Transcript TOCICO Conference Template

Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast!
Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast!
Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009
Fast Thinking Process Tools
Part 2: The FRT
An overview for TOC Experts
Presented By: James R. Holt
Professor, Washington State University
Date: June, 2009
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Why not complete a
full TP analysis
during this class?
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Why do we have FRTs?
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Validate the Injection will take us in the direction we
want to go
• Find the sufficiency (or insufficiency) of our solution
(Additional Injections)
• Surface Negative Branch Reservations
• Attach the benefits of the injection to Tactic and
Strategic objectives.
• Establish Cooperation/Buy-in from others.
• Substantiate the effect of needed Policy changes
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Origin of the FRT
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• The Origin of the FRT is the Breakthrough Injection.
• Generally, it takes more than one Breakthrough.
• The Evaporating Cloud is the tool we use to surface
the erroneous assumption (or the assumption we
choose to attack) and to find a creative Injection.
• Before discussing the Evaporating Cloud, let’s
discuss the Categories of Legitimate Reservation to
make sure our logic is sufficiently dry (not held
together with saliva).
All logic errors can be tracked back to
insufficient use of the
Categories of Legitimate Reservation
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Categories of Legitimate
Reservation
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CLRs => Discovery!
• First:
Clarity
• Second:
Entity Existence
Causality
• Third
Cause Insufficiency
Additional Cause
Cause Reversal
Predicted Effect
Tautology
The Effect
The Cause
This simple set of rules which compiles all the key elements necessary and
sufficient for anyone to validate or invalidate logic is one of Eliyhau M.
Goldratt’s significant contribution to thinking.
While there are a long list of types of faulty arguments associated with
debate and rhetoric, they refer mostly to argument and negotiation.
The Categories of Legitimate Reservation apply to finding the Truth.
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Categories of Legitimate
Reservation: CLR – Clarity
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Expressing logic visually gives the opportunity
for scrutiny often missed when voiced only.
This is a pretty
little girls school
This is a small
school for girls
A School only for Pretty Girls?
Or, is it a Pretty School for young girls?
Or, just a very Little School?
Could it be a school for one particular
Pretty Girl (you missed the apostrophe)?
Are there boys there too?
Does the building look particularly nice?
What is the enrollment?
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CLR – Entity Existence
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A brand new
Lexus costs
$15,000
The exterior
appearance of the
car doesn’t matter
There is free
maintenance for
100,000 miles
Operating costs
of the car are of
little concern
Entity Existence Reservation:
“Do these things really exist in
your world?”
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CLR – Causality
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The Effect
I receive
20%
interest
I open a
Savings
Account
The Cause
Causality: Show me how the parts in the
Effect (at the point of the arrow) come from
the Cause (from the tail).
I need pants
like Joe’s
I need
a car
I become a
millionaire
I want to be
different
My roommate
has a car
I buy stock
There are problems with each one.
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CLR – Cause Insufficiency
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Insufficiency Reservation: You
Need to do your Project well.
I get excellent
grades in Class
I turn-in
good
homework
Insufficiency Reservation: Your
Group needs to complete a
good Group Project too.
My Group
Project
goes well
My Project
goes well
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CLR – (More on Insufficiency)
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Is it sufficient?
Not without the
Triangle!
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CLR – Additional Cause
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Additional Cause Reservation:
I don’t get
good Gas
Mileage
Additional Cause Reservation:
I drive too fast
Ah-Ha! We see at
least one area
My Truck is
I carry heavy
were improvement
large
is possible.
loads
The “Bow Tie” – Magnitudinal And Connector says,
“If two or more of these independent causes occur
together, I really don’t get good Gas Mileage!”
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CLR – Cause Reversal
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My Garage is
full of stuff.
My Garage is
too small.
My Garage is
too small.
The small Garage
didn’t cause all
the stuff in the
Garage.
My Garage is
full of stuff
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I can’t get my
car in the
Garage.
CLR – Predicted Effect
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We don’t
have enough
money
to pay our
bills
Our Income
is too
low
Others with the
same income
would not be
able to pay their
bills
We have too
many bills
Many others
with same or
less income do
pay their bills
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Predicted Effect Reservation:
If our income is too low, I
would expect to see most
people with the same income
unable to pay their bills.
And yet, I see lots of people
with the same or less income
paying their bills just fine.
We buy too
many things that
many others
don’t need
Discovery Happens!
CLR-Tautology Reservation
A Too Tight a Logical Loop
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Too Tight
a Logic
Loop
10. There
is a
Chicken
A Longer Logical
Loop
Resolves the Age
Old Question
Tautology is the Most
Frequent Logical Error.
20. There
is an Egg
11. A Male and
Female Chicken
can produce a
fertile Egg
14. There is a
Male Chicken
16. There is a
Female Chicken
OR
20. There is a
fertile Egg
But, maybe there were two eggs first!
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CLR – Tautology
Most Frequent
Logical Error.
The Cause is the Excuse
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The Beavers
lost the game
The Effect
The Beavers are
a lousy team.
The Cause
• The Circular
Logic of the Cause
is accepted
because of the
Effect.
• “How do you know the Beavers are a lousy Team?”
• “Because, they lost the game didn’t they!”
• Whenever you hear, a BECAUSE,
Alert #1  that is the same as the Effect you
have a Tautology (bad logic).
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CLR – Tautology
Most Frequent
Logical Error.
The Cause is Hard to Define
The Beavers
lost the game
The Beavers are
a lousy team.
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• The Circular Logic of the Tautology
comes from a Cause which is often
abstract; difficult to determine, define
or quantify.
• So, too often the Cause is not
challenged.
• And, the undefined Cause is
accepted because of the Effect.
• To resolve the Tautology, the Cause needs to be
something that can be determined and challenged;
Not an Abstract Concept.
• In this case, the abstract word is “lousy”. What does that
mean? We need another substantial meaning.
Alert #2  • When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT,
we need to dig further.
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CLR – Tautology: Searching
For An Alternate Connection
Most Frequent
Logical Error.
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The Beavers are
depressed by their
mistakes
The Beavers
lost the game
TheBeavers
Beaversmay
arenot
The
bea so
badteam.
after all.
lousy
The Beavers play
a lousy game
The Beavers
don’t execute
well
The Beavers
face an easy
team
People
feel
Injection: The
Beavers
bad
when
learn from dumb
mistakes
The Beavers are
perceived as a
lousy team.
The Beavers
don’t prepare
well for games
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they make
dumb
mistakes
The Beavers are
in a slump
They are not
thinking clearly
How Do Tautologies Happen?
Most Frequent
Logical Error.
TOCICO 2009 Conference
They are
obstinate
They are
obstinate
They still
don’t do it
I push them
hard
I push them
harder
I push them
Do we every stop
to think, “Why?”
Why don’t people
do what they are
told?
Hum?
They don’t
do it
I tell them
what to do
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Cause for the Tautology
Knee Jerk Reaction
Most Frequent
Logical Error.
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• In General, the most common error in “Jumping to
Conclusions” is the Tautology!
Sometimes a
Tautology is a
single statement.
They are Muslims
He won’t
help us
He is Black
She’s a Woman
He is a
jerk
They are Poor
Men!
He’s a Polack
They are Part of
Management!
Hum?
What is the underlying reason for these crude remarks?
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Scrutinize the ‘Knee Jerk’
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Alerts to Tautology Errors:
• When we hear, “BECAUSE” (same as Effect)…
• When the BECAUSE is ABSTRACT…
• When the ABSTRACT is DEROGITORY …
− Tautology Reservation is Inevitable!
• Basic Assumptions of The Theory of Constraints:
All People
Think
All People are
Good
Every action is logical
(within the environment and in
accordance with the
individual’s understanding of
their ability to change the
environment)
Emotion is evidence of
passionate, logical thinking! Don’t
let a Tautology waste it.
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Correcting a Tautology Error
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They are Part of
Management!
=>
Why Should they?
I’m important
I do a good job
Management must
be dealing with
some very serious
needs
Management is
Incompetent
Management
Ignores me
I don’t get
what I need
Management
Doesn’t
Respond
I am not the
system’s
problem
Management
Doesn’t
Listen
Management’s Role is to
oversee the systemic
performance
I’m glad it’s not me!
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The Evaporating Cloud:
Human Behavior Processes
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The Goal: Cooperation
The Measure: Success of the group
The Constraint: Conflict
• The other party is starting to be
obnoxious
• I spend time justifying my side of
the argument
• I feel I must attack the other
side’s opinion (debate)
“Life is
a Tug
of War”
• I’m becoming as stubborn as the
the other side
• The conflict will probably be
resolved by force!
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Human Behavior Type
Processes
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The Problem: Conflict
The Paradigm Shift: Every person is Right
(there is no logical conflict), based upon each
person’s understanding of the situation and
their perception of their ability to change it.
A. Have
successful
Relationships
Tug
of
War
B. Appreciate
the other side
D. Give-in to the
other side
C. Be
respected
D’. Don’t Give-in to the
other side
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Solution: Check the Underlying
Assumptions
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Assumption: I’m
the only one
who knows what
is right.
Implications:
•I haven’t been telling my
boss what is important.
•I don’t understand my
boss’ world.
A. I contribute
to our
Organization
Assumption:
My Boss
disagrees with
what is right.
My boss is
incompetent.
The boss’ personality
and management style
irritates some
employees.
B. I keep my
Job
D. I put up with my
Boss
Injection: I have good
communication with my boss.
C. I do what I
think is right
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D’. I don’t put up with
my Boss
Evaporating the Cloud
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• Evaporating the Cloud is the process of making the
Assumptions that bind us to the conflict no longer
valid. The Conflict Evaporates.
• Finding the Assumptions is sometimes easy:
In order to have (Head) I must have (Tail)
because … (Fill in the blank).
• Finding a Breakthrough injection may be hard.
− Because the breakthrough injection can’t be done.
− Really? Why?
− Because, …. If I do this, then that will occur!
− Sounds like an NBR or another EC!
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How to proceed?
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• First, I strongly suggest you identify the five (5 or more)
assumptions for each arrow in your Core Conflict Cloud,
so you have several targets.
• Second, Try the absurd approach, "There is absolutely
no way to __ without __ Since __ Blocks you every
step of the way,” filling in the blanks at each arrow.
• Third, a reference environment helps. "In order eat, I
must have money because I pay for my food." Where are
all the places that I can go and eat or situations where I
don't have to pay to eat? Jail, Church Buffet, Military
Chow Line, Mom's ....
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Impossible Injection?
(Jump to 32)
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• Fourth, DON'T DISCARD AN IMPOSSIBLE INJECTION!
- Most breakthrough injections come as you dig deeper.
- Often you come up with an injection and quickly discard it because it is
impossible in your environment.
- DON'T DO THAT! If it is impossible, it’s just harder to do.
- It just means there is some conflict associated with your injection that
caused you to give up.
- Record the impossible injection the same as you would in a brain
storming session.
- Hey, you could have five or more impossible injections. No problem.
Just pick one that looks potentially possible and dig deeper. That is, put
the impossible injection at the D position of a new cloud. Let D' be the
reason you can't do it. And carry on to break that new cloud.
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Dealing with the Impossible
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• Example:
• A. Produce high-performance fighter aircraft
• B. Light weight
• C. Affordable
• D. Made from Composites
• D'. Made from Aluminum
• Assumption C<-D’: High Temp Cure is a problem
for fabrication and for repair (Move to D).
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Driving Down into the Cloud
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Deeper Example:
• A. Excellent aircraft material
• B. Durable
• C. Withstand high variations in temperature
• D. Low Cure Temp composites
• D'. High Cure Temp composites
• Assumption C<-D’: Only High Temp Cure has
high glass transition point (Move to D).
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Closer to a Solution
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• A. Practical Fighter
• B. Structure suitable for all temp ranges
• C. Field repairable
• D. High glass transition point
• D'. Low glass transition point
• Assumption C<-D’: The only way to field cure
high temperature resin is with a electron beam
gun (Move to D).
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Possible Injections
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• A. Practical Fighter
• B. Repairable
• C. Things we Know
• D. Use Electron Beam Gun
• D' Not use Electron beam gun
• Assumption C<-D’: We are not in Star Trek here.
• Injection: We remove the door from the microwave in the NCO Club
and nuke the daylights out of the composite resin. We can do this
whenever we have to patch a hole in a composite wing in the field.
• Hey mon, this may not work but at least we know where we are
trying to go and can focus basic research.
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A Basic Core Conflict Shows Avenues
for Basic Research
Use an
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Create a
throw-away
Fighter
alternative beam
source
D. Use Electron Beam
Gun
B. Repairable
A Practical
Fighter
Develop a new
resin that is self
binding (Velcro
Resin)
C. Things we know
Use things
that others
know that
we don’t
D1’. Don’t use an
Electron Beam Gun
Discover
Impossible
Technology
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A Case for an FRT:
A Teenager’s World
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I don’t make good
decisions
I always get into trouble
I never get to do what I
I’m bored
My life offers little
want
I am controlled by
challenge
others
I’m not dependable
I’m unpredictable
I am not obedient
I am easily bored I rebel
I am overwhelmed
I’m demanding
I don’t plan too well
I am excitement bound!
I am short sited
Too much busy work I’m easily distracted
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Building the Order
Story line: You have a terrible fight with Mom. You want to
TOCICO 2009 Conference
go out with a strange boy you just met. He looks
so COOL!
Reads logically: In order to (Head) I must have (Tail)
No conflict between B and C. Clear Conflict between D and
D1.
3. Why I want what want! 1. What do I want?
5. Why we are still
talking about this!
B1. Have some
fun
D1. Go out with
stranger
A1. Grow safely
D1’. Don’t go out with
stranger
C1. Be safe
4. Why they want what they want! 2. What do they want?
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Communicating Order
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1. Our Mutual
4. The mutually
5. What I want to do to
recognized need I have
fill that need
B1. Have some
fun
D1. Go out with
stranger
Goal!
A1. Grow safely
D1’. Don’t go out with
stranger
C1. Be safe
2. What the other side
3. What the other side
wants for us
is asking for.
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Practice on Jeopardy
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Story line: A teenage boy doesn’t appreciate his mother
What is the Jeopardy between D and C?
B1. Give Thanks
D1. Show appreciation
C1. Self reliant
D1’. Be macho
(independent)
A1. Mature
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Practice on Jeopardy
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Reword D1:
Does this give us a better understanding of the
Conflict?
B1. Give Thanks
D1.
D1.Show
Showappreciation
dependence
C1. Self reliant
D1’. Be macho
(independent)
A1. Mature
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A Three-Cloud on Teenagers
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B1
Obedient
D1
Give in
B2
Cooperate
B3
Responsible
D2
Expect
Reliability
A1 Make good
decisions
A2 Develop
responsibilit
y
A
Develop
into a good
citizen
A3 Be a
Good Kid
C1
Independent
B
Learn to make
good decisions
D
Be treated as an
adult
C
Be protected
from serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a child
C3 Enjoy Life
C2
Autonomous
Not D1
Rebel
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D3
Tolerate
boredom
Not D3
Have Fun
Not D2
Tolerate
unreliability
Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud
A
Develop
into a
good
citizen
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B
Learn to
make good
decisions
D
Be treated as
an adult
C
Be
protected
from
serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a
child
• Let’s consider our
earlier conflict and
surface some
assumptions.
• Good CitizenGood Decisions BECAUSE:
− Making your own decisions is part of citizenship
− Poor decisions are expensive
− Experimenting can get you in deep trouble
− Good citizens don’t do dumb things
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud
A
Develop
into a
good
citizen
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B
Learn to
make good
decisions
D
Be treated as
an adult
C
Be
protected
from
serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a
child
• Good DecisionsAdult BECAUSE:
− Youth need to be challenged to grow
− Only adults are free to make choices
− Only adults can make good decisions
− Choices with limits are really not free choices
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Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud
A
Develop
into a
good
citizen
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B
Learn to
make good
decisions
D
Be treated as
an adult
C
Be
protected
from
serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a
child
• Good CitizenProtection BECAUSE:
− There are too many devastating alternatives
− Don’t want youth to be hurt
− One mistake in the wrong place is too many
− There are lots of bad things out there
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud
A
Develop
into a
good
citizen
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B
Learn to
make good
decisions
D
Be treated as
an adult
C
Be
protected
from
serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a
child
• ProtectionChild BECAUSE:
− Youth often are not aware of the dangers
− Adults know better
− Youth can’t learn
− Youth make short sighted choices
− Youth can’t imagine the consequences of some bad choices (we
protected them to now)
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Assumptions for the Teenager Cloud
A
Develop
into a
good
citizen
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B
Learn to
make good
decisions
D
Be treated as
an adult
C
Be
protected
from
serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a
child
Hum? Is it better to build a fence at
the top of the Cliff?
Or, Keep an ambulance at the
bottom of the Cliff?
Hum?
• AdultChild BECAUSE:
− Youth can’t make decisions about adult things
− Children are easily confused with conflicting directions
− Adults send mixed messages
− “Am I a grown-up or not?”
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
164 Youth will push
the envelope (try
adult things too
soon)
A Base to Start
the CRT
160 Youth are not sure
where they stand
145 There is
pressure to be
treated as an
adult
125 Youth need to
be challenged to
make tough
decisions
151 Youth can’t decide on
their own which things
are Adult things (can’t
see danger down the
road)
130 We need to
learn to make
good decisions
110 Making our own
decisions is part of
citizenship
135 We need
protection
from serious
harm
100 We want to
Become a good
43
citizen
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
162 Youth will
reject
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responsibility and
parental advice
150 There is
pressure to be
treated as a child
140 Youth often are
not aware of
dangers around
them
120 There are too
many devastating
experiences that could
take a youth down
Invalidating Assumptions
Finding the Injection
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Sometimes, just exposing (verbalizing) the
assumption is enough to find the error.
• Question the assumption, “Why does it have to
exist? Should it continue to exist?” The assumption
may be weak under the spotlight.
• Consider some ‘better management practices’ that
we are not doing to see if there are already solutions
which have already eliminated this assumption.
• Consider your TOC Experience (IT’S NOT LUCK and
others)
• Have you heard of others who found the same
assumption negative and tried to break it?
• Study Strategy and Tactic Trees (www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em534/)
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Challenging Assumptions
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Sometimes the reason an assumption exists is
simply a deeper assumption. Keep asking “Why?”
• Find a Reference Environment (different than yours)
where “In order to (tip of the arrow), I must have (tail
of the arrow)” holds, but the assumption doesn’t.
To Eat  Have Money (I must have money)
−Hum? If I go to jail, I get free food!
−Hum? Church Picnic, Grandmas, Army, ...
• Absurdities work very well. “Its impossible to eat
without money!” Keep trying them.
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Good CitizenGood Decisions
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Assumptions
• Injections
− Making your own decisions
is part of citizenship
− Youth don’t need to be
good citizens
− Poor decisions are
expensive
− They don’t play where they
can’t afford it
− Experimenting can get you
in deep trouble
− The zone of
experimentation is
restricted (Safe Zone)
− Don’t do dumb things
− Do smart things
A direct opposite is ‘sort of’ an injection.
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But, its not a breakthrough.
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Good DecisionsTreat As Adult
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Assumptions
• Injections
− Youth need to be
challenged to grow
− There are safe challenges that
provide growth
− Only adults are free to
make choices
− Kids make good choices.
− Choices with limits are
really not free choices
− Real choices in safe
situations can teach
good things.
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Good CitizenProtect From
Harm
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Assumptions
• Injections
− Too many devastating
alternatives
− Restrict to safe alternatives
− Don’t want youth to be hurt
− One mistake in the wrong
place is too many
− Lots of things can hurt you
− Allow temporary,
minor hurt
− There is a safety buffer
− Restrict to acceptable
alternatives
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
ProtectTreat as a Child
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Assumptions
• Injections
− Youth often are not aware
of the dangers
− We have a long history of
good communications
(talk to youth)
− “Do what I say, not what I do”
(I can’t explain why.)
− Adults know better
− You can’t learn
− There are many opportunities
to learn
− Youth make short sighted
choices
− Youth make amazingly bright
choices
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© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Treat as AdultTreat as Child
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Assumptions
• Injections
− Youth can’t decide about
adult things
− Children are easily
confused with conflicting
directions
− Adults send a mixed
message
− Youth are aware of adult
things and know when to say
away
− Life decisions are clearly right
and wrong
− Adults don’t try to push youth
too fast nor hold them back
too long
− “Am I a grown-up or not?”
− Youth are allowed to mature
naturally
50
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Still Can’t Find an Erroneous
Assumption?
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• If you can’t find an assumption that is invalid,
examine the list of assumptions you have made and
just pick the one that you like the least.
“The shipping costs per item are less with large batches.”
• Advice: Often in a cloud, you want one side and you hate the other
side. Try to pick an assumption behind an arrow on your own side
first. This may be an easier assumption to invalidate.
• State an injection that causes your assumption to no longer be
valid.
“Our shipping costs per item are the same for small or large
batches.” (Can’t change cost per truck. Can better determine the load.)
− We will find out how to do such impossible things later.
− If you can’t find a solution, just do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.
51
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Examining a Sample Core
Conflict! (If don’t need another example, skip to slide 65)
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Here is a long standing core conflict. It is a difficult
one. But, when it is well stated the assumptions and
injections, when found, will yield great insight and
competitive advantage.
• This is called the Generic Sales Conflict:
B. Increase Sales
Volume
A. Successful
Sales
Organization
C. Increase Sales
Margins
52
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
D. Reduce Prices
D’ Increase Prices
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
A<B Assume: More “volume” yields more profit
Inj. Increase volume of higher throughput
margin items while reducing volume of lesser
throughput items (higher profit, same volume).
B. Increase
Sales Volume
A.
Successful
Sales
Organization
C. Increase
Sales Margins
53
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
D. Reduce
Prices
D’ Increase
Prices
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B<D Assume: Customer only cares about
price.
Inj. Our Products offer much more value
to the customer at slightly higher prices.
B. Increase
Sales Volume
A.
Successful
Sales
Organization
C. Increase
Sales Margins
54
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
D. Reduce
Prices
D’ Increase
Prices
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B. Increase
Sales Volume
A.
Successful
Sales
Organization
C. Increase
Sales Margins
D. Reduce
Prices
D’ Increase
Prices
A<C Assume: We do not make money on low
margin items
Inj. We use the high volume of low margin items
to cover our fixed expenses and can accept lower
volumes for much higher margin items
55
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B. Increase
Sales Volume
A.
Successful
Sales
Organization
C. Increase
Sales Margins
D. Reduce
Prices
D’ Increase
Prices
C<D’ Assume: ‘Margin’ is ‘Sales price
less Cost per Part’ (typical cost
accounting)
Inj. We sell below cost (use Throughput
Accounting) to increase total profit
based upon our Capacity Constraint.
56
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
A. Successful
Sales
Organization
B. Increase
Sales
Volume
D. Reduce
Prices
C. Increase
Sales
Margins
D’
Increase
Prices
57
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
C<D’ Assume:
We can’t sell at
two prices in the
same market.
Inj. We segment
the market
(airplane
tickets)
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
A<B Assum: More volume yields more
profit
B<D Assum: Customer only cares
about price
Inj. Increase volume of higher throughput
margin items while reducing volume of
lesser throughput items
Inj. Our Products offer more value to
the customer at higher prices
D. Reduce Prices
B. Increase Sales
Volume
C<D’ Assum: We can’t sell at two
prices in the same market.
A. Successful
Sales
Organization
A<C Assum: We do not
make money on low margin
items
Inj. We use high volume of
low margin items to cover
our fixed expenses
Inj. We segment the market (airplane
tickets)
C. Increase Sales
Margins
You should
recognize
these from
It’s Not Luck
D’ Increase
Prices
C<D’ Assum: Margin is Sales less Cost
per Part (typical cost accounting)
Inj. We sell below cost (use throughput
accounting) to increase total profit.
58
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
By examining the Assumptions,
we can find Breakthroughs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
B<D Assume: Customer only cares
about price
A<B Assume: More volume yields more
profit
Focus volume on
high throughput
items
A. Successful
Sales
Organization
A<C Assume: We do not
make money on low margin
items
We know
throughput
values
Solve customers
problems (value)
B. Increase Sales
Volume
D. Reduce Prices
Super Injection
(Strategy) We manage
using a Throughput
Operating Strategy
C. Increase Sales
Margins
C<D’ Assume: We can’t sell at two
prices in the same market.
We segment
the market
D’ Increase
Prices
C<D’ Assume: Margin is Sales less Cost
per Part (typical cost accounting)
We sell high volume below
accounted costs to cover fixed
expenses
59
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
More on Surfacing Assumptions
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• You may need to surface more than five
assumptions per arrow. Look for all assumptions,
invalid AND valid. You may have to choose a valid
assumption and CHANGE IT!
• Accept all assumptions you can think of, even if YOU
know they aren’t really assumptions. The
assumptions that you quickly reject may be still
blocking others. (Don’t be a lone Jonah—Zealot!)
• When you surface lots of assumptions, the arrow
associated with an assumption can get blurred.
That’s OK. We have Focused Brain Storming!
60
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Comments on Injections
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Injections are conditions (sometimes actions) that
cause the assumption to no longer exist.
• You only need one “Hole in the fence.”
• Injections are new situations that Eliminate the
assumption; Erase the the need for the arrow.
Evaporate the conflict. The Cloud goes away!
• Don’t disregard an Injection just because you have
heard it or tried it before or you think its too hard or
because it could lead to some problems in the
future. It still may be the best injection and the bad
things coming from it will have to be trimmed in
another way. (Future Tools are coming!)
61
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
More on Injections
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• The better you get at surfacing and finding assumptions,
the better you will get at surfacing and finding injections. A
Tautology! Do you see now why ‘a cloud a day keeps
conflict away’?
I gain (more)
intuition
I (get better at)
I surface
surface(ing)
assumptions
assumptions
It is easier to find
holes in complex
systems
I (get better at)
I surface
surface(ing)
Injections
Injections
I gain (more)
creativity
62
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Don’t be Discouraged!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Don’t be discouraged by a tough cloud.
• That means you have a well stated conflict.
• If you can’t break it, ask your peers why the
arrows are absolutely necessary
− Most probable response is: “Well, it’s not
really necessary but we have to do it because
… ,” and they will give you the Decision,
Policy or Measurement that needs to be
changed!
63
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Eliminating the Systemic Conflict
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Finding a breakthrough to a system conflict requires some
deep thinking.
• You can find ideas for injections from many sources.
• Creativity training helps. TRIZ is a clever tool that can
help.
• Try being an 8 or 10 year old again (Remember, you were just a bit
too creative then!)
• Using the assumptions behind the arrows helps focus your
search for discovery.
• Often, you will need to Drive Down (Be a 2 year old, “Why,
Daddy? Why? Why?” again and again.)
64
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
The Good and the Bad in Clouds
TOCICO 2009 Conference
The good stuff!
The Strength of AND!
The Terrible OR!
B
Learn to make
good decisions
D
Be treated as an
adult
C
Be protected
from serious
harm
Not D
Be treated as a child
A
Develop into
a good
citizen
Best Targets of
Opportunity!
65
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Fast Evaporating Cloud Table
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Arrow
Assumptions
Specific Injection
AB
AC
BD
CD’
D/D’
Selected Injection (Strategic Direction):
66
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Searching for a Breakthrough…
(jump to 75)
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Breakthroughs are often blocked by reality.
− That is, someone knows too much! Verbalize!
− Knowing too much can also lead to the best injection! It
means, “You know the Answer.”
− “You can’t do that injection because … “
−Sounds like an assumption behind the injection
or a necessary condition! Ah Ha! Another place
to find a breakthrough!
Bottom line: Make Wild Injections and see where
it leads (Flying Pigs are OK! They lead to visions,
which can be made valid through hard work.)
67
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Consider Our Boss-Employee
Cloud and learn to Drive Down
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Right work
Independent
Action
In order to do the Right work, I must take independent action
because “I can’t ‘work to the schedule’ when
some parts are missing”
Injection: I create my own work plan!
Yeah, right! As if that was possible!
68
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
But, But, But, ...
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Right work
Independent
Action
Right work
I Create my
own work Plan
Injection (new need): I create my own work plan!
Objection: If you create your own work plan, you
will interrupt someone else’s work!
Because, the whole system is planned to a tight
schedule!
Notice: This is a deeper Assumption behind the
Arrow! That is good!
69
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
The answer is behind the deeper
Assumption
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Right work
Independent
Action
Right work
I Create my
own work Plan
Objection: If you create your own work plan, you
will interrupt someone else’s work! The whole
system is planed to a tight schedule!
Injection: The planned schedule has
strategically located buffers to protect
against certain variability.
70
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Often, even another layer deeper
is needed!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Right work
Right work
Right work
Independent
Action
I Create my own
work Plan strategically
Schedule
located buffers
Injection (new Need): The planned schedule
has strategically located buffers to protect
against certain variability.
Objection: Adding buffers will lengthen an already
tight schedule! Can’t do that!
Injection: We have a more
aggressive schedule.
71
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
And Deeper Until Better
Understanding Happens
Right work
Right work
Right work
Right work
Independent
Action
I Create my own
work Plan
Schedule
strategically
located buffers
TOCICO 2009 Conference
More Aggressive
Schedule
Injection(new need) : We have a more aggressive
schedule.
Objection: We can’t meet the Schedule we have now!
We need more time, not less!
Understanding: We waste our protective safety in our
system by ‘peanut buttering’ it all over. Evidence:
Individual tasks complete on time 95% of the time!
72
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Clarity on 95% Complete
TOCICO 2009 Conference
( Try the Sixes Game: http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em530/Docs/SixesGame.pdf)
If this is the distribution of
probable time to complete a
highly variable task, ...
Safety time
is wasted
Due
Date
Then why does the
distribution of our
completed tasks look like
this?
Due
Date
73
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Well Then, What is the Final
Injection?
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Injection: I create my own work plan!
Injection: The planned schedule has
strategically located buffers to protect
against certain variability.
Injection: We have a more aggressive
schedule.
Super Injection: We implement Critical
Chain Scheduling; A New Strategic Direction!
74
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Get as Many Injections to Your
Core Conflict as You Can
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Find many injections. (It’s best if you find one from
behind each arrow)
• Each additional injection adds cleverness to your
solution.
− (I’ve found that very often it requires an injection from behind
each arrow of the EC to provide a complete FRT)
• Examine your many injections. Can you formulate
from the list a single statement that summarizes the
set of Injections? If so, it’s a Super Injection! (also
called a Strategic Direction)
75
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Examine Injections Closely
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Examine your chosen injection.
• Will the Chosen Injection really evaporate the
conflict?
• Will the Chosen Injection be significantly different
than what is happening at the moment?
• Pick several possible injections. One from each
arrow of the Cloud (at least)
• See if you can summarize all the injections into
one statement that synthesizes the intent of all of
them; the Super Injection, Strategic Direction.
76
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Selected Injections From Each
Arrow of Teenager Cloud
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• A<B The zone of of experimentation is restricted
• B<D Safe choices teach good things
• A>C Allow temporary, minor hurt
• C<D’ We have a long history of communication (talk
to youth)
• D<>D’ Youth are allowed to mature naturally
Youth have exciting opportunities to
practice making good decisions in a
safe and supportive environment
77
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Starting UDEs from
A Teenager’s World
TOCICO 2009 Conference
I don’t make good
decisions
I always get into trouble
I never get to do what I
I’m bored
My life offers little
want
I am controlled by
challenge
others
I’m not dependable
I’m unpredictable
I am not obedient
I am easily bored I rebel
I am overwhelmed
I’m demanding
I don’t plan too well
I am excitement bound!
I am short sighted
Too much busy work I’m easily distracted
78
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Regions of the FRT
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Good Citizen
Good Decisions
Safe
Region of Less Conflict
Specific
Injection
Specific
Injection
Specific Injection
Specific Injection
Strategic Direction
79
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
DEs from A Teenager’s World
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Good Citizen
I’m respected
I enjoy the challenges of life
I’m involved in many good things!
I can envision my future
I have few worries
Safe
I live an exciting life
I make good choices
Good Decisions
I understand the
important parts of life
I’m predictable
I can decide my future
I am inventive
I follow the rules
I feel in charge
Region of Less Conflict
Specific
Injection
I feel free to choose
Specific Injection
I know where I’m going
Specific
Injection
Specific Injection
Strategic Direction
80
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Setting the Direction for the FRT
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Good Citizen
I’m respected
I enjoy the challenges of life
I live an exciting life
I’m involved in many good things!
I can envision my future
I make good choices
Good Decisions
I have few worries
I understand the
I’m predictable
Safe
important parts of life
I can decide my future
I follow the rules
I am inventive
Youth mature at
their own rate.
Learn from
Safe Choices
Strategic Direction:
I know where I’m going
Successful, long term
Region of Less Conflict
I feel free to choose
communication
I feel in charge
Temporary, minor
hurt is tolerated
Youth have exciting opportunities to
practice making good decisions in a
safe and supportive environment
81
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
There is a safe zone
of restricted
experimentation
Good Start for the FRT
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Good Citizen
I’m respected
I enjoy the challenges of life
I live an exciting life
I’m involved in many good things!
I can envision my future
I make good choices
Good Decisions
I have few worries
I understand the
I’m predictable
Safe
important parts of life
I can decide my future
I follow the rules
I am inventive
Youth mature at
their own rate.
Learn from
Safe Choices
Strategic Direction:
I know where I’m going
Successful, long term
Region of Less Conflict
I feel free to choose
communication
I feel in charge
Temporary, minor
hurt is tolerated
Youth have exciting opportunities to
practice making good decisions in a
safe and supportive environment
82
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
There is a safe zone
of restricted
experimentation
Revisiting the CRT ...
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• When you find the assumption you want to
invalidate, AND have a corresponding Injection:
− Revisit your CRT. Insert the selected assumption at the
base of the CRT.
− This erroneous (or valid assumption that needs to be
changed) in the CRT is the CORE PROBLEM. This is what
you were looking for! YOU FOUND IT!
− You know it’s invalid; others don’t know that yet.
− Aren’t you glad you finally found it!
83
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Your New, Revised CRT looks
something like this
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Feed
Back
Loop
UDE
UDE
Jeopardy B
Feed
Back
Loop
Jeopardy C
Chosen
Assumption
Included
D’
D
Assum
Core
Problem
B
C
Assum
Assum
A
Assum
84
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Try to build a
good solid crossconnection here
as soon as you
can right above
the conflict
The Fast FRT Structural Regions
DEs that show
evidence A is
achieved or
is possible!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
DEs that show
evidence B is (or
will be) achieved
DE
A
DE
DE
DE
DE
B
C
DE
Inj.
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DEs that show
evidence C is
or can be
achieved
Region of
Less Conflict
Inj.
Inj.
Strategic Injection
85
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Inj.
DEs that show
evidence that
the Conflict is
reduced
Good Strategy
Good Strategy
Accepted Tactics
Insert appropriate
new policies and
measures as
DE
needed.
New Measures
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Accepted Tactics
Accepted Tactics
DE
A
C
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
DE
B
DE
DE
New Policies
Good Strategy
DE
DE
DE
Region of Less Conflict
Injections
Injections
86
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Injections
Plan on expanding
your FRT logically
into Tactics and
Strategy
Recognizing (inserting) Policy,
Measurement, Behavior Changes
TOCICO 2009 Conference
DE
A
DE
B
DE
DE
DE
B
C
M
DE
Region DE
of
Inj
DE
Less Conflict
Inj
Policy
Inj
Injection
87
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Inj
To insure things go well, Feedback! Do it
as low as possible in the FRT.
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Engineer Feedback from as close to bottom as
possible.
DE
A
DE
B
DE
DE
DE
B
C
M
DE
Region DE
of
Inj
DE
Less Conflict
Inj
Policy
Inj
Injection
88
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Inj
Look upwards towards Your Strategic
Objectives. Achieving Them is Great for Buy-In!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
SO
SO
SO
DE
A
INJ
DE
B
DE
DE
DE
B
C
M
DE
Region DE
of
Inj
DE
Less Conflict
Inj
Policy
Inj
Injection
89
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Inj
Improving on the Solution-NBR
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• The FRT is a Strategic View of the future!
− Stand on the Roof of your home and dream of landscaping
the back yard!
• Getting the major pieces to fit together is great!
• But, some times, the major pieces conflict or disrupt
each other.
• Sometimes the major pieces cause unacceptable
problems
• It’s time for the NBR!
(Bad: Will happen, Could happen, Might happen)
90
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Compare the Outcomes!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
DE
UDE
DE
DE
Good Stuff!
The Dark Side!
Change (Injection) of
expected Future
Reality
91
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Positive Twig from FRT (Teen FRT)
The Injection Looks Worth It!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
I can decide
about my future
I feel in
charge
I’m inventive
I feel free
to choose
Good Stuff!
Temporary, minor hurt
is allowed
92
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Positive Twig from FRT (Teen FRT)
But, There is a Problem
TOCICO 2009 Conference
I can decide
about my future
I feel in
charge
Teen my choose
the wrong future!
I’m inventive
Parent has had serious
disagreement with
Teen in the past
I feel free
to choose
Good Stuff!
The Dark Side!
Temporary, minor hurt
is allowed
93
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
If it is worth it, then …
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• Once you know the Injection or
change in reality is worth going
after, …
• Examine the Negative Branch!
• Trim the Negative Effects.
• Trimming NBRs Provides a More
Valuable Future!
94
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Positive Twig from FRT (Teen FRT)
Trimming
There are few
serious differences
in the future!
I can decide
about my future
I feel in
charge
Teen my choose
the wrong future!
Parent Understands
and Respects Teen
I’m inventive
Parent has had serious
disagreement with
The
Side!
Teen Dark
in the past
I feel free
to choose
Good Stuff!
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Temporary, minor hurt
is allowed
95
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Categories of Legitimate
Reservation (skip to 102)
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• All Categories of Legitimate
Reservation apply EXCEPT
− Entity Existence Reservation
−Some future elements may not exist yet!
96
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
CRT Logic Versus FRT
TOCICO 2009 Conference
• We are changing the world of the CRT.
• Much of the negative things in the CRT will become
new, positive things in the FRT.
• But, its not enough to just convert them and retain
the same logic connections as before
IF I have a Dog THEN I have an Animal
IF I don’t have a Dog THEN I don’t have an Animal
Is that always true?
97
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
Mapping Logic CRT to FRT
TOCICO 2009 Conference
CRT
B
D A
B’
C
D’
E
A and D are independent
causes of B
As is E an independent
Cause of C
C’
FRT
A’ E’
Just because A goes away
(Replaced by A’) A’ alone is
not sufficient to cause B’
and C’. D’ and E’ are needed.
IF Dog THEN Animal
IF No Animal THEN No Dog
98
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
IF Dog THEN Animal
IF No Animal THEN No Dog
CRT
B
D A
FRT
C’
C
E
A and B are dependent causes
of C
TOCICO 2009 Conference
E’
C’
E an independent Cause of C
A’
99
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
If C goes away, we can can
conclude there is no E.
But can’t conclude there
is no A. A could still be
there if D or B are absent.
Another frequent logic error in
FRTs
TOCICO 2009 Conference
I eat
vegetables
I eat meat
I eat
bread
I eat a well
balanced meal
I eat a well
balanced
meal
I drink
Milk
I eat fruit
I drink milk
I eat
vegetables
Cause Reversal Reservation
The injection should define
it’s contents.
I eat meat
100
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
I eat bread
Problems that result from missing a
Cause Reversal Reservation in the FRT
TOCICO 2009 Conference
IF I don’t eat a balanced meal THEN I
don’t eat vegetables
IF I don’t eat vegetables
THEN I don’t eat a balanced meal
Does that help to show the difference? And, why
the Cause Reversal is a more serious concern in
the FRT?
101
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.
About James Holt
TOCICO 2009 Conference
Dr. James R. Holt, is a Clinical Professor
of Engineering Management at
Washington State University focusing on
the delivery of the best management
technologies.. Dr. Holt has taught at the
graduate level 18 years and has advised
85 engineering student theses and
dissertations on a wide variety of topics.
Dr. Holt is certified in the TOC Thinking
Process, TOC Operations Management,
TOC Project Management and TOC
Holistic Strategy by the Theory of
Constraints International Certification
Organization and serves as Chairman of
the Board, TOCICO (Theory of
Constraints International Certification
Organization). He is happily married to
Suzanne for 38 years; they have five
children and nine grandchildren.
www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/
[Color Photo of Presenter]
102
© 2009 TOCICO. All rights reserved.