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Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast!

Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast!

Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast!

TOCICO 2009 Conference

TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process Tools Part 1: The CRT An overview for TOC Experts

Presented By: James R. Holt Professor, Washington State University Date: June, 2009

Why not complete a full TP analysis during this class?

Disclaimer

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This material is prepared for TOC Experts. While lots can be learned by a TOC Novice, the material assumes a fairly solid understanding of the role of the Thinking Process Tools within the body of TOC knowledge.

This material touches upon all the topics of the TOC Thinking Process but should not be considered a full course in the Thinking Process. The material is probably sufficient of a review for a TOC Expert prior to taking the TOCICO Thinking Process Exam. Novices are advised to perform several full, successful TP analyses prior to taking the TOCICO Thinking Process Exam.

The material represents a part of my best understanding and does not attempt to eliminate other excellent approaches nor imply that these contents include all that should be known Keep Thinking!

Dr Holt

References:

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Credit goes to the Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute for formalizing the early Thinking Process and for giving it freely to academics world wide. And to all those who contributed to my knowledge gained in snippets from a multitude of sources.

Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints: A Systems Approach to Continuous

Improvement, H. William Dettmer, Quality Press, ISBN 0-973389-370-0, 1997.

The Logical Thinking Process: A Systems Approach to Complex Problem

Solving, H. William Dettmer, Quality Press, ISBN 978-0-87389-723-5, 2007.

Thinking for a Change: Putting the TOC Thinking Processes to Use, Lisa J. Scheinkopf, St. Lucie Press, ISBN 1-57444-101-0, 1999.

It’s Not Luck, Eliyahu M. Goldratt, The North River Press, ISBN 0-88427-115-3, 1994.

The Choice, Eliyahu M. Goldratt, The North River Press, ISBN 978-0-88427-189-5, 2008.

Visual Thinking, James R. Holt & Richard A. Reid, Whoever will Print it, ISBN Soon, 2010.

Washington State University, for supporting the fifteen-year long development of the Fast TP tools as part of EM 526 Constraints Management and EM 534 Contemporary Topics in Constraints Management http://www.engrmgt.wsu.edu/ TOCICO Thinking Process Exam http://www.tocico.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=3316

CRT History – Why it’s the TP So Hard?

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In the Early days (1990), Trees were Positive Trees and Negative Trees. The CRT was a Negative one.

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The relationships were called: Effect-Cause-Effect.

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The existence of very entity we proposed as a Cause had to be confirmed using Predicted Effect.

Effect Effect confirming the existence of the common cause Proposed Cause

Driving / Diving Down is Tough!

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Eli drove down four layers to get to the core Problem of the Sales Marketing Tree.

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It took so much energy that he created a two day seminar just to explain it.

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That seminar formed the basis for

IT’S NOT LUCK

Effect Proposed Cause Entity confirming the existence of the cause Entity confirming the existence of the cause Proposed Cause Entity confirming the existence of the cause

Proposed Cause

Refined CRT Process

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By 1992 the full Thinking Process process was created and taught by the Avraham Y. Goldratt Institute. The first public documentation of the UDE approach was documented by Bill Dettmer in

Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints: A System Approach to Continuous Improvement.

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This didn’t do away with Effect-Cause-Effect, it just simplified it.

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After the CRT was formed, an inquiring mind could examine the CRT looking for conflicts and synthesize them into the Evaporating Cloud. Those who did this, learned a lot from the struggle.

The Communications Current Reality Tree

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Once a Current Reality Tree was created and a Core Problem selected, the CRT was studied to see the opposite sides of the cloud.

By magic, a Core Conflict was created which justified the continued existence of the Core Problem.

Entity Entity UDE UDE Entity UDE Entity Entity Entity UDE UDE UDE Entity Confusion Entity UDE UDE UDE PreRequisite Entity Entity

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The Core Conflict is inserted to Create the Communications CRT.

Assumption Need Assumption Assumption Goal Need Assumption Assumption

Still later, CRTs

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About mid-1990s, the Three-Cloud approached emerged as a quicker way to get to the Core Problem (Core Conflict).

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Using several Evaporating Clouds on dispersed UDEs up front helps find a Core Conflict early and accelerates the CRT Process.

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Then, the CRT became more of a ‘confirmation step’ to insure the correct core conflict had been discovered.

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The CRT is still a tool of discovery!

The Current State of the TOC Thinking Process

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The Three Cloud Approach has proven very helpful in speeding the CRT process.

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But, it’s not 100% perfect. There are times when the there is a Core Problem.

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The Three Cloud Approach can push you to Pre Conceived problems.

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Luckily, the Robust nature of the TP’s alternating Necessary Based Logic and Sufficiency Based Logic (along with liberal use of the Categories of Legitimate Reservations) form a Self-Correcting Process.

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The difficulty in creating a full TP process still blocked implementations.

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How to do it EASIER, FASTER, and MORE CONFIDENT?

Obstacles to Thinking!

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TOCICO 2009 Conference Injection: Use the Thinking Processes (they are EXCEPTIONAL!)

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But , those who know them and should be using them are often blocked because:

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The are hard to use They take a lot of time The are mental anguish IO The Thinking Process can be used effectively within an hour.

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They expose our own weaknesses

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They point out what we don’t know

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They can be too easily criticized (scrutinized) by even those who know much less than we know.

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“We already have a solution; we don’t need to think again.”

Introducing the Fast TOC Tools

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1. Clear UDEs

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2. Three Cloud Approach

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3. CRT Template

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4. Key Injections

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5. FRT Template

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6. PRT Template

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7. TRT for Implementing

What is the Goal of the CRT?

Why do it? What need does it fulfill?

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Creating a CRT Surfaces our intuition

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Often generates missing intuition

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Develops / strengthens our understanding

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Helps us find the Core Problem/Erroneous Assumptions

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Validates the Core Conflict

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Gains Buy-In/Cooperation on the problem needing to be solved (from those often far removed from the core)

Start with Good, Well Stated UDEs

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Every System has UDEs.

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Everyone in the system can expose a few UDEs.

Some people can expose many.

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Any system can be found to be complex.

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Complex interwoven interactions contain just a few root causes.

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Everyone can connect some valid ‘cause and effect’.

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Everyone thinks.

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Everyone is good.

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So, How many UDEs do you need?

42. We only need enough UDEs to validate the assumption/solution (in most cases).

40. TOC Experts know a lot about root assumptions and their solution in wide variety of complex systems.

TOCICO 2009 Conference 32. Systems are blocked by some assumptions about reality.

34. Solutions to exist 30. A solution should have been found by now.

26. Everyone is good 18. We are looking for a simple solution 16. Adding complexity does not make systems simpler 12. Complex systems have just a few root causes.

14. We need to find the few root causes 10. We have a complex system

26. Everyone can connect some ‘cause and effect’ 24. Every system has UDEs.

22. Everyone thinks.

With Few UDES…

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If only a few UDEs are selected, they must be well selected, and worded.

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UDEs are real Problems, Annoyances or Concerns.

- Not Facts of Life (that must be later invalided) - Not Absence of a Solution (causing pre-conceived direction.) - Not Tautologies (they cause self-justification; sneaking errors into the analysis).

- Clearly negative.

- A Full sentence.

- Not a Compound Sentence.

- Diverse but within the selected subject domain.

From UDEs to the Three Cloud Approach

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The Three Cloud Approach seeks out the core conflict from three different views —sort of triangulation.

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The core conflict is then validated with the Current Reality Tree

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To start, we need three or more clouds drawn from the UDEs of concern.

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Then, we can combine the three clouds through some creative manipulation of language into the core conflict.

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Let’s look some UDEs from Project Management

Some Project Management UDEs

TOCICO 2009 Conference There are too many expensive corrective actions There are fights about priorities between projects Original due dates are not met Never enough time The Clients needs keep changing There are budget over-runs Our people are overworked Necessary things (information, specifications, materials, etc.) are not available on time There is too much rework There are too many changes Too often resources are not available when needed

Taken from: Draft manuscript of Project Management the TOC Way, by Eli Goldratt

Select an UDE and Create an “One UDE Cloud”

TOCICO 2009 Conference You may have to reword the UDE to further describe what you mean There are too many expensive corrective actions D. Take some expensive corrective actions (or trim the project content).

Build the First EC

TOCICO 2009 Conference Story line: It seems there is always trouble with the schedule. To catch up, we must take serious corrective action or cut out something. Assumption: Otherwise, we will miss due date B1. Bring the schedule back on track D1. Take some expensive corrective actions (or trim the project content).

A1. Do what we say we will do C1. Do not jeopardize the original commitment for content (stay in budget)

D1’. Don’t take expensive corrective actions (or trim the project content).

Select Second UDE and Create another One UDE Cloud

(from a slightly different area) TOCICO 2009 Conference The Clients needs keep changing You may have to reword the UDE to fit the “Necessary Logic” structure and describe what you mean D. Make changes as the client requests

Build the Second EC

TOCICO 2009 Conference Story line: Just when things are going great, the client changes their mind. This raises havoc with the job and other jobs. Assumption: Client demands the change B2. Honor our commitment to deliver what the client really needs D2. Make changes as the client requests A2. Deliver C2. Meet the original due date and budget commitments

D2’. Don’t make the changes

Select another UDE and Create a Third One UDE Cloud

TOCICO 2009 Conference There is too much rework Again, you may have to reword the UDE to further describe what you mean D. Do Rework

Build a Third EC

TOCICO 2009 Conference Story line: We started the project as soon as possible (before specifications) to meet the tight schedule. And changes happen.

Assumption: We could never meet the schedule otherwise A3. Meet all the demands B3. Take actions to secure meeting the intended content D3. Do Rework C3. Be within the original budget and time commitment D3’. Don’t do Rework

With the Three Clouds ...

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Now you have three independent conflict statements of the problem area.

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Make sure each cloud is well constructed according to the basic guidelines.

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Each statement should represent the accepted situation (even though the logic contains some enormous intuition--causal assumptions--that you have learned to identify already)

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We Don’t try to evaporate these clouds now.

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We are looking for the Core Conflict

Now we are ready to Triangulate

TOCICO 2009 Conference B1. D1. A1. B2. D2. A2. C1. D1’. C2. D2’. We want to dive down and find what really needs to be changed.

Use the intuition we have to find more!

A3. B3. C3. D3. D3’.

This is the idea.

A1. B1. D1. C1. D1’ A2. B2. D2. C2. D2’ TOCICO 2009 Conference

This is the idea.

TOCICO 2009 Conference CA. CB. CD CC. CD’

How To Match them Up:

Continue creating each Core Conflict entity from the three corresponding entities of the three clouds.

CA. CB. CD CC. CD’ TOCICO 2009 Conference A1. B1. D1. C1. B2. D1’ D2. A2. C2. D2’

We cluster the concepts to arrive at the Core Conflict Entity

TOCICO 2009 Conference You’ll need some creative wordsmithing to create one statement out of many.

A1. A2. B1. B2. CB. D1. D2. CD CA. CC. C1. C2. CD’ D1’ D2’

Example: Project Management The Goal?

TOCICO 2009 Conference A1. Meet Schedule and Budget Commitments A2. Meet Delivery and Budget Commitments A3. Meet Content and Budget Commitments Usually easy. AC is pretty straight forward in this example. Something more general in nature than the individual cloud goals.

AC. Meet original commitments What is the overriding purpose of this area of focus?

What is the Thing We are Forced to Do That We Don’t Want to Do?

TOCICO 2009 Conference D1. Take some expensive corrective actions (or trim the project content).

DC. Compensate for early mis estimates or mis considerations AC. Meet original commitments D2. Make changes as the client requests D3. Do Rework We are looking here for the BIG

‘D

UDE

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The Opposite, DC’ is Easier

TOCICO 2009 Conference AC. Meet original commitments D1’. Don’t take expensive corrective actions (or trim the project content).

D2’. Don’t make the changes D’3. Don’t do Rework

DC. Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations DC’. Don’t Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis considerations

Finding Common BC

TOCICO 2009 Conference B1. Bring the schedule back on track BC. Do whatever it takes to meet endangered commitment commitments commitment to deliver what the client really needs DC. Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations DC’. Don’t Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations B3. Take actions to secure meeting the intended content

Achieving Common CC

TOCICO 2009 Conference C1. Do not jeopardize the BC. Do whatever it original takes to meet C2. Meet the AC. Meet original and budget commitments C3. Be within the original budget and time commitment budget) CC. Don’t Jeopardize any other commitment

DC. Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations DC’. Don’t Compensate for early mis-estimates or mis-considerations

Finally, the Core Conflict Cloud C

3 (This one is sometimes called a ‘Generic Cloud’, if it is the Generic Problem’ of a whole industry or system) TOCICO 2009 Conference AC. Meet original commitments BC. Do whatever it takes to meet endangered commitment DC. Compensate for early mis estimates or mis considerations CC. Don’t Jeopardize any other commitment DC’. Don’t Compensate for early mis estimates or mis considerations

Here is another example from Team Management.

TOCICO 2009 Conference Take the Core Conflict Cloud and Rotate it.

A Have a Successful Team B Have a High Degree of Group Cooperation C Encourage Individual Contribution D Base Recognition on Team Performance Not D Do Not Base Recognition on Team Performance The full Team Management CRT is at: http://www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/em526/TeamCRT.gif

Now it’s On end

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Turn the Arrows Around

Base rewards on team performance TOCICO 2009 Conference Base Recognition on Individual Performance High degree of group cooperation Encourage individual contribution Have a Successful Team

Adjust the working to “If .. Then …” Logic

TOCICO 2009 Conference There is pressure to Base rewards on team performance Don’t base rewards on team performance performance a high degree of group cooperation Encourage individual contribution Have a Successful Team a

Add in at least one Assumption for each arrow

(the one you want to break) TOCICO 2009 Conference Individuals don’t really know how they will be measured.

There is pressure to base rewards on team performance Individuals tend to perform in accordance with measurements Team tasks frequently change (and are often self determined We need a high degree of group cooperation There is pressure to base rewards on individual performance We need individual contributions Individuals respond to individual rewards Effective teams have a high degree of synergy We want to have a Successful Team

The team’s work is mostly individual effort

Notice the Key Words Added. They help you make your flip Confusion There is pressure to … (Assumption) (Assumption) We need … TOCICO 2009 Conference There is pressure to not … We need … (Assumption) (Assumption) We want ...

(Assumption)

Note the Mapping back to the Original Core Conflict Cloud

Individuals don’t really know how they will be measured.

TOCICO 2009 Conference There is pressure to base rewards on team performance Individuals tend to perform in accordance with measurements Team tasks frequently change (and are often self determined We need a high degree of group cooperation There is pressure to base rewards on individual performance We need individual contributions Individuals respond to individual rewards Effective teams have a high degree of synergy We want to have a Successful Team

The team’s work is mostly individual effort

164 Individuals will not believe their individual performance matters all that much to the organization.

Extending Upwards is now Easy

160 Individuals don’t really know how they will be measured.

162 Individual will look more towards individual success (local Optima) 145 There is pressure to base rewards on team performance 151 Team tasks frequently change (and are often self determined 150 There is pressure to base rewards on individual performance 125 Individuals tend to perform in accordance with measurements synergy 130 We need a high degree of group cooperation 110 Effective teams have a high degree of 135 We need individual contributions 140 Individuals respond to individual rewards 100 We want to have a Successful Team

120 The team’s work is mostly individual effort

164 Individuals will not believe their individual performance matters all that much to the organization.

The Ice Cream Cone Shape

160 Individuals don’t really know how they will be measured.

120 The team’s work is mostly individual effort

The Revised Ice Cream Cone Base

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Region of Not D’ Region of Not D

Conflict Confusion There is pressure to do D D B C A

D’ There is pressure to NOT do D

The Cone Shape Then Leads to...

NOT C NOT D’ NOT A NOT B NOT D TOCICO 2009 Conference

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The addition to the Base divides the CRT quickly If you don’t have D (Not D) then you can’t expect to have B (Not B) If you don’t have D’ (Not D’), then you can’t expect to have C (Not C) If you don’t have B (Not B) nor C (Not C), you can’t expect to achieve A (Not A)

D D’ B A C

Regional Map of a CRT

TOCICO 2009 Conference NOT A NOT C NOT D’ NOT B NOT D

D D’ B A C

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Using the Regional Map allows the CRT to Build up quickly

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Shows what is missing

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Allows a Thinking Process person to view the CRT and Scrutinize Quickly

Where Are Your UDEs?

May have a region that needs to be checked out! Did you miss something?

NOT A UDE UDE UDE UDE NOT C UDE NOT B UDE NOT D’ UDE UDE

D B

UDE NOT D UDE UDE

D’ C A

TOCICO 2009 Conference Being able to organize your UDEs by the Regional Map (similar to Black Boarding) simplifies and speeds up the CRT Creation Process.

Don’t Force the Regions

UDE UDE NOT C NOT D’ UDE UDE

D B

NOT A UDE UDE UDE UDE UDE NOT B UDE UDE NOT D UDE UDE

D’ C A

TOCICO 2009 Conference Don’t put artificial UDEs in your Tree “just because”.

“Check them out.” Regions tend to create feedback loops so look for them.

The Process of Building the Fast CRT

TOCICO 2009 Conference B UDE Not A UDE UDE A C D D’ UDE Not C UDE Not B UDE UDE Not D’ Not D UDE D’ D B C A

Starting Groups and Connections

TOCICO 2009 Conference A B C D D’ UDE Not C UDE UDE Not A UDE UDE Not B UDE UDE UDE Not D’ D B C D’ UDE Not D Do some UDEs seem related?

One follow the other?

Simple, Temporary Connections

TOCICO 2009 Conference A B C D D’ UDE Not C UDE UDE UDE Not A UDE Not B UDE UDE Not D’ UDE Not D D D’ B C

Try to loosely link to D or D’

TOCICO 2009 Conference A B C D D’ UDE Not C UDE UDE UDE Not A UDE Not B UDE UDE Not D’ UDE Not D D D’ B C