Transcript Houston Emission Projections

How meeting the 2007
Standard & Reducing
Variable Emissions will Help
Attain the 2010 8-Hour
Standard?
Guy Donaldson
EPA
What Will We Cover?
• A little Background on Air Quality Standards
and State Implementation Plans.
• What are the 8-hour requirements
• What are the Requirements for Houston.
• What progress has been made so far?
• Where do we go from here?
What is a National Ambient Air
Quality Standard?
A standard set by EPA protect public
health or welfare.
Required by the Clean Air Act
Supposed to be reviewed every 5 years.
EPA has set Standards for 6 criteria
pollutants
Criteria Pollutants
 EPA has set Standards for 6 criteria
pollutants:
~ ground-level ozone (smog)*
~ particulate matter
~ lead
~ nitrogen dioxide
~ sulfur dioxide
~ carbon monoxide
*Only one not met in the Houston Area
Health Effects of Ozone
 When inhaled at harmful levels, ozone can:
~ pose health problems for children, asthmatics, the
elderly and even healthy adults;
~ cause acute respiratory problems;
~ aggravate asthma, emphysema and bronchitis;
~ lead to increased hospital admissions and
emergency room visits; and
~ impair the body’s immune system defenses.
Air Quality Management Process
Emergency
Episode
Air Quality
Monitoring
Legal Authority
Control Strategy
Demonstration
Resources
State
Source Surveillance
Implementation
Emission Limiting
Rules and Regs
Plan
(SIP)
New Source Review
Enforcement
Permitting
Permitting
Voluntary and
Non-traditional
Measures
Mobile Measures
and Fuels
These constitute the “infrastructure” part of the SIP required Statewide
Important Point
We don’t sanction areas for poor air
quality.
We sanction areas for failure to
develop or implement plans to deal
with poor air quality.
Actual sanctions are rare.
Background New 8 hour standard:
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•
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In 1979 EPA revised its “photochemical oxidant” standard and set
a health-based national ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) for
ground-level ozone at 0.12 parts per million averaged over a 1hour time frame.
In 1997 EPA revised the ozone NAAQS to 0.08 parts per million
averaged over an 8-hour time frame.
EPA's new 8-hr standards were challenged by a number of parties
… implementation delayed until the Supreme Court upheld EPA's
authority under the Clean Air Act to revise the NAAQS.
Background … continued
•
•
•
US Supreme Court also determined that EPA’s original strategy for
implementing the 8-hour ozone NAAQS was unreasonable; left it to
EPA to develop a more appropriate scheme that did not ignore Title
I, Part D, Subpart 2 of the CAA.
Supreme Court also sent the NAAQS case back to the D.C. Circuit
Court of Appeals on several other issues.
In March 2002, the DC Circuit Court rejected all remaining
challenges to the new 8-hour ground-level ozone NAAQS, paving
the way to begin implementation of the requirements.
HOUSTON/GALVESTON 8-HOUR
OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA
• 8-HOUR NONATTAINMENT
DESIGNATION
• SIGNED APRIL 15, 2004.
–
EFFECTIVE JUNE 15, 2004.
• HGA AREA COUNTIES:
(same as one-hour)
- Harris
-Waller
- Galveston
- Montgomery
- Brazoria
- Fort Bend
- Chambers
- Liberty
Classification of 8-hour Nonattainment Ozone Areas
CATEGORY/CLASSIFICATION
Severe 17 Los Angeles
Serious - Riverside Co (Coachella Valley),
San Joaquin, Sacramento, CA
Moderate
Moderate EAC Greensboro, NC
Marginal
Subpart 1 (Basic)
Subpart 1 EAC (Basic)
Status of 8-hour Ozone
Implementation Rule
• Final rule to be issued in 2 phases:
– Phase 1:
• Classifications, transition/anti-backsliding, revocation of
1-hour std., attainment dates, attainment date
extensions, timing of emission reductions needed for
attainment
• Signature April 15
– Phase 2:
• Remainder of rule elements (e.g., RACT, RFP, attainment
demonstrations; 8-hr NSR)
• Planning for signature by the end of the year.
8-hour O3 classification approach from April 15th rule
•
•
•
Only areas violating the 8-hr NAAQS are “nonattainment”
To determine the applicable CAA Subpart --- violating areas are
compared against a 1-hour design value for the same monitor.
Cut point: > or equal to 0.121 PPM, 1-hour design value.
Requirements “carried over”
from the 1-hr ozone NAAQS
Applicable requirements for an area are the following
requirements to extent that they apply to area for area’s
classification under section 181(a)(1) of the Act for 1-hr
NAAQS:
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Reasonably available control technology (RACT)
Inspection and maintenance programs (I/M)
Major source applicability cut-offs for purposes of RACT
Rate of Progress (ROP) Plans
Stage II vapor recovery
Clean fuels fleet program
Clean fuels for boilers
Transportation Control Measures ... section 182(e)(4) of CAA
Enhanced monitoring
Vehicle miles traveled provisions of sec. 182(d)(1)
NOx requirements under sec. 182(f)
How will EPA treat attainment
dates?
• Attainment must be “as expeditious as
practicable but no later than . . . “
– Subpart 2 -- from effective date of
designation/classification
marginal – 3 years (2007)
moderate – 6 years (2010) - Houston
serious – 9 years (2013)
severe – 15 or 17 years (2019/2021)
extreme – 20 years (2024)
Key Points For Houston
• Will have to implement nondiscretionary measures.
• Can change discretionary measures if:
– Still will attain one-hour by 2007
– Continue progress toward 8 hour.
• Will have to provide 8 hour attainment
plan by 2007.
• Attain by 2010
What does ozone air quality look like in some of the
nonattainment areas???
Estimated
Houston Background
• EPA approved SIP in 2001
– Demonstrated attainment of 1 hour by 2007
• EPA’s approval upheld in Court
• Plan called for a reviews in 2002 and 2004.
• 2002 review relaxed NOx controls increased
VOC controls.
• 2004 review proposed to be adopted
December 2004 continues shift to HRVOC
controls
Houston SIP Measures
Federal Measures
Texas Emission Reduction
Program (SB-5)
Approx 90% Industrial Controls
(proposed to be approx. 80%)
Airport Ground Service
electrification
Enhanced Tailpipe Testing
California Large Spark Stds
Low Emission Diesel Fuel
Voluntary Measures
(Tug/Tow MOA, Bolivar
Ferry, Train MOA)
Controls on Highly Reactive VOCs
We can expect more progress
• Industry NOx caps continue to decline
annually from 2005-2007
• TERP funding through 2007.
• Controls on Highly Reactive VOCs
• Phase In of Federal Measures
What Comes Next?
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•
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TCEQ submits midcourse review
8 hour attainment SIP due 2007
Attainment expected 2010
Control will need to implemented no
later than 2009
Houston’s ozone problem
• Daily Emissions from Cars,
Trucks,construction equipment, etc.
• Routine Emissions from industry
• Industrial Emission Events (upsets)
• Control Strategy will need to continue to
address all three elements
Future Issues
• Continued uncertainty with the emissions.
– Planned improved monitoring will help
– Still more source monitoring needed?
• What role do variations in VOC emissions
play.
• Decision on future control direction
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–
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More NOx
More HRVOCs
Other Less Reactive VOCs
Some combination
• How to reduce hard to reach categories such
as Ships.