Transcript Terrorism - University of South Florida

Terrorism
“On September the 11th, enemies of freedom
committed an act of war against our country…
Either you are with us or you are with the
terrorists.
~ President George W. Bush, 20 Sep 2001
“…the American people should remain vigilant….
Those plotting against us seek not only to
undermine our security, but also the open society
and the values that we cherish as Americans.
~ President Barack Obama, 28 Dec 2009
Overview
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History
Definitions
Characteristics, Objectives, & Tactics
US National Policy and Military Policy
Future of Terrorism
History
• Terrorism to achieve political agendas isn’t
new
– Jewish dissidents opposed
Roman rule (48 C.E.)
– Islamic sect called Hashshashin
pursued “righteous causes”
– Crusaders employed rape as
terror tactic
Hassan-i Sabbah, Iranian
missionary who founded
the Hashshashin
History
• Since 1990s, religious fundamentalism
emerged as primary force for terror
• Weapons proliferation narrowed the gap
between the firepower of
the state and dissidents
Radical Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr
Definitions
• Walter Laqueur:
–
“Terrorism constitutes the illegitimate use of force
to achieve a political objective when innocent people
are targeted.”
• Department of Defense:
–
“The unlawful use or threatened use of force or
violence against individuals or property to coerce or
intimidate governments or societies, often to achieve
political, religious, or ideological objectives.”
Joint Pub. 3-07.2
• The calculated use of unlawful violence or
threat of unlawful violence to inculcate fear;
intended to coerce or to intimidate governments
or societies in pursuit of goals that are generally
political, religious or ideological.
—Joint Publication 3-07.2, Antiterrorism
Key Criteria
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Violence
Political goal
Psychological impact and fear
Targeting of noncombatants
Guerilla vs. Terrorism
Guerilla
Targets
Intended
Impact
Terrorism
Mostly military, police,
State symbols, political
or political opponents opponents, and the public
at large
Mainly physical
Psychological coercion
attrition of the enemy
Tactics
Commando-type
operations
Specialized tactics:
kidnapping, car bombs,
hijacking, etc.
International
Legality
Yes, if follow rules of
armed conduct
No
Typologies of Terrorism
• Political: Force governments
to change structure or
policies, or to achieve radical
societal change
• Religious: Objectives/actions
divinely guided; often tied to
ethnic & nationalist identities
• Social: “Special interest”
(i.e., animal rights)
2004: Train bombings in Spain; Al
Qaeda claims responsibility
Categories of Terrorism
• Domestic Terrorism
– Terrorism perpetrated by the citizens of a country
against their fellow citizens
Categories of Terrorism
• International terrorism
– Terrorism in which planning and execution of the
terrorist act transcends national boundaries
Characteristics
• Status: Most from middle class backgrounds,
with some from extreme wealth
• Education: Intelligent and literate, with
varying levels of formal education
• Age: Operational members aged between 2035, while suicide bombers tend to be younger
• Gender: Most are male but not exclusively
“There’s nothing wrong with being a terrorist, as long as you win.”
(Paul Watson, Sea Shepherd Conservation Society)
Objectives of Terrorism
• Attract attention for cause
• Demonstrate group’s power
• Show government’s lack
of power
• Exact revenge
• Obtain logistical support
• Cause a government to overreact
Terrorist Planning Cycle
1.Broad
target
selection:
Collection
of in,
data
on
5.
2.
3.
6.
7.
4.
Specific
Intelligence
Action:
Escape
Pre-attack
Attack
rehearsal:
and
target
Generally,
surveillance
exploitation:
and
selection:
surveillance:
Often
goal
and
is
includes
Decision
Escape
toplanning:
get
plans
point!
get
large
number
ofgathering
potential
targets
Information
the job
well
Quantity
relocation
rehearsed
done,
and
to
target
quality
and
andget
exploitation
site,
of
out
on
data
testing
the
before
gathering
targets
of
of
security
security
with
greatest
forces can
successful
increases,
responsiveness
possibility
and
react
attack
usually
and
vital
ofescape
success
is
to gathered
achieve
routes,
(i.e.desired
over
and
schedules,
effectto weeks
days
checking
equipment
security, layout,
performance
etc.)
Tactics
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Assassination
Arson
Bombing
Hostage taking
Kidnapping
Hijacking
• Seizures
• Raids
• Sabotage
• Threat or Hoax
• Use of WMD
“Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed
to achieve mass casualties.” (National Intelligence Council)
Tactics
• Assassination—Murder of
prominent persons,
symbolic enemies, or
traitors who defect from
the group
• Arson—Requires little
technical knowledge, poses
low risk to terrorist, and can
cause significant destruction
Egyptian President Anwar al-Sadat
(top right) and Israeli Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin (below)
Tactics
• Bombing—Explosive devices
commonly employed in
warfare are now an integral
part of the terrorist’s arsenal
– Oct 1983: Marine barracks in
Beirut; 245 were killed and
146 wounded
– Oct 2000: Navy destroyer USS
Cole attacked, resulting in the
death of 17 sailors and
39 injured
Tactics
• Improvised explosive device
(IED) is the terrorist’s weapon
of choice:
– Inexpensive to produce
– Detonation techniques
– Low risk to the perpetrator
– Placement/concealment
– High attention-getting capacity
Tactics
• Hostage taking: Overt
seizure of individuals with
the intent of gaining
publicity or concessions in
return for release of
the hostage
• Kidnapping: Covert seizure
of one or more specific
person(s) in order to extract
specific demands
Sep 2004: Chechen terrorists took
hundreds of school children and adults
hostage in Beslan, Russia
Rescued
Oct 2002: Ingrid Betancourt kidnapped
by the FARC; still missing
Tactics
• Hijacking or Skyjacking: Normally
executed to produce a spectacular
hostage situation; any passenger
transport can be used
• Seizure: Usually involves a building
or object that has value in the eyes
of the audience
1976: Highjacked Flight 139 out of Tel Aviv
was diverted to Entebbe, Uganda. Israeli
forces, led by Col Yoni Netanyahu, rescued
the hostages in Operation Thunderbolt.
Netanyahu was the only military casualty.
Tactics
• Raids/Attacks on Facilities: Done
to gain access to media, acquire
resources, and/or demonstrate
government’s inability to secure
critical facilities
• Sabotage: Destruction of
equipment or infrastructure to
demonstrate vulnerability of
society and to disrupt services
April 2005: Insurgents led a
coordinated attack on Abu Ghraib
prison; intended to free detainees
and kill US forces… FAILED!
Tactics
• Threat or Hoaxes: Threat that
causes diversion of resources;
can dull effectiveness of
preventive or
countermeasures
• Use of WMD: Chemical
weapons used in the past…
many groups have expressed
desire to acquire WMD
1995: Terror group Aum Shinrikyo
released Sarin gas in the Tokyo subway,
injuring thousands and killing 12 people
“Acquiring weapons (WMD) for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.”
(Osama Bin Laden)
Terrorist Attacks 1970-2007
US Terror Policy
• First articulated by the Reagan administration
and reaffirmed by every president since
• Four enduring policy principles
– Make no concessions to terrorists
– Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes
– Isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor
terrorism to force them to change their behavior
– Bolster the counterterrorist capabilities of those
countries that work with the United States and
require assistance
National Strategy for
Combating Terrorism
• Advance effective democracies as the long-term antidote
to the ideology of terrorism;
• Prevent attacks by terrorist networks;
• Deny weapons of mass destruction to rogue states and
terrorist allies who seek to use them;
• Deny terrorists the support and sanctuary of rogue states;
• Deny terrorists control of any nation they would use as a
base and launching pad for terror; and
• Lay the foundations and build the institutions and
structures we need to carry the fight forward against terror
and help ensure our ultimate success.
US Policy Post 9/11
• Dept. of Homeland Security established: Third
largest cabinet department after DOD and VA
• Incorporates existing agencies, including US
Coast Guard, Secret Service, and CIS
• Coordinates capabilities of 22+ agencies to:
– Secure borders, transportation, critical infrastructure
– Synthesize/analyze homeland security intelligence
– Spearheads domestic counter-terrorism efforts
US Military Policy
• Guiding principles:
– US forces will continue to engage
– Force protection will be a
major consideration
• DOD addresses terrorism from
two distinct perspectives:
– Counterterrorism (offensive)
– Anti-terrorism (defensive)
• Intelligence critical component for success
US Military Policy
• Counterterrorism
– Offensive measures taken to prevent, deter, and
respond to terrorism include Operation El
Dorado Canyon and the GWOT
• Antiterrorism
– Defensive measures to reduce vulnerability
include facility hardening, setting buildings back
from roads/parking lots, and limiting access to
military posts
Force Protection
• Force Protection—An integrated application of
offensive/defensive actions that deter, detect, preempt,
mitigate, or negate threats against or hazards to Air
Force air and space operations and assets, based on an
acceptable level of risk (JP 1-02)
– Relocation of deployed forces out of
heavily populated areas to an isolated base
– Deployment of floating barriers around
warships in high-risk areas
“Asymmetric challenges can arise across the spectrum of conflict that
will confront US forces in a theater of operations or on US soil.”
(National Intelligence Council)
Future of Terrorism
• Terrorism is a dynamic enemy…and is
adapting to the challenges posed by
developing societies
• Groups like Al Qaeda and Hezbollah benefit
from and are exploiting globalization, even as
they fight against it
• Terrorism is becoming more network based,
encouraging loosely organized, self-financed
organizational structure
Future of Terrorism
• International or transnational cooperation
among terrorist groups is becoming the norm
• WMD proliferation amplifies the danger of
broad, network-based terrorism.
• Terrorists increasingly display a willingness to
use catastrophic violence to cause mass
casualties and destruction
Future of Terrorism
• Other trends:
– Intense motivational extremism
– Flexible organization structure
– Aggressive training to improve operational capability
– Increasing exploitation of media
– Increasing mass casualties and chaos through use of
more advanced weapons
“States with poor governance; ethnic, cultural, or religious tensions; weak
economies; and porous borders will be prime breeding grounds for terrorism.”
(National Intelligence Council)
Summary
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•
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History
Definitions
Characteristics, Objectives, & Tactics
US National Policy and Military Policy
Future of Terrorism
Questions?
“We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will
not fail.” —President Bush, 20 Sep 2001