: 1735 Km
• Gas Source
: Yolotan Osman (Galkynysh)
• Gas Volume
: 90 MMSCMD
India
: 38 MMSCMD
Pakistan
: 38 MMSCMD
Afghanistan
: 14 MMSCMD
• Estimated Cost
: USD 7.6 Billion
Experience of Regional Pipelines : TAPI (contd…)
• Inter Governmental Agreement (IGA) and Gas Pipeline Framework
Agreement (GPFA) signed during the TAPI summit held at Ashgabat
on 11th December 2010.
• India-Turkmenistan and Pakistan-Turkmenistan GSPAs signed on
23rd May 2012.
• ADB shall be the Transaction Advisor.
• Road shows held from 11th to 20th Sept. 2012.
Experience of Regional Pipelines : IPI
IRAN-PAKISTAN-INDIA (IPI) PIPELINE
• Preliminary agreement signed between Iran and India in Feb 1999
• Pipeline Length
: 2775 Km (56” Dia)
• Gas Source
: South Pars field
• Gas Volume
: 110 MMSCMD
• In 2009, India withdrew from the project over pricing and security issues
• In March 2010, talks resumed between India, Pakistan and Iran.
• However, little concrete progress in the pipeline project in the last 2-3
years.
Experience of Regional Pipelines : Oman-India P/L
OMAN-INDIA PIPELINE
• Initially conceptualized in mid-1990s
• Project envisaged laying of 1100 km of sub-sea pipeline from Oman in
Middle east to India at depths upto 3,500 metres.
• Project could not take-off due to considerable technical challenges
• With recent successes in deep sea pipeline laying, the project may
become feasible.
IN VIEW OF SIGNIFICANT GEO-POLITICAL AND TECHNICAL CHALLENGES
INVOLVED IN CONSTRUCTING CROSS-COUNTRY PIPELINES, INDIA HAS GONE
AHEAD WITH BUILDING LNG REGAS TERMINALS – BOTH ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE.
GAIL Offtake from Sabine Pass
In December 2011, GAIL signed a 20-year SPA with
Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC for supply of 3.5
million tonnes/year of LNG
Shale Gas Deals by Indian Firms
TAPI GSA Signed
• In May 2012, GAIL signed GSA with its counterpart ,
paving the way for ambitious TAPI pipeline
• GAIL will receive 14 BCM / Year from the project.
• Transit Fee already finalised between stakeholders
Thank You