Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win?

For most of the world in 5 years

(aside from North America and part of Europe):

Phone = Cell Phone Internet = Wireless Internet

• Evolution + 3G builds on existing networks + Huge volumes + Global spectrum • Revolution + IP networks + Optimized air interfaces + Design for converged traffic + New technology for low cost – Separate network – Optimized for voice – Old technology – No global spectrum or approval – No market momentum – Timing?

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 1

Industry Directions for Networking

1990 FPLMTS standards begin 1994 1992 3M Internet Users GPRS standards begin 1st GPRS customers 1995 Microsoft & AT&T still competing with Internet 1998 2000 153M Internet Users • • 6/5/2000 Cellular Telecom Approach – Efforts to define wireless data networking standard (General Packet Radio Service - GPRS) begin before full impact of Internet explosion is felt Internet-Based Approach – Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000) Richard E. Howard 2

6/5/2000

3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary” Route to Wireless Data

Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard Bell Labs, Lucent Technology Richard E. Howard 3

3G Cellular Systems: The Enabler of the Global Internet

First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless Wireless Network Internet Wireless Networks become the point of access that funnels end user experience into the Internet

Richard E. Howard 4 6/5/2000

Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision

• integrated voice and data • video postcards • in-call image up/download 6/5/2000 Bluetooth Wireless PAN GPRS/ EDGE/ TDMA Base Station Wireless Backbone and Gateways • codec converter • bandwidth manager • store & forward • playback

Multimedia & Messaging Server

Wi-Fi (WaveLAN) UMTS/ CDMA2000 Base Station

IP Network

Cable, xDSL, V90 10/100-BaseT Radio Hub

Location Services

Wireless LAN

Content

Richard E. Howard 5

Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

Circuit-Switched Circuit-Switched Voice Packet-Switched Data

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

Packet-Switched

Packet Data

GPRS EDGE IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice Packet Voice & Data over EDGE

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8) EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8) UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

IS-136+ EDGE UMTS CDMA2000 Packet Voice & Data over UMTS (WCDMA)

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 6

Mobility Subscriber Projections:

Analyst View

1.3B by 2004

6/5/2000 Ovum Goldman Sachs EMC IDC Herschel Shosteck Merrill Lynch Nokia Press Release Ericsson Press Release Lucent View 5/99 Est 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Ovum Goldman Sachs EMC IDC Herschel Shosteck Merrill Lynch Nokia Press Release Ericsson Press Release Lucent View 5/99 Est EMC 1998 283 295 299 257 298 301 300 300.5

1999 363 385 421 325 405 397 390 390.7

2000 433 483 569 396 519 493 490 477.8

2001 500 730 2002 562 896 588 600 564.9

683 700 675.3

2003 1049 2004 2005 766 800 809.2

840 924.5

913 10000 1041 Richard E. Howard 7

The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap ($ Millions)

Today’s IP Market

Data Services 37,092 Internet Access IP Telephony IP VPN 15,471 1,890 419

Total 54,872 Today’s Voice Market

Switched Telephony Fax 462,763 64,775

Total 527,538

6/5/2000

Today’s IP Market Today’s Voice Market Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3

=

9.4%

Richard E. Howard 8

6/5/2000

Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode

• Service offered: - Security trading (2 traders) - Banking (31 banks) - Travel - Concert tickets - News - Network game - Total of 1300 I-mode web sites • Subscriber uptake: - Service Launch February 22, 1999 - 20,000 in March - 100,000 in April - 90.000 new subscribers/week in August - August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users) - E-mail and mobile banking most popular Richard E. Howard 9

I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year (and the Rate is Increasing)

~140,000 new subscribers/week

DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000 6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 10

6/5/2000

Wonder Swan

•

Hand-held Game Device

•

Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year

•

Email send and receive (SMTP)

•

Internet Access (mini-browser)

•

Remote download of mini-games

Richard E. Howard 11

Wireless Data in the Japan Market

Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market Segment Cost of Service is “Clearly” Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents) High School Girls 10 YEN P-Mail Business Professional Value Mail

Capability Speed 64K Market Segment

H.S. Girl

Application

64K Dating Connection 6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 12

Mobility: Data vs Voice

• • • • Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice – BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice – US is behind Europe and Japan • Japan is approaching 50% data traffic Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient – 2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3 – 3G systems have • IP backbones • Lower cost per bit • Easy service creation What will be the services?

Who will pay the bills?

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 13

Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

Circuit-Switched Circuit-Switched Voice Packet-Switched Data

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

Packet-Switched

Packet Data

GPRS EDGE IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice Packet Voice & Data over EDGE

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service (17.6 kbps x 8) EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution (59.2 kbps x 8) UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

IS-136+ EDGE UMTS CDMA2000 Packet Voice & Data over UMTS (WCDMA)

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 14

Mobility Subscriber Projections:

by Technology

UMTS

1200000

GSM TDMA (3G)

1000000

TDMA cdma2000 cdmaOne Analog Other

800000 600000 400000 200000

GSM UMTS Subscribers in Thousands 6/5/2000

0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 UMTS GSM TDMA (3G) TDMA 0 0 0 0 6745 14897 30641 56955 69653 12935 19285 25262 37672 45591 50086 53171 0 0 0 0 140 885 2660 5445 6833 14343 23932 35560 65122 83438 10399 12685 cdma2000 cdmaOne 0 0 0 0 1285 6000 15435 27519 7109 20642 36216 56735 11130 14577 18394 22237

Lucent WNG View Richard E. Howard 15

3G Data Options

Wireless Technology 6/5/2000 3G-1X HDR EDGE Compact EDGE Classic Wideband CDMA-DS Wideband CDMA-3X

Spectral Bandwidth 1.25 MHz for Data

1.25 MHz for Data

1 MHz for Data 2.7 MHz for Data 5 MHz for Voice/Data 5 MHz for Data Modeled Throughput 100-180 Kbps

400-600 Kbps

190-275 Kbps 330-370 Kbps 480-720 Kbps 480-720 Kbps Peak Data Rate 305 Kbps (mobile)

2.4 Mbps

(fixed/mobile) 384 Kbps (mobile) 384 Kbps (mobile) 2 Mbps (fixed) 384 Kbps (mobile) 2 Mbps (fixed) 384 Kbps (mobile) Expected Market Introduction 1H2001 (144Kbps peak rate) 1H2002 1H2002 1H2002 1H2001 (Japan) 1H2002 (Eur/NA) 2H2002

Richard E. Howard 16

Transition to Next Generation Networks

Today’s Wireless Networks Next Generation Networks Internet / Advanced Services PSTN PSTN MSC Mobile Switches Packet Mode Servers High Speed Data, Multimedia, Voice over IP, etc .

Wireless Control Servers Feature Control, Network Management, Billing, etc Circuit Mode Servers Voice, LS Circuit Data, etc.

Network Servers Base Stations IP / ATM Core Network … … Radio Clients

 

99% Mobile Voice Circuit Derived



Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline



Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP) The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.

6/5/2000 17 Richard E. Howard

Services Rollout

SMS 1Q1999

6/5/2000

3G Video Visual, High Speed Web cam

WAP launch GPRS

Music Video clips TV Conference Interactive TV Web access m-banking m-stock trading Information Services email

Mobile Office

Schedule Management Work flow Management Electronic Conference File Sharing m-cash Chat Room Radio Multi-player Picture clips Games 4Q1999 Route planning 4Q2000 4Q2001 Intranet Portal Link

Richard E. Howard 18

The Devices are Awesome

• • Docomo Pocketboard

Samsung MP3 Phone Motorola StarTAC™ clipOn Organizer NeoPoint™ 1600 smartphone Nokia 7110 phone & 9110 Communicator Ericsson R320 WAP Phone & MC218 Mobile Companion QUALCOMM pdQ™ smartphone

Bandai WonderSwan 6/5/2000

Sharp Zaurus

Richard E. Howard 1 0 19

Can 3G Deliver?: UMTS Capacity Estimates

• • Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice – 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz – 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.

For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 ) – 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.

– About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license

• => ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps

• Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations – Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps – Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X • If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3) – ~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal – Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00 6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 20

Will UMTS Happen?: Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction

License Winner Price A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited £ 4,384,700,000 B Vodaphone Limited £ 5,964,000,000 C BT (3G) Limited £ 4,030,100,000 D One2One Personal Communications Limited £ 4,003,600,000 E Orange 3G Limited £ 4,095,000,000

~$34B says it will!

Rest of Europe by Fall

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 21

6/5/2000

Backups

Richard E. Howard 22

6/5/2000

Multiple Access Schemes

FDMA

Different Carriers

TDMA

Different Time Slots

CDMA

Different “Languages”

FHSS

Orthogonal Time Slots & Carriers Richard E. Howard 23

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)

• • • • •

Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate circuit and packet data services Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network with adaptive modulation and coding Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels Two versions of EDGE:

–

EDGE Classic enables full backwards compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)

–

EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum (< 1 MHz) deployments Channel structure supports:

– –

Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to 200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limited spectrum deployments)

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 24

Wireless data network

Macrocell-mobile r~3-5 km Minicell-mobile r~1 km Picocell-pedestrian r~100 m Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size 6/5/2000 • • • Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD) Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD) Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)

BLAST technology used in every one

Richard E. Howard 25

Internet Volume Approaches Voice

1.E+14 1.E+13 1.E+12

B

1.E+11 1.E+10

i

1.E+09

t

1.E+08

s s /

1.E+07 1.E+06

e

1.E+05

c

1.E+04 1.E+03 1.E+02 1.E+01 1.E+00

Worldwide voice/modem traffic Actual

 

Projected Crossover Data=10xVoice 1999 2000 Projected

Voice/Modem Total Internet WWW Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactive services approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks Source: Internet Society

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 26

Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP: Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal

6/5/2000

IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data Mob Manager SGSN GGSN 7RE Feature Servers 7RE Signaling Gateways 7RE Resource Servers

•

Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network.

Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC IP/ATM Core Network Customer Care NM Servers • Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.

5ESS Switch Packet Gateway Packet Gateway To Data and VOIP Gateways Circuit Data IWF

APs APs

PSTN Call Control Servers ANSI-41 Backbone Network Use Today’s Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.

Richard E. Howard 27

Enhanced Data for Global Evolution … (continued)

• • • •

Handoff enabled through reselection procedures Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGE in GSM Release 2000 Phase 1

– –

Standards: Release ’99 Large deployments start in 2002

•

Some initial deployments start in 2001

–

Supports best effort packet data at speeds up to about 384 kbps Phase 2

– –

Standards: Release 2000 Large deployments start in 2003

•

Some initial deployments start in 2002

–

Will add Voice over IP capability

6/5/2000 Richard E. Howard 28

3G Solution Direction

• • • 6/5/2000 One Network delivering Voice and Data services – Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market needs – IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services – Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry – Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability (99.999%) Flexible Service Creation – Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments – Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services – Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value added interfaces • Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider Rapid Network Deployment – Easy to install and maintain – Self Optimizing – Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs Richard E. Howard 30