Transcript Slide 1

Growth, Poverty and Agriculture
in Africa: Linkages and Policy
Joachim von Braun
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Accra, Nov. 2007
IFPRI’s Strategic Framework
Research
Partners,
stakeholders,
donors, IFPRI
Board and Staff
Influence on
policies
Capacity
strengthening
Policy
communication
Policymakers,
media, opinion
leaders, and
IFPRI
Impact on
poor people
ECOWAS
AU
IFPRI in Africa
IFPRI Offices
SAKSS Nodes
COMESA
NEPAD
Africa on the move: Overview
1. Growth for poverty reduction
2. Africa’s new growth and development
initiatives (NEPAD and CAADP)
3. Supporting implementation of Africa’s
growth agenda
AFRICA IS GROWING AGAIN
Agriculture, value added (annual % grow th)
9
6
3
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
-3
1982
0
1980
Percent (%)
GDP grow th (annual %)
GROWTH IS SPREADING
Agriculture GROWTH IS SPREADING
TRADE PERFORMANCE IS PICKING UP
125
160
155
150
145
140
120
115
135
130
125
120
110
105
100
115
110
105
100
95
95
2001
2002
2003
World
2004
2005
Africa
Index of Ag. Export Volume (2000 =100)
2001
2002
2003
World
2004
2005
Africa
Index of Ag. Export Value (2000 =100)
10
0
Source: 2006 Worldwide Governance Indicators, The World Bank, 2007
South Africa
Botswana
Namibia
Ghana
Madagascar
Senegal
Lesotho
Mozambique
Tanzania
Rwanda
Mali
Benin
Uganda
Ethiopia
Gabon
Mauritania
Kenya
Swaziland
Gambia
Zambia
Niger
Burkina Faso
Malawi
Cameroon
Nigeria
Djibouti
Sierra Leone
Sudan
Guinea-Bissau
Angola
Eritrea
Burundi
Congo
Eq. Guinea
Chad
Liberia
Central Africa Republic
Cote d'Ivoire
Guinea
Zimbabwe
Togo
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Somalia
Percentile Index (%)
More and more countries are witnessing changes towards
improved ‘Government Effectiveness’
70
60
1996
50
2006
Mauritania
20
Madagascar
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Cote d'Ivoire
40
Ghana
30
Eritrea
Nigeria
Sudan Angola
Zimbabwe
Chad
Liberia
T ogo
T anzania
Niger
Congo, Dem. Rep.
The world food system globalizes
top 10: $37 bln
Food
retailers
Agricultural
top 10: $363 bln
top 10:$777bln
• Nestle
• Cargill
• Unilever
• ADM
• Kraft Foods
• Wal-Mart
• Carrefour
• Royal Ahold
• Metro AG
• Tesco
value added:
$1,315 bln
450 million
>100 ha: 0.5%
< 2 ha: 85%
Source: von Braun, 2005
$4,000 billion
• Syngenta
• Bayer
• BASF
• Monsanto
• DuPont
Farms
Food
processors
and traders
Consumers
Agricultural
input
industry
Prices: Agricultural and energy
prices increasingly correlate
500
450
400
350
Corn
Rice
Sugar
Oil seeds
Crude oil (right)
300
70
60
50
40
250
30
200
150
20
100
10
50
0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
0
…and price variations are up
Source: IMF 2007; OECD 2005; World Bank 2007
Climate change & energy threats
• By 2020, 75-250 million people expected to be
exposed to drought (mainly in Africa)
- Adverse effect on livelihoods & food
security
- Exacerbate malnutrition & water-related
problems
- By 2020, yields could be reduced by up to
50% (rain-fed agriculture)
Energy: biofuels - food / biomass competition
Higher food prices (scenarios: 30 to 80% + prices)
Instabilities increase (new risks for Africa’s poor)
Looking beneath the dollar-a-day
line
Subjacent poor
($0.75 and <$1):
485 mln in 2004
LAC
19 mln
EAP
109.3 mln
ECA
3 mln
MENA
3.3 mln
SSA
87.0 mln
SA
263.6 mln
Medial poor
($0.50 and <$0.75):
323 mln in 2004
LAC
16.6 mln
ECA 1.1 mln
EAP
51 mln
MENA
0.9 mln
SSA
90.2 mln
SA
162.9 mln
Ultra poor
(<$0.50):
162 mln in 2004
LAC
MENA
ECA 0.4 mln
11.5 mln
0.2 mln
EAP
8.8 mln
SA
19.7 mln
SSA
121 mln
Source: Ahmed et al. IFPRI, 2007
The share of the poorest in SSA is
growing
Change in the share of poor living below .50$/day 1990-2004
0.5
0.06
0.14
% point change
0
-0.5
Developing World
-0.7
-1
East Asia & Pacific
-0.9
South Asia
-1.5
-1.4
L America & Caribb.
Sub-Saharan Africa
-2
Source: Ahmed et al. 2007
MDG progress (GHI), growth &
governance
GHI progress indicator
1.00
Brazil
Ghana
Ethiopia
0.75
0.50
Nigeria
0.25
0.00
-10
-0.25
Kenya
-5
China
India
Uganda
Tanzania
0
5
10
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
Congo DR
Annual growth rate in GNI per capita, 1990-2004 (in %)
low government effectiveness (1998)
higher governnment effectiveness (1998)
Source: Wiesmann 2007.
Low gov. effectiveness is assigned to countries in the lowest
quartile of Worldwide Governance Indicators.
What explains the high poverty and
hunger incidences in Africa?
1. Low agricultural productivity and output growth
2. Poor access to infrastructure, production inputs
and rural services (e.g. health and education)
3. Loss of competitiveness in domestic, regional and
world markets
4. Years of neglect of food staples and livestock
sectors
5. Inadequate public and private sector investments,
especially in rural areas
6. Weak enabling environment: governance,
institutions, standards and regulations
7. Low capacity to deal with vulnerabilities to political
instability and natural shocks (droughts, disease
and pests, health, such as HIV/AIDS and Malaria)
The Strategic Square
CONFLICT
& Governance
Innovation
& Capacity
ECONOMIC
GROWTH;
Agriculture
Services &
infrastructure
THE COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
MAIN FEATURES & PRINCIPLES
 AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH TO REACH MDG1
 TARGET GOAL OF 6% SECTOR GROWTH RATE
 INCREASED PUBLIC INVESTMENT (10% BUDGET SHARE)
 FOUR MAIN PILLARS TO GUIDE INVESTMENT
 Land and water management
 Agribusiness and Infrastructure
 Hunger and social safety nets
 Science and Technology
 POLICY EFFICIENCY, PEER REVIEW, ACCOUNTABILITY
 EXPLOITATION OF REGIONAL COMPLEMENTARITIES
 INCLUSIVENESS: FARMERS, AGRIBUSINESS, CIVIL SOCIETY
Supporting implementation of
Africa’s growth agenda
• Analytical Agenda and M&E of CAADP
• Piloting Country Strategy Support
• Establishment of ReSAKSS
• Providing Roundtable Support to Implement
CADDP at the National Level
Analytical Agenda and M&E for CAADP
Implementation
Developing Analytical Agenda to Support
• Pillar 1: Land and water management
• Pillar 2:Regional integration and trade,
market access, agribusiness, and rural
infrastructure
• Pillar 3: Food security
• Pillar 4: Agricultural research and
technology
PROGRESS TOWARDS CAADP GROWTH TARGET
Growth Rate (%)
18
15
2000-2003
12
2003-2005
CAADP 6% target
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
1
3
5
7
9
11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37
Sample of countries (Total =37)
Source: Fan et al., IFPRI (forthcoming)
Rwanda
Guinea-Bissau
Ghana
Niger
Burundi
Togo
Tanzania
Burkina Faso
Swaziland
Zambia
Central African Republic
Senegal
Nigeria
Benin
Mozambique
Cameroon
Malawi
Ethiopia
Kenya
Uganda
Mauritania
Cote d'Ivoire
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
Gambia
Chad
Mali
Namibia
Madagascar
Guinea
Percent of Ag to Total Spending (%)
Progress against CAADP 10% goal (2004)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Analysis Support
• 1. How agricultural growth vs. non
agricultural growth contributes to national
development goals
• 2. How much investment is needed to
support needed agricultural growth
• 3. How to allocate agricultural investment
• 4. What are other complementary polices
are needed to help the poor who will not
benefit from agricultural growth
• 5. How to reform the governance structure
Ghana
Ghana
Index (1985=100)
150
125
Agriculture
Producivity
100
Household
Income
Poverty
75
Hunger
Source: IFPRI work in Progress
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
50
GHI Trends in Africa 1981 - 2003
Sub-Saharan Africa, Trends 1981-2003
50
45
Global Hunger Index
40
Ethiopia
35
Zambia
30
Mozambique
25
Malawi
Kenya
20
Senegal
Uganda
15
Ghana
10
5
0
0
500
1,000
1,500
Gross National Income per capita
2,000
2,500
Conclusions: New partnering with Africa
•African economic growth accelerates
•Agriculture is essential element of growth
•Institutional reforms for markets & infrastructure
Strategic support at
National and
regional level
Facilitating learning
across countries