Transcript Folie 1 - Astana Forum

Early Detection of Innovation and Technology Trends
in Times of Ongoing Modernisation and Restructuring
Lecture, given on Round Table
“Development of the G-Global – as an Intersectoral Platform of
World Anti-crises Initiatives”
Astana, 24 May 2013
Presented by
Prof. Dr. Friedhelm Gehrmann
Steinbeis University Berlin
Institute „Global Consulting and Government“
STEINBEIS CONGLOMERATE
Steinbeis
Foundation
Steinbeis
Technology Transfer
Steinbeis
University Berlin
S t e i n b e i s : Business Companies
6,500 experts – thereof 800 Professors – 49 countries
TransferCenters
Research &
Development
Centers
Consulting
Centers
Transfer
Institutes of
University
Shareholding
Worldwide ALUMNI Network : 110,000 Managers + 21,000 enterprises + 17,000 Students
Foundation of a „Steinbeis Technology Transfer Center“ in Astana with Kazakh partner has started in March 2013
World’s Roadmap from “Old Magic Square” to “New Magic Square”
FORMER TIMES
1 Economic growth
FUTURE TIMES
1 Sustainable economic growth
2 Full employment
4 Balance in foreign trade
2 Step-by-step mining of domestic
resources
3 Environmental- and climate-friendly
management
4 Social-oriented and sustainable strategy
Dominance : ECONOMICS
Dominance : SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENT
3 No inflation
Lessons learned in the past 50 years :
THE NON-OBSERVANCE OF THE “SOCIAL ASPECT” OF INNOVATION AND
TECHNOLOGY LEADS TO …… >> civil disturbances + troubles + turbulances
Message : >> Start a SOCIAL-oriented & sustainable Innovation Policy !!!
From Business Cycle Analysis to “Early Detection of Technology-Trends”
ECONOMY:
Since 150 years economists elaborate business cycle analysis
>>>
as “early information system”
>>>
as “early warning system” !
TECHNOLOGY:
Technology experts must analyse “leap-frogging”
>> early information system of technological leaps (change)
Explanation of the term “Leap-Frogging” :
>>> = “technology leap” = a “jump” = a “hop” = a “step”,
= a “level” of the company’s implemented technology
“Leap-frogging” increases company’s competitiveness and
its cost-efficiency and reduces the investment costs
SIMPLE EXAMPLE OF TECHNOLOGY LEAPS IN MEDICINE
2
3
4
1895
1972
1978
1990
X-ray Equipment
ComputerThomography (CT)
Magnet Resonance
Thomography (MRT)
Proton Radiation
Tomography (PRT)
Radiation exposure !
Radiation exposure !
No radiation exposure !
No radiation exposure
Fat tissue / bones
Organs
Structure and funktions
Marking of organs
Technology level
1
of organs
Bio-chemical presentation of images
SLIGHTLY SOPHISTICATED EXAMPLE OF TECHNOLOGY-LEAP IN PETRO- INDUSTRY
Case Study of a German Company : Number of Laboratory Assistants (Lab-Ass.)
2
3
4
1950 - 1980
1981 - 1994
1995 - 2012
2013 +
400 Lab. Assistants
150 Lab. Assistants
3 Mechatronics
+ 1 Engineer
0,5 Operator
Remote Experiments
Technical Leap
1
Decentralised
Centralised Laboratories
Process Control
Fully automated analysis
Laboratories
60 % hand operated
Technology
Monitoring
5% hand operated
Documentation
Online Analysis
Trouble-shooting and
100% hand operated
repair
Quality management
HIGH SOPHISTICATED EXAMPLES OF LEAPS IN NANOTECHNOLOGY
Medicine – Construction – Machine – IT/ ICT
A permanent and professional observation of technology leaps will result in
company’s advantage in competition between 2 and 5 % of investment costs !!!!
Need for “Technology Scouting”
MESSAGES TO DECION-MAKERS referring
“Early Detection of Innovation- and Technology-Trends”
1
A systematic “early detection of Innovation- and Technology-Trends” has
the same priority and urgency as the well-known “early detection
of trends in economics”
2
Develop and implement steering tools for an innovation & technology policy
3
Start rapidly empirical studies in early detection of innovation
and technology leaps
4
Identify the intended and the unintended consequences of innovation and
technology leaps (important : >> identification of negative consequences !!)
5
Initiate the change from a predominantly “economic-oriented”
to a “social-oriented” innovation and technology policy
6
Qualify Kazakh “technology scouts”…
….. and start a systematic “Leap-Frogging-Management”
STEINBEIS PHILOSOPHY TO BE TRANSFERRED . . .
Early detection of
Technology Trends
Start NOW !
Scale Fast !
Qualify First !
Start Small !
Replace the „economicoriented“ with the „socialoriented“ technology policy
Think Big !
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION !
Further contacts :
Prof. Dr. Friedhelm Gehrmann
Steinbeis University Berlin
“Global Consulting and Government”
Fon : +49 171 – 27 27 824
[email protected]