Transcript Presentation to test out new CRESR logo

Housing and NDCs
Key Findings from Phase 1 of
the National Evaluation
Ian Cole
CRESR
Sheffield Hallam University
Outline of presentation







The NDC programme
Housing and the NDC paradigm...
the impact of housing interventions
neighbourhood renewal in a differentiated
housing market
the crucial role of household mobility
outstanding challenges for NDC housing
strategies..
..and for the next phase of the evaluation.
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
The Different Emphasis of the NDC programme
Short – term
10 year horizon
(e.g. SRB typically 3 year schemes)
Designed
to
Communities at
the centre
Distrusted by local residents
produce
Sustainable
renewal
Overly focused on physical
regeneration
‘Holistic’ approach
for both
people
and
Divorced from long-term
public service providers
Close working with
LA and key agencies
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
places
Relative Area Deprivation and NDCs
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Housing as the latecomer







Not originally a key outcome area
..but included due to community concerns
even if leverage over large scale investment is
limited
long lead-in time for housing strategies
..feeding some community frustration
number of NDC projects increased by 78 per cent
2001 – 2004
..but housing projects increased by 115 per cent!
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Housing in the NDC paradigm





community-led emphasis often delayed agreement
over approach
focus on improving what there was, not creating
something new...?
NDC often became local catalyst for debates
around stock transfer, new forms of investment,
rise of buy to let markets..
..and initially apart from parallel interventions – eg
HMR
NDC as an 'inward-looking' not 'outward-looking'
initiative?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Emphasis
Focus
Approach to
housing stock
Priorities in
housing mgmt
Nature of links
Priority to c'ty
involvement
Strengths
Vulnerabilities
Inward-looking?:
NDC
Agency
Outward-looking?:
HMR
Structure
Existing residents
Neighbourhood
Re-invest
Potential residents
Sub-region
Remodel
Accessibility/
support
Managementcentred
Inter-departmental
High
'Marketing'/
'rebranding'
Strategy-centred
Inter-sectoral
Visible impact
Spill-over
Displacement
Market-centred
C'ty support
Delivery vehicle
Low
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Outcomes for Housing and the Physical
Environment

improving environment/levels of satisfaction
improving housing quality/satisfaction (24)
improving appearance of the area (19)
green/open spaces (17)
reducing proportion of voids (12)
reducing rates of out-migration (9)
increasing house prices in relative terms (8)

Source: NDC Delivery Plans 2004






Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
(25)
Average dwelling price by type in
NDC areas
2001
£121,350
2004
Detached
£161,050
£68,450
Semi-detached
£98,150
£64,250
Terraced
£69,500
£149,050
Flats
£166,650
£0
Source: SDRC
£40,000
£80,000
£120,000
£160,000
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
£200,000
Average dwelling prices: NDC areas with
highest and lowest prices 2004
£290,650
Islington
£249,900
£277,850
H'smith & Fulham
£231,850
£218,100
£214,900
Hackney
£209,150
Lambeth
£151,600
£207,550
Brent
£167,550
Hull
£47,950
£28,250
Bradford
£47,050
£24,800
Oldham
£44,600
£26,400
Manchester
£36,600
£16,150
Hartlepool
£34,300
£21,600
£0
Source: SDRC
£40,000
2004
2001
£80,000 £120,000 £160,000 £200,000 £240,000 £280,000 £320,000
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Neighbourhood renewal for
differentiated housing markets (1)
in London.....
 affordability dominates all
 impact on leaseholders
 risk of 'two tier' markets
 ..but receipts from land sales offer some
leverage
 overcrowding more an issue than high void
rates
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
15.0
10.0
percentage
London: 9 of 10 areas with highest rates
of residential overcrowding
25.0
NDC average
20.0
Over 1.0 persons per room
5.0
0.0
Tower Hamlets NDC
Southwark NDC
Newham NDC
Birmingham A NDC
Brent NDC
Hackney NDC
Haringey NDC
Lambeth NDC
Hammersmith & Fulham NDC
Lewisham NDC
Bradford NDC
Islington NDC
Luton NDC
Sheffield NDC
Newcastle NDC
Sandwell NDC
Coventry NDC
Hull NDC
Birmingham KN NDC
Wolverhampton NDC
Leicester NDC
Brighton NDC
Norwich NDC
Derby NDC
Nottingham NDC
Oldham NDC
Liverpool NDC
Middlesbrough NDC
Knowsley NDC
Walsall NDC
Southampton NDC
Plymouth NDC
Doncaster NDC
Salford NDC
Sunderland NDC
Rochdale NDC
Manchester NDC
Hartlepool NDC
Bristol NDC
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Neighbourhood renewal for
differentiated housing markets (2)
in Hartlepool.....
 300 properties to be demolished
 ..but further demolition opposed by residents
 how to find up to £12 million for refurbishment?
 concerns about poor management in PRS
 extensive developable land – why invest in the
NDC area?
 poverty is 'widespread not concentrated'
 ..so where are the affluent to help produce the
'mix'?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Owner occupied
Tenure in NDC areas
32
2002
NDC
2004
34
47
Comparator
Social sector renter
47
57
NDC
55
42
Comparator
40
Private renter
10
NDC
10
10
Comparator
11
0
Base: All
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percentage
40
45
50
55
Source: MORI/NOP
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
60
..but big changes on the horizon..?
Southwark:
projected proportion of home owners (2011) 8%
Delivery Plan objective (2011)
50%
Brent:
projected proportion of home owners
17%
Delivery Plan objective
38%
Newcastle
projected proportion of home owners
14%
Delivery Plan objective
40-50%
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Impact of housing interventions...




too soon to tell..?
disruption for many communities
but intensive management has been
selectively introduced
market change and mobility more telling
than specific interventions?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Additionality of NDC expenditure and outputs
Example output
Additionality
Ratio
Per capita NDC spend 2000/01 to 2003/4
Housing and Environment (£333)
Education (£244)
Crime and disorder (£164)
Worklessness (£154)
Health (£149)
8,000 Homes
improved or built
.52
9,500 adults obtaining
qualifications
.82
70,000 young people
involved in diversion
activities
.64
17,000 received
job training
.82
104 new or improved
health facilities
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
.85
Perceptions of the area are improving
(2002-2004)
NDC
Comparator
-14
Area worse than 2 years ago
(a)
-9
6
Satisfied with area
1
-20
-15
-10
-5
Percentage point change
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
0
5
10
Satisfied with landlord (b)
Satisfied with sate of
repair of home (a)
Satisfied with
accommodation (a)
Limited impact on satisfaction with accommodation,
repair and landlords
81
2002
NDC
2004
82
87
Comparator
88
69
NDC
71
77
Comparator
77
65
NDC
67
70
Comparator
71
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percentage
60
70
80
90
100
Base: (a)All; (b)All tenants, including shared ownership; NDC Aggregate 2002 (13,222), 2004 (12,883); Comparator 2002 (1,052), 2004 (2,109)
Source: MORI/NOP
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
..but the impact of inward and outward mobility is
significant
16
Inmovers
Outmovers
Owner Occupiers
48
41
16-24
18
29
NVQ4+
31
61
Economically Active
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percentage
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
60
70
80
90
the circumstances of outmovers from NDC after 2002
38
Owner occupier
48
41
Social sector renter
2002
31
2004
0
10
20
30
Percentage
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
40
50
60
the impact of mobility....


does it show latent demand for affordable
home ownership locally...
or is it a sign of getting on, by getting out?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Housing in Phase 1 of NDC evaluation




discernible shift from environmental uplifts and
housing management focus to investment,
restructuring and tenure change..
synthesis emerging between 'inward' and 'outward'
approaches?
more 'market aware' approaches being developed ..
..but transformational change will depend on
patterns of mobility as much as quality of
interventions
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
and some outstanding 'challenges'..








scale of investment required for transformational
change
while managing local expectations
the development of intermediate housing options..
the potential threats to community cohesion in
segmented housing markets
partnership approach with LAs, RSLs, HMR, RHBs
EP etc is essential for NDCs ...
..but not a meeting of equals?
and clashing time frames for delivery..
is 10 years long enough?
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
and challenges for Phase 2 of the
evaluation...







use 2006 and 2008 MORI household surveys to
map changing profile of in-migrants
..but cannot follow out-movers
six case study NDCs will offer detailed monitoring
in different market contexts
need to explore changing circumstances of
particular communities over time
success of new residential developments is key
but inevitable time lag between changing the
landscape
....and changing the image.
Presentation to NRU/DLGC
9 May 2006
Housing and NDCs
Key Findings from Phase 1 of
the National Evaluation
Ian Cole
CRESR
Sheffield Hallam University