Transcript International Shipping and Climate Change

International Shipping and
Climate Change
Michael Sutton
A/g Executive Director
Infrastructure and Surface Transport Policy
Outline
• UNFCCC framework, role of ICAO and IMO
• Emissions from fuel used for international transport
• International shipping and reduction measures
• IMO work on GHG policy framework
International transport emissions
600
52.9%
550
CO2 emissions (Mt)
500
450
Maritime
42.5%
400
350
Aviation
300
250
200
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: International Energy Agency
International process
• National targets under UNFCCC
• Address International bunkers
through ICAO and IMO
• Post Kyoto congruent process
towards end 2009 agreement
• CO2 principal greenhouse gas in
relation to transport
Estimates of global shipping emissions
Study
Fuel Consumption CO2
MMT
MMT
IMO 2000
138 (120-147)
419.3
Endresen et. al. 2003
158
501.0
Corbett & Koehler 2003
289
912.0
Eyring et. al. 2005
280
812.63
IMO 2007 study - Informal Cross
Government/Industry/scientific group of
experts
369
1120
Shipping sector
• World GDP grew by 4.0% while volume of world trade grew
by 8.0%
• 60,000 ships in world trade as at January 2007
• Estimated to grow by11% by 2020
• Big ships to grow by around 60% over the period
• Estimated fuel consumption nearly 500 million tons in 2020,
a one quarter increase in fuel consumption from 2007
figures.
Reduction measures
Three broad categories
– Technical: fuel efficiency measures or alternate fuel and energy source
– Operational: ship/port operational changes for improved efficiency and
fuel savings
– Market based: economic instrument to encourage behavioural change
Technical measures
• Short term energy savings achievable through application of
current technologies
• Potential of technical measures to reduce CO2 emissions
estimated as 5-30% in new ships and 4-20% in existing ships
• HFO quality poor and approaching acceptable critical
specification both environmentally and for engine performance
Operational measures
• Potential of operational measures estimated as 1-40%
• Speed selection alone results in highest reduction of CO2
• 25% reduction in turn around time reduces CO2 by 1-4%
• Reduction in turn around time with speed selection can reduce
CO2 by 14-17%
Market based measures
• Can drive technical and operational changes
• Ship emissions outside national control
• Policy instrument needs to be comprehensive and global
in scope
IMO 2009 GHG study
• Update to GHG 2000 study to inform IMO deliberations on a
global agreement by end 2009
• Phase I to inform on current inventories, future scenarios and
climate impact from CO2 emissions
• MEPC 58 in October to discuss Phase I of the report
• Phase 2 to fully inform on current inventories, future scenarios,
climate impact and reduction potential
GHG: IMO fundamental principles
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Effective in contributing to reduction of total global GHG emissions
Binding and equally applicable to all flag states
Cost effective
Able to limit or effectively minimise competitive distortion
Should not penalise global trade and growth
Goal based approach and not prescribe specific methods
Support technical innovation and R&D in shipping
Accommodate leading technologies in energy efficiency
Practical, transparent, fraud free and easy to administer
IMO timeline
• Keep one step ahead of the UNFCCC process
Possible Technical and Operational Measures
MEPC 57
Agreement on:
- Sulphur content in
fuel
- Fundemental
principles for GHG
regulations
- Timeline to 2009
Mar-08
Intersessional CG
Detailed proposals
on measures
identified
Interim report
MEPC 58
Final Report MEPC
59
Intersessional
MEPC WG
CO2 Design and
Operational Index
MEPC 58
Possible Agreement on:
- CO2 index
Market Based
Measures
- Technical and
operational best practices
Technical and
operational Best
Practices
Discuss Market Based
options
Jun-08
GHG Study
Phase I
CO2 emission
inventory
Oct-08
Intersessional
MEPC WG
Consider GHG
Study
MEPC 59
Formulation of
Market Based
Measure/s
GHG Study
Phase II
GHG other than
CO2
Mar-09
Jul-09
Intersessional CG
Final report to
MEPC 59
Technical,
operational and
market based
options
Future emission
scenarios
PossibleCO2 Index
UNFCCC
COP 15
1-12 Dec 2009
Short term
deliverable plan
and long term work
plan
Dec-08
Intersessional CG
Interim report to
MEPC 58
Possible GHG Reduction Strategy
Science Based Report
IMO Assembly
Agreement on
GHG reduction
strategy
Nov-09
Conclusion
• No easy answers
• Establish baseline, allocate emissions, design CO2 ship
index, develop technical and operational best practices and
formulate market based policy instrument
• Global solution
• Simple, practical and effective
• Does not penalise global trade and growth in shipping
industry