Transcript The Market Study

Annual Apartment Survey
2007
“Are We There Yet?”
Ken Danter
The Danter Company
Columbus Apartment Association
May 17, 2007
National Leaders in Real Estate Research
Outline
Demographic Trends
 Employment Trends
 Housing Starts
 Single Family Trends
 Condominium Trends
 Apartment Trends

Demographic Trends
Columbus MSA
Population and Household Trends
Columbus MSA, 1990 - 2006
Thousands
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
Population
Households
200
0
1990
2000
2006
2011
Columbus MSA Trends
Population
Households
1990
1,345,454
513,500
2000
1,540,157
610,757
194,703
97,257
14.5%
18.9%
1,707,963
677,333
167,806
66,576
10.9%
10.9%
1,862,944
741,140
154,981
63,807
9.1%
9.4%
Change 1990-2000
Percent Change 1990-2000
2006
Change 2000-2006
Percent Change 2000-2006
2011
Change 2006-2011
Percent Change 2006-2011
Distribution of Households, Columbus
MSA, 2006
Southwest,
73,141
Northwest,
175,170
Southeast,
155,211
Northeast,
290,673
Distribution of Households By Age Cohort
Columbus MSA, 2006
160,000
145,683 141,994
140,000
128,962
112,662
120,000
100,581
100,000
80,000
60,000
47,178
40,000
20,000
0
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
65+
Household Change by Age of Householder
Columbus MSA, 1990 to 2006
100.0%
90.0%
84.8%
80.0%
70.0%
56.7%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
27.8%
30.0%
20.0%
23.8%
17.6%
10.0%
1.1%
0.0%
15 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65+
Change in Householders Age 25 to 34
Selected Nearby MSAs, 1990 to 2006
5.0%
1.1%
0.0%
Columbus
Cleveland
Cincinnati
-5.0%
-10.0%
-11.7%
-15.0%
-20.0%
-25.0%
-26.0%
-30.0%
Indianapolis
-2.2%
Employment Trends
Columbus MSA
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
Thousands
COLUMBUS MSA TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
1969 - 2006
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA
1970 - 2005
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1970
1973
1976
1979 1982
1985
1988 1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
COLUMBUS, OHIO
1970 - 2000
400,000
1970
1980
1990
2000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
Government
Services
F.I.R.E.
Retail
Wholesale
Trans. & P.U.
Manufacturing
Construction
0
Ag. & Mining
50,000
PRIMARY VS. SECONDARY EMPLOYMENT COLUMBUS,
OHIO MSA
70.0%
62.3%
59.8%
60.0%
55.7%
50.0%
44.3%
40.2%
40.0%
37.7%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1980
1990
PRIMARY
SECONDARY
2000
PRIMARY VS. SECONDARY EMPLOYMENT
RATE OF GROWTH
1980 -2000
45.0%
39.0%
40.0%
35.0%
32.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
18.5%
17.6%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1980-1990
Primary
1990-2000
Secondary
Building Permit Trends
Columbus MSA
HOUSING STARTS
TOTAL BUILDING PERMITS
COLUMBUS MSA - 1990-2006
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
COLUMBUS MSA HOUSING PERMITS BY TYPE
1990-2006
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
SINGLE FAMILY
MULTI-FAMILY
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
20,000
15,000
10,000
BUILDING
PERMITS
5,000
BUILDING
PERMITS
LESS
HOUSEHOLD
GROWTH
SURPLUS
0
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
-5,000
Single-Family Trends
Columbus MSA
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSINGS
COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA
1997 - 2006
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
SUSTAINABLE
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSINGS UNDER $150,000
COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA
1997 - 2006
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SINGLE FAMILY CLOSINGS $150,000 TO $199,999
COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA
1997 - 2006
3,000
2,500
SUSTAINABLE
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SINGLE FAMILY BUILDING PERMITS
COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA
1988 - 2006
12,000
STARTS
STARTS MINUS DEMAND
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
(2,000)
05
06
20
20
04
20
02
03
20
20
01
20
00
20
99
19
98
19
96
97
19
19
95
19
94
19
92
93
19
19
91
19
89
90
19
19
19
88
-
Condominium Trends
Columbus MSA
Columbus MSA Condominium Closings
3,500
2,896
3,000
2,712
2,500
2,319
2,056
2,034
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2006 Condominium Closings By Segment
1,200
1,030
1,000
800
586
600
400
200
239
200
0
First-time buyers
Empty-nesters
Luxury
Market Segment
Other
Condominium Closings By Segment Trends
First-time buyers
1,600
1,400
1,489
1,286
1,342
1,242
1,200
1,030
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Apartment Trends
Columbus, Ohio
Columbus, Ohio
Vacancy Rate Trends 2000 - 2007
14.0%
12.6%
11.6%
12.0%
10.4%
10.0%
Vacancy Rate
8.8%
8.7%
8.0%
8.0%
6.6%
6.8%
2000
2001
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
2007
Columbus, Ohio
Vacancy Rate By
Unit Type - 2007
10.0%
9.4%
8.7%
9.0%
8.0%
8.0%
7.3%
Vacancy Rate
7.0%
6.1%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2.9%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Studio
One-Bedroom Two-Bedroom
ThreeBedroom
Unit Type
Four-Bedroom
Overall
Columbus, Ohio
Vacancy Rate By
Quadrant - 2007
Northwest
Northeast
Southeast
5.7%
6.1%
10.1%
Southwest
Central City
15.2%
7.8%
Columbus, Ohio
Median Rent Trends 2000 - 2007
One-Bedroom
Two-Bedroom
2007
$513
$625
2006
$499
$619
2005
$497
$620
2004
$496
$621
2003
$495
$620
2002
$495
$620
2001
$480
$596
2000
$470
$585
Avg. Annual Increase
2000 – 2007
2006 – 2007
1.3%
2.8%
1.0%
1.0%
Columbus, Ohio
Median Rent By Quadrant - 2007
Northwest
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Central City
Overall
One-Bedroom
$614
Two-Bedroom
$736
$525
$443
$499
$628
$578
$594
$415
$513
$590
$625
The Future
Single family entry level construction to be
below sustainable levels for 3 to 5 years
 Continued conversions will reduce number of
apartments in the market (and the same
number of renters)
 Decreasing vacancies to stabilize at 6% to 7%
over the next two years
 Rent increases of 1% to 1.5% per year
 Declining concessions

For a Copy of Today’s Presentation

Go to www.danter.com and look for
Columbus Apartment Association
Presentation – May 17, 2007