Transcript Slide 1

2012 Regional Economic Outlook
NAPM Spokane Chapter
Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D.
College of Business and Public Administration
Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis
[email protected]
509-359-6517
Current Policy Discourse in D.C. and Europe
2011 Major Indicator Summary
Indicator
Performance
2011 F
Under 1%
1% to 1.5%
Spokane+Kootenai Unemployment Rates
Flat (> 9%)
> 8%
Spokane+Kootenai Employment Growth
Near 0%
1.5%
Spokane+Kootenai Real Per Capita Personal
Income Growth (Based on state data for 1Q and
2Q 2011)
Under 1%
0.5%
Spokane County Taxable Sales Growth
Under 1%
0%
Regional Population Growth
Spokane+Kootenai Existing Home Price Growth
-7% to -12% -2% to -4%
Spokane+Kootenai Initial Unemployment
Claims
Lower
Lower
Spokane+Kootenai Residential Units Permitted
Higher
Flat
Regional Unemployment Rates, 2009-2011
Will stay above 8% in 2012
with growing youth
unemployment problem.
Employment Growth > Population Growth
Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
Spokane+Kootenai Initial Unemployment
Claims, 2007-2011
-15%
Source: LMEA, Alivia Body (ID ESD), and author’s calculations.
-14%
Spokane+Kootenai Non-Farm Employment
Growth, 2007-2011
3%
No significant job
growth since 2007.
2%
2%
1%
1%
F
SPK/
KOOT
High
1.6%
Point
0.5%
Low
-0.6%
1%
1%
Annual Growth
0%
0%
-1%
2007
-1%
2008
2009
-1%
2010
Est. 2011
-2%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-4%
-5%
-5%
-6%
U.S.
Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
Spokane+Kootenai
SA Spokane+Kootenai Non-Farm Employment
Levels Since June 2009
264
262
Employment Level
260
258
256
254
252
Source: BLS and author’s calculations.
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Feb-11
Dec-10
Oct-10
Aug-10
Jun-10
Apr-10
Feb-10
Dec-09
Oct-09
Aug-09
Jun-09
250
Spokane+Kootenai Real Per Capita Personal
Income Growth, 2007-2011
No significant income
growth since 2007.
Source: BEA and author’s calculations.
F
SPK/
KOOT
High
2.5%
Point
0.5%
Low
-1.5%
Spokane+Kootenai Nominal Existing Home
Price Growth, 2007-2011
Still too much
inventory on the
market or in the
back ground as “real
estate acquired.”
Source: FHFA and author’s calculations.
F
SPK
KOOT
High
-2%
6%
Point
-10%
-8%
Low
-18%
-22%
WA and U.S. “Real Estate Acquired” as a Share of
Total Assets, 2000-2011
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
Share of Total Assets
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
WA
Source: FDIC and author’s calculations.
U.S.
Spokane+Kootenai Residential Units
Permitted, 2006-2011
+20%
+15%
Source: U.S. Census and author’s calculations.
Spokane Taxable Sales Growth, 2007-2011
Surge in 2Q activity:
2Q 2010-2Q 2011, 50%
of increase due to
construction and
motor vehicles & parts.
Source: WA DOR and author’s calculations.
F
City
ROC
High
5%
5%
Point
0%
0%
Low
-5%
-5%
Good News for the Region
Thank You