Transcript LSSG Black Belt Training

LSSG Green Belt
Training
Analyze: What are the Key Drivers for
Breakthrough Performance?
1
Qualitative vs. Quantitative Analysis
Qualitative:
Goal - Identify and prioritize critical X’s
Tools - Pareto Charts, C&E matrix/fishbone diagram,
Brainstorming, Detailed As-Is process, Non-value add
analysis, Benchmarking, FMEA
Quantitative:
Goal – Find Root Causes and Validate critical Xs.
Tools - Hypothesis Testing Concepts, Multi-Vari Studies,
Simple and Multiple Regression, ANOVA
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Process Analysis
Process

Any part of an organization that takes inputs
and transforms them into outputs repeatedly
Process Analysis

The ability to diagram a process, identify its
flow, potential bottlenecks, and determine
its capacity
Process Flowchart

The use of a diagram to present the major
elements of a process.
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Example of a Process Flowchart
Current Situation
Exit
Bank
Exit
Bank
No
Start
Enter
Bank?
Neither
Yes
Acceptable
Queue
Length ?
Yes
Teller
Deposit
Ticket
Prepared?
Yes
Go Directly
To Teller Line
Teller
Queue
Too
Slow?
No
Explain
Transaction
To Teller
Pass Checks
And Deposit Slip
To Teller
Watch Teller
Verify Deposit
Amount
No
ATM
Add Check
Amounts and
Prepare Deposit
Ticket
Deposit
Envelope
Prepared?
Receive
Receipt
Yes
Go Directly
To ATM Line
ATM
Queue
No
Insert
ATM
Card
Too
Slow?
No
Add Check
Amounts and
Prepare Deposit
Envelope
Exit
Bank
Enter
PIN
Follow
On-screen
Instructions
Feed
Envelope
Into ATM
Yes
Exit
Bank
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Process Analysis Definitions
Cycle Time - The average time between successive completions of
units
Throughput Time - The total time it takes for a unit to move through
the process from beginning to completion
Throughput Rate - The inverse of cycle time, expressed as number
of units per time period
Capacity - The measure of output per unit of time when system is
busy
Utilization - The ratio of the time that a resource is actually active
relative to the time that it is available for use
Continuous Flow - A job performed in a steady flow with no wasted
motion, no interruptions, and no waiting
Work-In-Process - Any type of unfinished work waiting to be
performed at a later time
Bottleneck - The slowest operation in the process; defines cycle
time and capacity of the process
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Process Analysis for
Processes without Buffers
A
B
20 min
30 min
Batch1:
0-20
20-50
Batch2:
20-40
50-80
30
A – Blocked for 10 min
30
Batch3:
50-70
80-110
B – Starved for 20 min
A – Blocked for 10 min
What is the cycle time of this process?
What is the throughput time of this process?
What is the throughput rate of this process?
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Process Analysis for
Processes without Buffers
A
B
20 min
30 min
Batch1:
0-20
20-50
Batch2:
20-40
50-80
30
A – Blocked for 10 min
30
Batch3:
50-70
80-110
B
A
30 min
20 min
Batch1:
0-30
30-50
Batch2:
30-60
60-80
30
60-90
90-110
A – Blocked for 10 min
A – Starved for 30 min
A – Starved for 10 min
30
Batch3:
B – Starved for 20 min
A – Starved for 10 min
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Little’s Law
Throughput Time
Stage 1
Buffer
Stage 2
Throughput time in WIP
Lead Time (throughp ut time in WIP inventory) =
Average WIP
Throughput Rate
How to reduce Lead (Throughput) Time?
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Process Analysis with Buffers
Example of Using Little’s Law
Bake 100 meat loaves
Baking time 60 minutes
Bake 100 meat loaves
Baking time 60 minutes
CT= 30 min
Individual Pack 100 meat loaves
48 min
CT= 48 min
WIP Throughput Time =
Avg WIP
637.5
=
= 5.1 hours
Throughput Rate 125
Shift Hour
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Baking Packing
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
Sum =
Average =
WIP
75
150
225
300
375
450
525
600
675
750
825
900
975
1050
1125
1200
1075
950
825
700
575
450
325
200
15300
637.50
Total Throughput Time = Bake Time + Pack Time + WIP Time = 0.5  0.8  5.1 = 6.4 hours
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FMEA Template
Risk Priority Number (RPN) = Occurrence * Severity * Detection
Process/Product Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
Process Step Failure Mode Failure Effects
May be process step, general What is the potential
activity, functional area, or
failure or undesirable
other rational grouping
outcome for this area?
If the failure mode occurs,
what will the effect be?
Causes
S
E
V
What is/are the cause/s
of the failure?
use max
SEV
Controls
O
C
C
What controls are in place to
prevent the cause from occuring
or to detect that the cause has
occurred?
D
E
T
R
P
N
Action
Timing
What specific actions are
When is completion of
Who will be accountable for
required to improve the RPN
the action required or
implementing the change
number
planned
P
S
E
V
P
O
C
C
P
D
E
T
P
R
P
N
0
0
0
0
Severity – How serious is the
0
failure to the process; to business
0
results? (1 = minor, 2-3
=
annoyance, 9-10 = very
high/most
0
severe)
0
Occurrence = Frequency of
failure mode (1 = remote, 9 =
inevitable, 10 = certain)
Resp
0
0
0
0
Detection = Likelihood that a defect will
be detected by controls before the next
(subsequent) process (1-2 = very high, 9
= very low, 10 = absolutely cannot
detect)
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Benchmarking
Phase 1
Internal
Benchmarking
Standardize
internal best
practices
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 4
Reverse
Engineering
Similar
Industry
Process
Benchmarking
Different
Strategic
Industry
Benchmarking
Process
Benchmarking
Study/
Incorporate
best features
of competitive
products
Study/
Incorporate
best process
practices
Study/
Incorporate
applicable
best process
practices
Phase 5
Study other
approaches
to strategy
development
Leverage core
competencies
and trends
Phase 6
International
Benchmarking
Identify
global
strategies,
customers,
new partners,
products, and
processes
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Problem Solving through Appreciative
Inquiry
Appreciative Inquiry extends the first step of the
benchmarking process by focusing on the “best of what is”
Problem Solving
Appreciative Inquiry
Felt Need” Identification of
Problem
Appreciating and Valuing the
Best of “What Is”
Analysis of Causes
Envisioning “What Might Be”
Possible Solutions, Action plans
Dialoguing “What Should Be”
Basic Assumption: An
Organization is a Problem to
be Solved
Basic Assumption: An
Organization is Mystery to be
Embraced
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Source: David Cooperrider et all, Appreciative Inquiry
Statistics Roadmap for Analyze
(Black Belt Topics)
DMAIC
Find out what is causing the
problem
ANALYZE
VALIDATE ROOT CAUSES
HYPOTHESIS TESTS
Measured
Data,
E.g. time,
length and
weight
CONTINOUS DATA
ID and Confirm with Data
Is there really a relationship?
What to compare? Amount of
risk? Calculation and
comparison to test statistics
DISCRETE DATA
Compare
Proportions
Count Data Etc…
Definitions: www.asq.org/sixsigma/terms/a.html
13
Hypothesis Testing Roadmap
Hypothesis Testing
Continuous
Normal
Attribute
Non-Normal
Means
Variance
Medians
Variance
Z-tests
c2
Correlation
Levene’s
t-tests
F-test
Sign Test
ANOVA
Bartlett’s
Wilcoxon
Correlation
KruskalWallis
Regression
Mood’s
c2 Contingency
Tables
Correlation
Same tests as
Non-Normal
Medians
Friedman’s
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Testing of Means - Roadmap
Comparing Means
1 Factor
1 Sample
s known
s not
known
1-sample
Z-test
1-sample
t-test
2 Samples
Independent
paired
2-sample
t-test
Paired
t-test
2 Factors
3 or more
Factors
Two way
ANOVA
ANOVA
GLM
2 or more
samples
One way
ANOVA
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Testing of Variation - Roadmap
Comparing Variances
1 Sample
2 Sample
1 Variance
Test
2 Variance
Test
Descriptive
Statistics
F- test
Levene’s
Test
More Than 2 Samples
Test for Equal
Variance
Bartlett’s
Test
Levene’s
Test
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Testing of Proportions - Roadmap
Comparing Proportions
1 Sample
2 Sample
More than 2 samples
1 Proportion
Z Test
2 Proportion
Z Test
Chi-Square
Test
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Non-Parametric Testing Roadmap
Non-Parametric Tests
Binominal
(2 Levels)
Independent
Dependent
MannWhitney U
(t-test analog)
Wilcoxon/
Sign (Paired
t-test analog)
3 or more
Levels
Independent
Dependent
Kruskal-Wallis
H /Mood’s
Median Test
(One-way
ANOVA
analog)
Friedman
Two-way
ANOVA
(Repeated
measure
ANOVA)
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