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Tradeoff Analysis System: Policy Decision Support for Agriculture To make informed decisions, public and private decision makers need accurate information about the economic and environmental consequences of agricultural systems. Tradeoff Analysis is a process designed to link decision makers to teams of scientists with tools that can provide this information. Tradeoff analysis process •Public stakeholders •Policy makers •Scientists Research priority setting •Identify sustainability criteria •Formulate hypotheses as potential tradeoffs Project design & implementation •Identify disciplines for research project •Identify models and data needs define units of analysis Inform stakeholders •Collect data and implement disciplinary research The Tradeoff Analysis Model© is a GIS-based system designed to integrate disciplinary data and models to implement the Tradeoff Analysis approach. A modular approach to data and model integration Leachp Weather GIS GIS Leachp DSSAT DSSAT User shell Economic Economic models models DBMS DBMS Weather Survey Survey Policy Survey Most bio-economic data and models are application-specific and therefore are of limited usefulness to the scientific community. Tradeoff Curves: Sustainability Indicators, incentives and Scenarios Conservation Carbon rate • 2 “Additionality” Conventional • 1 Econ Returns Concepts: Baseline, additionality, and permanence Tradeoff curves A useful way to communicate properties of complex agricultural systems: • Economic principle of opportunity cost • Intuitive appeal • Easy-to-understand (2-d) • Quantifies concept of sustainability • Represents risk: joint distributions of outcomes – Health risk thresholds – Climate vulnerability Examples • Economic – environment – health tradeoffs associated with pesticide use (Ecuador study, see www.tradeoffs.montana.edu) • Sustainability of agriculture on steeply sloped hillsides (hydric and tillage erosion, terracing, carbon). • Carbon sequestration as a mechanism to finance adoption of sustainable production systems and institutions. Carbon Rate vs Net Returns (Tradeoff Variable = Peanut Price) 0.55 0.5 0.45 0.4 FERT FERT + RESIDUE SEQ SEQ FERT SEQ FERT + RESIDUE 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 -0.15 -0.2 -0.25 -0.3 -0.35 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 NET RETURNS 140,000 160,000 System dynamics: productivity effects of carbon accumulation emerge over time C(T1) Carbon rate (C) C(T2) 2 1 V(T1) Net return () 1 2 MONDAY AM GROUPS Each Group Selects Moderator & Rapporteur GROUP 1 GROUP2 GROUP3 Modou Sene Mamadou Khouma Ibrahima Diedhiou Andre Meerkerk Sibiry Traore Jesse Naab Alioune Dieng Adrien Mankor Astou Sene Ibrahima Hathie Abdou Thiam Mouhamadou Sy Magatte Ba Luke Abatania Ibrahima Diop Gaye John Antle Bocar Diagana Jetse Stoorvogel Gibson Guvheya Boris Bravo-Ureta Tim Williams