Structured Decision Making & Rapid Prototyping
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Transcript Structured Decision Making & Rapid Prototyping
Designing Landscapes
for Sustainable Bird
Populations
Structured Decision Making Workshop
Atlantic Coast Joint Venture
Presentation Outline
Strategic habitat conservation?
Project Goals
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Vision for the final products
Process – structured decision making
Decision support tool roadmap
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Defining and dividing the problem
Priority birds
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Landscape characteristics
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Objectives – bird habitat conservation
Alternatives – selecting focal (surrogate) species
Consequences of the selection
Objectives
Mapping priorities
Strategic Habitat Conservation (SHC)
Biological
Planning
Applied
Research
Conservation
Design
Monitoring
Program
Implementation
Strategic Habitat Conservation?
Biological planning
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Ecological context (Threats and limiting factors)
Selecting surrogate bird species (SDM)
Population objectives – SAMBI Plan
Species-habitat relationships – Jaime, Steve, Matt
Conservation Design
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Habitat required to meet the population objectives - ???
Desired landscape configuration (SDM)
Decision support tool
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Where will we get the best response from conservation?
LMV JV decision support tool
One focal habitat –
bottomland hardwood
forests
Landscape dominated by
agriculture
Goal: target populations of
surrogate forest bird species
Primary means
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Reforestation
Similar projects
EGCP JV open pine decision tool
One focal habitat
Complex landscape
Goal: target populations of
surrogate open pine bird
species
Primary means:
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Longleaf restoration
Improved management of
existing habitat
Habitat acquisition
Vision for the final product(s)
Multiple habitats
Complex, dynamic landscape
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Goal: target populations of many surrogate bird
species
Product(s)
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Urban growth
Climate change
Map of highest priority areas for each habitat type
How do we get there?
Structured Decision Making
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References
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Process for making smart choices
Gregory, R.S., and R.L. Keeney. 2002. Making smarter environmental
decisions. Journal American Water Resources Association. 38(6):16011612
Hammond, J.S., R. L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa. Smart choices: A practical
guide to making better decisions, by Harvard Business School Press,
Boston, Massachusetts, 1999.
Introduction to SDM
Important decisions are made in any action or policy
Smart decisions are fundamental to success
Tools available to professionals:
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Ignore basic principles of sound decision making
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Economics
Psychology
Statistics
Biology and ecology
Project management
Not just an “art”
Five core elements - PrOACT
Problem – Solve the right problem
Objectives – Describe the desired outcomes
Alternatives – Consider any reasonable actions that
achieve the outcomes
Consequences – Describe how well alternatives
meet objectives
Tradeoffs – Evaluate consequences of each
alternative
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Core of structured decision making (Hammond et al., 1999).
Three additional elements - URL
Uncertainty
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Risk Tolerance
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Understand the limits of the data and models
Low tolerance ~ grave consequences
High tolerance ~ less serious consequences
Linked Decisions
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Do choices made today influence choices to make
tomorrow?
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More advanced concepts
Reasons for SDM process
Group psychology encourages conformity
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Results in erroneous choices
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Fail to address individuals’ priorities
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Don’t explore minority views
Real decisions left to someone else
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Managers provide “competent options”
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Dealing with complexity -> administrators
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Neglects importance of individual decision making
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Overlooks diversity of approaches/perspectives