Transcript IFAC presentation

AIM/Trend Model
Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on
Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia Pacific Region
October 24, 2002
Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi
1
Objectives
To prospect the situation of economy, energy and
environment in Asia-Pacific region
• to cover as wide a range of countries in Asia-Pacific
region (42 countries)
• the target year is 2032 (= Johannesburg summit + 30)
• to use simple method and develop several scenarios
2
Target Countries
Detailed data model (Model A)
C ode
AUS
BGD
CHN
ID N
IN D
IR N
JP N
KA Z
KG Z
KO R
LK A
MMR
M YS
NPL
N ZL
PAK
PHL
PRK
SG P
TH A
TJK
TK M
TW N
U ZB
VNM
C ountry
G roup
A ustralia
ANZ
B angladesh
SA
C hina
EA
Indonesia
S EA
India
SA
Iran
SA
Japan
EA
K azakhstan
CA
K yrgyz R epublic C A
K orea,R ep
EA
S riLanka
SA
M yanm ar
S EA
M alaysia
S EA
N epal
SA
N ew Zealand
ANZ
P akistan
SA
P hilippines
S EA
K orea,D em
EA
S ingapore
S EA
Thailand
S EA
Tajikistan
CA
Turkm enistan
CA
Taiw an
EA
U zbekistan
CA
V ietnam
S EA
Simple data model (Model B)
C ode
A FG
BRN
B TN
FJI
KH M
K IR
LA O
M DV
M NG
NRU
P LW
PNG
P YF
S LB
TO N
VUT
W SM
C ountry
G roup
A fghanistan
SA
B runei
S EA
B hutan
SA
Fiji
SP
C am bodia
S EA
K iribati
SP
Lao
S EA
M aldives
SA
M ongolia
EA
N auru
SP
P alau
SP
P apua N ew G uinea
SP
French P olynesia
SP
S olom on Islands
SP
Tonga
SP
V anuatu
SP
S am oa
SP
C ode
G roup
S A South A sia
SEA Southeast A sia
EA N orthw est P acific and East A sia
C A C etralA sia
3
A N Z A ustralia A nd N ew Zealand
S P South P acific
Target Period
2032: Rio summit (1992) + 40
Johannesburg summit (2002) + 30
To show “Historical data” + “Projection results”
800
400
0
1970
1990
2010
Year
2030
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1970
6
5
GDP per capita
(1000US$/cap)
1,200
GDP (Bill.US$)
Population (Million)
1,600
4
3
2
1
Year
1990 2010
GDP
0
2030
GDPCPT
4
Target Indices
(1) Population: population, rate of urbanization
(2) Economy: GDP (growth rate, per capita), GDP share (agriculture, industry,
service, PFC (private final consumption), car holders
(3) Energy: primary energy supply by fuel, final energy demand by fuel and sector,
energy plant, economic intensity, carbon intensity
(4) Environment: GHG (CO2, SOx, NOx, CH4, N2O, CO) emissions, wastes
(5) Water: withdrawal, consumption (agriculture, industry, domestic),
population in water stress*
(6) Food and Agriculture*: average daily consumption, vegetable food
consumption, animal food consumption, fraction of meat from feedlots, fish
production, crop production, feed production, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
(7) Land use*: crop land, irrigated cropland, potential cultivable land, mature
forest, growing forest, pasture, protected, other land
(8) Human Health*: SPM (PM10, PM2.5)
(9) Biodiversity*: species, degree of threat to biological diversity, area of habitat
remaining
Note: sign “*” means the element under consideration.
5
Energy Supply and Demand
Population
Economy
GHGs Emissions
Driving
Forces
Water Supply and Demand
Wastes
Model Structure
6
Model Procedures
Regression analysis
GDP share (AVA, IVA, SVA)
car holders
final energy demand
energy share
Scenario Setting
GDP, population, AEEI,
non fossil fuel supply…
80%
Regression results
GDP share,
final energy demand…
-0.5724
y = 9.8494x
R2 = 0.9778
70%
AVA share of GDP [%]
Prospect
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0
500
1000
GDP/cap [1995US$/cap]
1500
2000
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Calculation Flow of Energy Supply and Demand (Model A)
AEEI
Driving Force
Population
GDP
*IVASHR
*AVASHR
*PFCSHR
CARCAP
Elasticity
IND: IVA
TPR: CAR
TPO: GDP
AGR: AVA
OTH: PFC
Final Energy Demand
IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH
Electricity Share
Heat Share
IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH
Non-fossil
Final Energy Demand:
Final Energy Demand:
fuel supply
Electricity
and
Heat
excluding
Electricity
and
Heat
Non-fossil
IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH
fuel supply IND, TPR, TPO, AGR, OTH
Generation
Fossil fuel
Fossil fuel
Distribution loss
efficiency
power plant share share
Primary Energy Supply
Input for Electricity plant,
COL, OIL, GAS, CRW
Heat plant, and CHP
NUC, HYD, GEO, NEW
IVA: Industry Value Added
AVA: Agriculture Value Added
PFC: Private Final Consumption
CARCAP: Car holders per capita
IND: Industry
TPR: Transport on road
TPO: Other transport
AGR: Agriculture
OTH: Other
COL: Coal
OIL: Oil
GAS: Gas
CRW: Combustible
and renewables
NUC: Nuclear
HYD: Hydro power
GEO: Geothermal
NEW: Wind, PV, and so on
Scenario
Regression8
Calculation (Fix)
Programming and Interface
ATPL (AIM/Trend Program Language)
• Built with VBA of Microsoft Excel
• Major commands are load, save, future parameter
setting, future projection, format and regression.
Interface
• Clickable buttons are designed to perform
simulations effectively. They are written in ATPL
and users can write or change programs for their
own purpose.
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ATPL
Example program ImpSrsTest
Open
worksheet 1
2
3
4
Import 5
series data6
7
8
A
B
Program
OpenWS
Series
ImpSrs
C
ImpSrsTest
!Import
!Import
!Table
!Table
POP
GDP
D
E
DAT
YEAR
DATA1
Data
POP_A
GDP_A
<1
<1
<1
End
Input data sheet 'DAT'
A
time series 1
data name 2 #TABLE
3
4
5
6
YEAR
POP_A
GDP_A
B
DATA1
1990
1,000
1,000
time series
C
D
1995
1,010
1,050
2000
1,020
1,120
Please see “AIMTrend-AddIn Manual.doc”
E
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Interface
Choose
“country”
Save simulation
case by clicking
the button
File Operation
Load Data
Case
India
Save data
Run the program
with your data set
Future Projection
Projection All
Write Output to
"Result" Sheet
Projection of
Energy Use
Projection of
Water Use
Please see “AIMTrend-User's Manual.doc”
11
Scenario Study
UNEP/GEO3 scenario
Market First (MK): market driven developments converge on
the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized
countries
Policy First (PO): concerted action on environment and social
issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments
Security First (SC): inequality and conflict prevail, brought
about by socio-economic and environmental stresses
Sustainability First (SU): a new development paradigm
emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability,
supported by new values and institutions
12
Sustainability First (SU)
Scenario for China
Driving forces
Basic scenario
GDP (Bill.US$)
10,000
1,200
800
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
400
0
1970
1990
0
1970
1990
Year
2010
2030
2010
Year
GDP
Regression
GDP share (%)
Population (Million)
1,600
2030
GDPCPT
Regression
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1970
AVASHR
1990 Year
IVASHR
2010
SVASHR
2030
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GDP per capita
(1000US$/cap)
Basic scenario
Energy structure
Sustainability First (SU)
Scenario for China
3,000
2,000
2,500
1,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
500
0
1970
CO2 emissions (Mt-C)
TPE ,TFE (MTOE)
Energy and CO2 emissions
0
1990
Year 2010
TPE
TFE
2030
CO2
TPE (Total Primary Energy Supply), TFE (Total Final Energy Demand)
Year
2030
2025
2030
2025
2020
2015
2005
2000
2010
Year
2020
IND
0
2015
TPR
2010
500
1,500
1,000
500
0
2005
TPO
2000
AGR
1,000
3,000
2,500
2,000
1995
OTH
1,500
Primary energy supply by
fuel (MTOE)
Energy structure of PE
2,000
1995
Final energy demand by
sector (MTOE)
Energy structure of FE
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NEW
GEO
HYD
NUC
CRW
GAS
OIL
COL
Energy related CO2 emissions
in Asia-Pacific region
8,000
CO2 emissions (Mt-C)
Historical data
7,000
Market First
6,000
Policy First
Security First
5,000
Sustainability First
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
2020
2030
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South Asia
MK: Market First
PO: Policy First
300
SC: Security First
SU: Sustainability First
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Iran
Nepal
Sri Lanka
250
Bangladesh
India
Maldives
Pakistan
Southeast Asia
200
150
MK
PO
SC
SU
MK
PO
SC
SU
MK
PO
SC
SU
MK
PO
SC
SU
50
0
Brunei Darussalam
Cambodia
Indonesia
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Viet Nam
East Asia
100
MK
PO
SC
SU
Change in energy-related CO2 emissions by 2032 relative to 2002 (%)
Energy related CO2 emissions in
sub-regions of Asia-Pacific region
-50
South Asia South East Asia
East Asia
Central Asia ANZ and South
Pacific
China
DPR Korea
Japan
Mongolia
Rep. Of Korea
Taiwan
Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Turkmenistan
ANZ and South Pacific
Australia
Fiji
Nauru
Papua New Guinea
Tonga
Samoa
New Zealand
Kiribati
Palau
French Polynesia
Vanuatu
16
Solomon Islands
Next steps
• Revised AIM/Trend model (version 2)
• Scenarios should be checked by experts in each
region
• Develop renewables, nuclear, gas supply scenario
• Add waste sector, food/biomass sector…
• Other role of AIM/Trend model:
database, display of scenario results
AIM/Trend scenarios can be used as input data for
other AIM models (AIM/CGE, AIM/Country...)
17
Contents of CD-ROM
Program
Data
Document
Model_A.xls: program for Model A
Model_B.xls : program for Model B
Summary.xls : program for data aggregation
AIM-Trend.mdb
/UserDataA: data folder for Model A
/UserDataB: data folder for Model B
/DAT: data folder for historical data and energy data
/Document: AIM/Trend documents
AIMTrend-AddIn Manual.doc
AIMTrend User’s Manual.doc
Overview of AIM-Trend Model.ppt
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How to install AIM/Trend model
• Copy all files and folders from CD-ROM into your
computer.
ex. c:\AIM-Trend
• Install “AIM Trend.xla”
– Execute Microsoft Excel
– Select [Tools]-[Add-Ins] menu option.
– Click “Browse” button and select “AIM Trend.xla” file.
ex. C:\AIM-Trend\Addins\AIM Trend.xla
• If “AIM Trend” menu bar appears, you succeed to install
AIM/Trend model !
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AIM/Trend model Exercise
1) Open “Model_A.xls” file in your AIM/Trend folder. (please enable macro)
2) Choose your country from “load data” on “GUI” sheet.
3) Move to “GPro” sheet and “Result” sheet. Check the results of your country.
4) Choose other country from “load data” on “GUI” sheet and check the results.
5) Move to “Pam” sheet. You can check the assumptions for the projection.
6) Change population data, GDP growth rate data, or AEEI (Autonomous Energy
Efficiency Improvement) data as you like.
7) Return to “GUI” sheet, and click “Pam Set All” button. “Projection of Driving Force”,
“Projection of Final Energy Demand”, and “Projection of Energy Share ” will be
done.
8) Click “Projection All”. You can see new results with your new input data on “GUI”
sheet and “Result” sheet.
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