Transcript Slide 1
Chairman, BPDB
November 13, 2009
Electricity Growth
: 5.8 % in 2009
7.0 % Av. since 1990
GDP Growth rate
: Around 6 pc (last 5 years)
Installed Capacity
: 5700 MW (Private: 1900)
Total Consumer
: 11.5 Million
Transmission Line
: 8,000 km
Distribution Line
: 2,60,000 km
Distribution Loss
: 14.6 %
Per Capita Generation
: 183 kWh / annum
Access to Electricity
: 47 %
2
80 Million people do not have access to electricity
Rest 60 Million are getting unreliable power
Load shed up to 1500 MW during hot summer days
Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained
economic growth
3
To make electricity available for all by the year 2020
To ensure reliable and quality supply of electricity
To provide electricity at a reasonable and affordable
price
To make country load shedding free beyond 2010
4
Present Generation Capacity
(Derated) (MW)
Present Demand (MW)
:
Present Available Generation (MW)
: 3800 ~ 4300
Recent Maximum Generation (MW)
: 4296 (Sep. 18, 09)
Maximum Load Shedding in FY-09 (MW)
: 1270 (April 23, 09)
5166
: 4200 ~ 5500
5
Public Sector
SL.
MW
1.
BPDB
2522
2.
APSCL
606
3.
EGCB
190
Subtotal
3318
Private Sector
1.
IPPs
2.
SIPPs (BPDB)
99
3.
SIPPs (REB)
226
4.
15 YR. Rental
114
5.
3 YR. Rental
138
1271
Subtotal
1848
Total
5166
6
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Public Sector : 480 MW
Private Sector : 272 MW
Subtotal
: 752 MW (Commissioning expected by Dec 2009)
UNDER PROCUREMENT PROCESS
Public Sector : 900 MW
Private Sector : 450 MW
Subtotal
: 1350 MW (Commissioning expected by FY11-FY13)
COMMITTED
Public Sector : 995 MW
Private Sector : 450 MW
Subtotal
Total
: 1445 MW (Commissioning expected by FY13-FY14)
: 3547 MW
7
Year
FY-09
FY-10
FY-11
FY-12
FY-13
FY-14
DemandSupply
Gap(MW)
1750
1400
1800
1850
1500
1750
Demand-Supply Gap (Load Shedding) is increasing. By the year
2014 this gap will be around 1750 MW
8
DEMAND
SUPPLY GAP
9000
8000
7000
6000
MW
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
June,09
FY 2010
Year
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
Max. Demand considering DSM
Depandable Capacity (with gas crisis)
9
Gas: No significant gas discovery in recent years; Off-shore
gas exploration under PSC and increased reserved in present
field may change the scenario
Coal: Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load
Oil: Volatile market; high price; only for peaking duty
Nuclear: Safe technology; no pollution; future Base Load
10
Gas supply limitation forced to shift from PSMPs
‘sufficient gas scenario’ to ‘limited gas, coal scenario’
Oil for only peaking duty; FO cost is 50 % cheaper than
HSD
Emphasis on ‘Renewable Energy’ sources
Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy Efficiency
program to reduce demand and emission
11
Shifting peak load by changing shop closer time:
reduce 350 MW demand
Staggering holiday: reduce 150 MW demand
Replacing ‘incandescent lamp’ by CFL: reduce 200 MW
demand by June 2010
Introduction of DST
Steps to reduce ‘air-conditioning’ load
Energy efficiency improvement program by enhancing
‘Energy Auditing’
12
Renewable Energy Policy (2008)
- 5 % of total generation by 2015 : 450 MW
- 10 % of total generation by 2020 : 1600 MW
Hydro: small hydro potential exists; limited scope
Wind: At least 200 MW wind by 2013
Solar: Existing Capacity: 15 MW – 20 MW (Solar Home System)
- Need at least 80 – 100 MW by 2013
- Still high cost ; off grid solution; may compete with oil
Renewable will help in mitigating balance deficit
13
Immediate: 6-12 Months
- Rental Plants (liquid fuel) : 500 MW
Short term: 18-24 Months
- Peaking Plants (liquid fuel): 800 MW
Medium term: 3-5 years
- Gas or dual fuel based Power Plants: 1300 MW
- Coal plants: 2000-2600 MW
14
Demand-Supply Gap up to 2015
12000
10000
MW
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
June,09
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
FY 2013
FY 2014
Year
Max.Demand considering DSM
Depandable Capacity( with gas crises)
FY 2015
Thakurgaon - 50 MW
Syedpur - 50 MW
Jamalpur - 30 MW
Katakhali - 50 MW
Bheramara - 100 MW
Madanganj - 100MW
Noapara - 100 MW
Barisal - 50 MW
Total: 530 MW
16
Total: 820 MW
Shantahar, Nawgaon - 50 MW
Katakhali - 50 MW
Baghabari - 50 MW
Bera - 70 MW
Ghorasal – 200 MW
Faridpur - 50 MW
Gopalganj - 100 MW
Doudkandi,Comilla- 50 MW
Hathazari- 100 MW
Dohazari - 100 MW
17
SL
Name of the Project
Fuel
Capacity (MW)
1.
Bibiyana 2nd Unit
Gas
2.
Meghnaghat dual Fuel
CC
Gas and
HFO
300-450
300-450
3.
Bhola 2nd CC
Gas
4.
Savar (Tannery industry)
Gas and
HFO
5.
Kaliakoir (near IT park)
Gas and
HFO
100
6.
Imported Coal Based
Steam Plant- 4 units
Imported
Coal
2000-2600
Total
3925 MW
150-225
100
18
Solar Projects
Sl.NO
1
2
3
Location
Sharisabari, Jamalpur
Regional Training Centre, Rajshahi
Rajabarihat, Godhagari, Rajshahi
Capacity(MW)
2-4
1-2
2-4
4
Kaptai Power Station (Public Sector)
Total
4-5
9-15
Wind Projects
1
Anowara, Chittagong (off-shore)
100 MW
19
Meghnaghat
Zajira
Khulna
Chittagong
20
Site, Size and Technology
After detail feasibility study the site/s for imported coal based
power project/s will be identified and EIA will be done
Multiple units of each 500 - 700 MW capacity in a single suitable
location for economy of scale
Choice of Supercritical Pressure Technology
- efficiency of supercritical pressure coal power plant is 42-45%
- Green house gas emission will be less
- CDM benefit can be claimed
- Financing will be comparatively easy
Requirement of Coal will be around 6 Million tones annually for
2600 MW (daily 16,000 tones)
Investment requirement for 2600 MW : Around 4 bn US $
21
Estimated Total Investment Cost ( During 5 Year)
Generation
: 7,000 Mill US $
Transmission
: 1,000 Mill US $
Distribution
: 1,500 Mill US $
Total
: 9,500 Mill US $
(GOB 850 Mill US $)
Balanced expansion and up gradation of Transmission and Distribution with
Generation Expansion Plan will improve overall power supply situation and
thereby help economic and social development of the country
22
Investment Climate in Power Sector
Increasing demand & power sector development involving
huge investment ensures business opportunities in power
sector of Bangladesh:
- IPPs
- EPC
- Manufacturers
- Suppliers
Continuity of policy even after Government change
16 bn US $ export, 10 bn US $ remittance and 10 bn US $
foreign exchange reserve indicates foreign exchange
payment capability
23
Conclusion
Government is committed to realize it’s ‘Vision’
Government is committed to ensure transparency in the procurement
process
Government is committed for timely implementation of planned projects
Private Sector will play a key role to meet the challenge of huge
amount of financing requirement
Continuous efficiency improvement ensuring good governance is key
for sustainable development
Concerted efforts from all stakeholders (including developers,
investors, EPC, contractors, suppliers) can ensure the planned power
sector development
Balanced power sector development is key for affordable and quality
power supply to the people of Bangladesh
24
25