Transcript Document

FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE IN COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES (CDCs)
BY
T. OLALEKAN WILLIAMS
Head, Enterprise & Agric Section
www.thecommonwealth.org
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
•
WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY?
•
WHAT ARE THE LIKELY IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) ON FOOD
SECURITY IN CDCs?
•
HOW SHOULD CDCs RESPOND TO CC?
•
HOW CAN COMMOWEALTH
INSTITUTIONS HELP CDCs TO ENSURE
FOOD SECURITY IN THE FACE OF CC?
CLIMATE CHANGE (CC)
•
SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT
CC IS ALREADY WITH US
•
PAST EMISSIONS OF GHG ARE
ALREADY AFFECTING THE EARTH’S
CLIMATE
•
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL
AND INCREASES IN FREQUENCY OF
EXTREME EVENTS HAVE LONG-TERM
IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE FOOD SECURITY
FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN CDCs
•
THE DEVELOPING WORLD ALREADY
CONTENDS WITH CHRONIC FOOD
PROBELMS
•
FAO ESTIMATES THAT ABOUT 820
MILLION PEOPLE IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES ARE FOOD INSECURE
•
45% OF THE UNDERNOURISHED (or
about 370 MILLION) ARE FOUND
WITHIN THE COMMONWEALTH
•
CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENTS YET
ANOTHER CHALLENGE TO FOOD
SECURITY IN CDCs THAT MUST BE
ADDRESSED
WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY?
•
FOOD SECURITY IS THE ABILITY OF ALL
PEOPLE AT ALL TIMES TO ACCESS
ENOUGH FOD FOR AN ACTIVE AND
HEALTHY LIFE
•
FOUR CONDITIONS MUST BE
FULFILLED TO ENSURE FOOD
SECURITY: AVAILABILITY; ACCESS;
STABILITY AND UTILIZATION
FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY
AVAILABILITY
• production
• distribution
• exchange
ACCESS
• income
• food aid
FOOD
SECURITY
STABILITY
• supplies
• access
UTILIZATION
• nutrient content
• food safety
• human health
LINKS BETWEEN CC & FOOD SECURITY
•
ALL FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD
SECURITY ARE LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
•
NONETHELESS, THE LINKS BEWTEEN
CC AND FOOD SECURITY HAVE TO
DATE LARGELY BEEN EXPLORED IN
RELATION TO FOOD AVAILABILITY,
PARTICULARLY CROP PRODUCTIVITY
OTHER DETERMINANTS OF FOOD
SECURITY
•
Food security will depend not only on
CC, but also on socio-economic
conditions, including
- household income
- food prices
- development pathway
- trade flows
- food stocks
- food aid
Food insecure regions and countries at risk by climate event
Phenomenon

Hot days &
nights

Warm spells
/heat waves
over most
land areas
Extreme events
-
Droughts
-
Floods
Region/Country
Projected impact
Countries of arid and
semi-arid and
sub-tropical Asia,
Sub-Saharan Africa

Decreased crop and livestock
yields due to water and heat
stress
Semi-arid and
sub-humid Africa
(particularly southern
Africa) and South Asia

Land degradation, crop damage
and failure leading to lower
yields
Increased livestock deaths
Low-lying areas,
deltas, river valleys &
lake basins of Africa
and Asia



Damage to crops & food stores
Soil erosion, inability to
cultivate land due to water
logging
Food insecure regions and countries at risk by climate event
Phenomenon
 Sea-level rise
Region/Country
•
West Africa
(Gambia)
•
East Africa
(Mozambique)
•
South & South East
Asia (Bay of
Bengali)
•
Caribbean
•
Pacific Island
Countries
Projected impact
 Loss of cropland and nursery
areas for fisheries through salt
water intrusion
 Salinisation of irrigation water,
estuaries & freshwater systems
which will threaten
- irrigated crops
- aquaculture in low-lying areas
- coral fisheries dependent on
spawning grounds in
mangrove swamps
 Erosion of beaches and coral
bleaching with additional
consequences for fisheries and
tourism
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
AFRICA
•
By 2020, in some countries, yields from
rainfed agriculture could be reduced by
up to 50%
•
The area suitable for agriculture, length
of growing seasons and yield potential,
particularly along the margins of semiarid areas are expected to decrease.
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
AFRICA
•
By 2020, between 75-250 million people
are projected to be exposed to
increased water stress
•
Exotic livestock breeds (important for
dairy production) will suffer production
losses due to greater heat stress
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
AFRICA
•
Decreased fisheries resources in large lakes
due to rising water temperatures exacerbated
by continued over-fishing which may
negatively affect local food supplies
•
Towards the end of the 21st Century,
projected sea level rise will affect low-lying
coastal areas with large populations. Cost of
adaptation could amount to 5-10% of GDP.
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
ASIA
•
By 2050, crop yields could decrease up
by up to 30% in South Asia
•
By 2050, freshwater availability in South
and South-East Asia, particularly in
large river basins is projected to
decrease. This could adversely affect
more than a billion people, with
implications for food processing and
food safety.
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
ASIA
•
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to
diarrhoea diseases primarily associated
with floods. Increases in coastal water
temperature would exacerbate the
abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in
South Asia, with implications for
efficient food utilization.
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
SMALL ISLANDS
•
Deterioration in coastal conditions, for
example, through erosion of beaches and
coral bleaching, is expected to affect local
resources (e.g., fisheries) and reduce the
value of these destinations for tourism
•
By 2050s, fresh water is likely to be reduced
in the Caribbean and Pacific to the point
where it becomes insufficient to meet
demand during low rainfall periods
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD
SECURITY (IPCC 4th Assessment Rep.)
SMALL ISLANDS
•
Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate
inundation, storm surge, erosion and
other coastal hazards, thus threatening
vital infrastructure, settlements and
facilities that support food distribution
and the livelihood of island
communities.
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
•
There are two key ways of responding
to climate change:
- Adapt to the changes
- Reduce through mitigation measures
the sources (emission abatement) or
enhance the sinks (sequestration) of
GHG
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
•
Both adaptation and mitigation
measures are needed to ensure food
security
•
Mitigation measures are needed
because agriculture contributes to CC.
GHG emissions from the food and
agriculture sector contribute over 30%
of the current annual total emissions
(agriculture 13.5%, deforestation
17.4%).
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
•
The most stringent efforts cannot
prevent further impacts of CC in the
next few decades, which makes
adaptation essential, particularly in
addressing near-term impacts
RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Two types of adaptation
•
Autonomous adaptation may be
insufficient given the projected
magnitude of future changes in climate.
•
Planned adaptation measures, i.e.,
response strategies, often multisectoral and involving individual
citizens and national governments
aimed at altering the adaptive capacity
of the agricultural systems will be
required.
Adaptation to ensure food security
Adaptation
Option/Strategy
Underlying policy
framework
Constraints
Cropping & horticulture
 Adjustment of planting
dates
 New crop varieties with
increased resistance to
drought and salt water
 Enhance pest, disease
and weed management
practices
 Soil protection through
tree planting
 Enhance water use and
irrigation efficiency
Key constraints and
opportunities to
implementation
R & D policies
Institutional reform
Land tenure and
land reform
 Lack of technical
know-how
 Lack of financial
resources
 Lack access to new
varieties; markets
Financial incentives Opportunities
 Income from new
products
National water
policies
 Food security
assured
Sustainable
• Integrated water
development
and natural
policies
resources
management
Mitigation activities to ensure food security
Mitigation Option/Strategy Policies and
instruments
Key constraints and
opportunities to
implementation
Crop & livestock
agriculture
Constraints
 Improve crop and
grazing land
management to increase
soil carbon storage
 Restoration of degraded
land
 Improve rice cultivation
techniques and livestock
and manure management
to reduce CH4 emissions
 Improve N fertilizer
application techniques to
reduce NO2 emissions
 Regulations for
improved land use
and management
 Financial
incentives for
maintaining soil
carbon content and
efficient use of
fertilizers
 Lack of technical
know-how
 Lack of financial
resources
Opportunities
 May encourage
synergy with
sustainable
development and
may increase
resilience and
reduce vulnerability
to climate change
POSSIBLE ROLES FOR
COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS
•
Inform and promote dialogue about the
impacts of climate change and what
options exist for reducing vulnerability
•
Assist CDCs to identify and evaluate
adaptation and mitigation options and
help to disseminate information on
which ones are most applicable to their
particular circumstances
POSSIBLE ROLES FOR
COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS
•
Provision of technical assistance to
build adaptive capacity and increase
resilience, particularly in the most
vulnerable countries
•
Support for mainstreaming planned
adaptation and mitigation activities into
overall country-specific development
programmes and strategies (e.g.,
National Programs for Food Security,
PRSPs etc.
POSSIBLE ROLES FOR
COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS
•
Advocacy and support for the
development of regional and
international solutions (rather than
unilateral solutions, for example, in
adaptation to water shortage,
deforestation etc) that will reduce
pressure on national resources, carbon
sinks and hunger.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
www.thecommonwealth.org