Transcript Mineral Resources in Modern World: is there enough

Mineral Resources in Modern World:
is there enough geological
information for secure supply?
Slavko V. Šolar,
Geological Survey of Slovenia, Slovenia
Deborah Shields,
Department of Economics, Colorado State University, USA
ISSUES FOR GEOLOGISTS IN 21ST CENTURY
MITIGATION OF MAN'S INFLUENCE AND SERVING SOCIETY'S NEEDS
EFG Workshop on the 33rd International Geological Congress 2008
9 August 2008, 9:00 – 14:00, Oslo, Norway
content
• How to get involved in societal debate?
• Framework for science input
• Minerals information
• Conclusions
What is going on in minerals supply
world?
• Minerals supply – price boom
• Legacy issues
• Different stakeholders
– Industry, Government
– NGOs, Local Community
• Social License to Mine
• Industry and Government Efforts
• Common ground
Social benefits
Sustainable resource
development
Scientific excellence
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Societal goals and objectives
Challenges
Programs and activities
Societal goals and objectives drive geologic programs and activities (After
Findlay, 1997)
IUGS is aware that
”The geological sciences play a critical
role in a wide range of public policy
issues that include minimizing the
impacts of natural hazards, obtaining
necessary natural resources, and
protecting the environment. "
While scientific information is not the sole
answer to achieving sustainability in resource
management and resource consumption, science
is essential if society is going to be able to:
• secure a solid information base about how to
manage resources sustainability;
• find the means to communicate that information
credibly and apart from political agendas; and
• educate not only the public and private decision
makers, but also the general public (NCSE 2000,
p19.)
But, how can technical
experts increase the use of
scientific information in the
public debate about
sustainable mineral supply,
and in the formulation of
supply policies?
To Successfully Communicate
Science Information to Policy
Makers,
Geologists will Need to
Understand
Both
• The policy process itself, and in addition
• the paradigm of sustainable development.
Turning first to policy, they
need to understand how
policies are developed and
at what point in the
process science input will
be most accepted and
useful.
Identification of
objectives and
interests
Review and adaptation
Definition of policy
Monitoring
Codification of policy
in laws and acts
Establishment of a
regulatory framework
Example of the Classical Policy Cycle
Policy Cycle and Science Input
Social
goal &
& objectives political
and/or
political
social goals
and/or industrial
objectivesindustrial interests
interests
constant
expert's review
of
the policy cycle
(policy and
regulatory
pathes)
policy
expert's input in
establishing
laws, acts,
plans,
regulations,
requirements
monitoring
The Expert’s Role in the Policy Process
Where monitoring data
/ information /
indicators
fit in the policy cycle
The Type of Input needed
from Earth Scientists will depend on
• Where society is in the policy cycle;
• The decision context, i.e., land use, nature
conservation, public safety;
• The relevant interaction between environment
and society, i.e., anthropogenic vs. geo-genic.
Science Information for Sustainability
Technical
Experts / Scientists
Resource
Policy / Management
The
Public / Stakeholders
Politicians /
Decision makers
What Science Should Provide
 What is known;
 The certainty with which it is known;
 What is not known;
 What is suspected;
 The limits of science;
 Probable outcomes of different policy options;
 Key areas where new information is needed;
and
 Recommended mechanisms for obtaining highpriority information. (Lubchenco 1995)
Scientific Predictability is based in
part on:
• The past development;
• Present state of the world;
• Trends (as numerical curves or
philosophical theories); and
• An optimistic or skeptical vision of the
state of the world, i.e., technological world
view, on the part of the data provider
(Constanza 2000).
Uncertainty increases with complexity (Bradshaw and
Borchers, 2000)
But in reality, what government and policy
makers want from science is not always the
same as what scientists and technical
experts know, are interested in, or are
capable of or should be providing.
Earth scientist’s contributions
are limited by:
• Communication problems:
– Science language is too abstract,
– Scientist’s ignorance about the public’s values
or politics combined with perceived value
content in the science, and
– Differing attitudes about science information
between scientists and decision makers.
Information Communication:
differences in attitudes and behaviors
(Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000)
Science
Government
Probability accepted
Certainty desired
Inequality is a fact
Equality desired
Anticipatory
Time ends at next election
Flexibility
Rigidity
Problem oriented
Service oriented
Discovery oriented
Mission oriented
Failure and risk accepted
Failure and risk intolerable
Innovation prized
Innovation suspect
Replication essential for belief
Beliefs are situational
Clientele diffuse, diverse, or
not present
Clientele specific, immediate, and
insistent
But contributions are also limited
by:
• Apparent focus on science topics that are not
perceived to be relevant to today’s problems
• The very nature of scientific investigation
– The very nature of scientific investigations Socially
unacceptable degree of complexity or uncertainty
– Public discomfort with disagreements between
differing philosophical / theoretical camps within
disciplines
– Frustration with scientists continual desire for more
information
And in fact, there is a widening
sea of data, and in comparison a
desert of information.
Geoscientists can help provide
mineral information.
Mineral Information consists of:
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Information on mining / processing /metallurgical
operations (technical)
Economic data (production, reserves & resources,
trade, down-stream use/consumption)
Mineral policy, plans, programs & regulation
information (permitting, taxation, standardization,
labor, environment),
Environmental information (environmental impact,
resource efficiency),
Social mining information (H&S, labor issues,
education, communication, partnership, local
community, certification, SME & small scale mining,
NGOs)
RTD & innovation information (science & applied
projects)
Challenges in
Providing Useful and Appropriate Input
Earth Scientists need to develop better:
• scientific bases for discussion of adequacy of
mineral resources;
• data on factors involved in mineral supply that
should be in public-policy analysis and decision
making;
• ways to communicate to policymakers and the
public the dynamic nature of mineral supply, thus
putting the prospect of “running out” in the proper
context; and
• methods to incorporate recycling and reuse into
concept of sustainability.
Elements of Minerals Information
future :
• Support decision making and facilitate policy
implementation (competitiveness, resource efficiency,
or…) on EU, MS or industry with regard to raw materials
supply (mineral resource related issues).
• Integrate existing knowledge & capacity and to
coordinate activities
• Structure starts with small team / project as start for
potential as for stand alone operation
• Outcomes: Data /Statistics/Information/ Indicators Bulletin / Reports / Studies
In General Mineral Information
would:
• Be capable to provide mineral information
for the governmental and international
institutions, industry and members states,
• In deepen existing mineral intelligence on
national and international level, and
• Collect and disseminate accurate and
adequate mineral information for multi
purposes: statistics, resource information,
environmental protection, etc.
Specifically MI would :
• Monitor market conditions,
• Provide information on mineral resources,
reserves, production, and areas of
mineralization,
• Support integrated land use planning,
• Forecast potential impacts of proposed
raw materials, economic and
environmental policies, and
• Inform strategic analyses.
Areas of activities:
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Available data and expertise,
Analytical expertise / studies,
Data interpretation,
Improved coordination among different
data suppliers and data consumers.
Cooperation and Data
Integration among:
• Academia,
• Mining and geological institutions
• Agencies on national level (Statistics, Customs,
Environmental Agency),
• Industry level (Chamber of commerce, private
institutions), and
• Minerals related (law, administrative,
environmental, economic, social institutions that
also deal with mineral resources /GMES,
INSPIRE, ../).
Available Data
• Raw Data:
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Production, Reserves and resources,
Material flow analysis,
Trade,
Recycling,
Consumption,
Mineral potential in Europe and the rest of the world,
Closed, abandoned mines / mining areas.
• Aggregated Data and Indicators
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Economic, environmental and social,
EUROSTAT – environmental, national satellite accounts,
TSSNR,
EU SDI indicators of mining sector.
SOURCES OF MINERALS INFORMATION
MINERALS, CRITICAL MINERALS, AND THE U.S. ECONOMY
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS, Washington, D.C. (www.nap.edu)
Available Analytical Expertise /
Studies
• Terminology – Semantics,
• Improved reporting (reporting culture can
be improved by demonstrating added
value, engaging CEOs, proving that
confidentiality is recognized),
• Information technology – website
collecting and sharing,
• Sharing guidelines and best practices, and
also telling failures.
Examples of Data Interpretation
• Mineral supply and material requirements,
• Trade pattern internally and with rest of
world,
• Security of supplies issues,
• Strategic and critical minerals.
Minerals Information
Outcomes/Products:
• Research results
• Network of experts with enhanced
coordination, communication and
collaboration,
• Minerals Yearbook,
• Communication documents on minerals
issues
One role that technical
experts can play is to use
minerals information to
create and report indicators
that provide information
about the degree to which
the (sustainability) goals
embodied in policy are
being achieved.
Assessing Progress towards
Sustainable Development
GOAL
PRINCIPLES
CRITERIA
I N D I CATO R S
Approaches to selecting indicator sets
• Indicator set limited to those for which
data exist,
• Indicator set is chosen without regard to
current data availability,
• Full information on stakeholders
objectives.
Information Pyramid
Scientists can only analyze and
aggregate data to which they have
access, which may be limited by:
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Availability (physical existence),
Comprehensiveness (intellectual accessibility),
Diffusion (perceived access) and
Potential for feedback (improving total
accessibility over time) (Bauler T., Heqo W.
2000)
Concluding Remark
Geologists can make significant
contributions to the better world based on
sustainable development policies. But to
do so they will have to demonstrate the
importance, soundness, and relevance of
their field and expertise to the public and
to decision makers.
.. and where can we start?
At promoting the
Contribution of the
Minerals Professional
Community to
Sustainable Development
MILOS Statement
2003
Conclusions
• Mineral resources are important to the
economic and social development of many
countries and they are essential for
modern living and sustainable future.
• Principles, grouped into general, social
and environmental subgroups, would
assist scientists and many others in
thinking of big picture of minerals supply.
Science has to be aware
that for decision making
“the answer” does not exist.
/
There is never enough
information if you don’t
want to decide.