Transcript 1997 Crude Price Basis / EO Guidelines

North American Economic and Petroleum Outlook
John C. Felmy
Chief Economist and Director
Policy Analysis and Statistics
American Petroleum Institute
[email protected]
June 1, 2002
What is needed in a Comprehensive National Energy
Policy?
• Conservation and energy efficiency are important but are
insufficient to meet our future needs.
• Renewable energy is an important but small source of energy.
Until it’s cost is reduced, it will continue to be a small source.
• Even with improved efficiency and more renewable energy, we
will still need more conventional energy – oil, coal, natural gas
and nuclear.
U.S. Energy Demand and Production
100.00
90.00
Imports - 26.3%
80.00
Imports - 21.2 %
Imports - 9.3 %
70.00
Production
60.00
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Quadrillion Btus
Demand
Petroleum balances
30.00
25.07
61%
25.00
19.74
53%
21.27
59%
26.66
62%
23.21
61%
million barrels per day
20.00
16.64
15.3
Net imports
14.27
15.00
10.42
NGLs,gain,other
12.49
Crude production
10.00
3.25
3.38
5.08
5.56
5.63
DOE 2010
DOE 2015
DOE 2020
2.41
2.58
2.95
5.87
5.38
DOE 2000
DOE 2005
5.00
0.00
Energy Consumption by Fuel - 2000 and 2020
7%
6%
Petroleum
7%
8%
39%
Natural Gas
40%
21%
22%
Coal
24%
99.29 Quadrillion
BTUs -- 2000
Nuclear Power
Renewables
Source: Department of Energy/ Energy Information Administration
26%
130.85 Quadrillion
BTUs -- 2020
Renewable energy 2000
Res/Com Wood-0.51%
0.51%
Ind/EU Wood-2.34%
3.04%
MSW-0.28%
2.34%
Ethanol-0.14%
0.05%
0.30%
0.28%
0.14%
0.05%
6.67 Quadrillion
BTUs
Solar-0.05%
Geothermal-0.30%
Wind-0.05%
Hydroelectric-3.04%
Electricity Generation Shares - 2000
0.57%
0.24%
0.39%
0.03%
7.77%
0.15%
Coal
Petroleum
21.47%
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydropower
Geothermal 0.39
54.84%
MSW 0.57
Biomass 0.24
Solar 0.03
Wind 0.15
11.89%
2.66%
Electricity Generation Shares - 2020
0.62%
0.31%
0.70%
0.04%
0.48%
6.02%
14.08%
Coal
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Nuclear
48.62%
Hydropower
Geothermal 0.70
MSW 0.62
Biomass 0.31
Solar 0.04
Wind 0.48
28.38%
0.76%
Energy Consumption by Sector - 2000 and 2020
11%
24%
25%
8%
Residential
10%
9%
Commercial
28%
Industrial
27%
Transportation
28%
Electric Power
99.29 Quadrillion
BTUs -- 2000
Source: Department of Energy/ Energy Information Administration
30%
130.85 Quadrillion
BTUs -- 2020
Natural Gas Consumption by Sector - 2000 and 2020
18%
19%
22%
Residential
31%
Commercial
8%
14%
Transportation
37%
22.83 Quadrillion
BTUs -- 2000
14%
Industrial
Electric Power
Source: Department of Energy/ Energy Information Administration
6%
31%
32.79 Quadrillion
BTUs -- 2020
Electricity Consumption by Sector - 2000 and 2020
1.0%
0.5%
Residential
35%
31%
29%
35%
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
33%
3426 Billion
KWHs -- 2000
Source: Department of Energy/ Energy Information Administration
36%
4917 Billion
KWHs -- 2020
Petroleum Use - 2000
Residential
4%
Electric Utility
Commerical
2%
2%
Industrial
24%
Transportation
68%
Transportation Energy Use
0%
1% 1%
3%
2% 1%
Light -Dut y Vehicles
11%
Commercial Light Trucks
Freight Trucks
4%
Railroad
1%
Domest ic Shipping
Int ernat ional Shipping
2%
Air
56%
Milit ary Use
Bus Transport at ion
Rail Transport at ion
16%
Recreat ional Boat s
Lubricant s
2%
Pipeline Fuel
Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2001*
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)
Country
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Norway
Iran
Venezuela
United Arab
Emirates
Nigeria
Iraq
Kuwait
Mexico
Libya
Algeria
Net Exports
(million barrels
per day)
7.38
4.76
3.22
2.74
2.60
2.09
2.00
2.00
1.80
1.65
1.24
1.24
Major Sources of U.S. Petroleum Imports, 2001*
(all volumes in million barrels per day)
Crude Oil
Petroleum
Total Oil Imports
Imports
Product Imports
Canada
1.79
1.32
0.47
Saudi Arabia
1.66
1.61
0.05
Venezuela
1.54
1.28
0.26
Mexico
1.42
1.38
0.04
Nigeria
0.86
0.81
0.04
Iraq
0.78
0.78
0.00
Norway
0.33
0.27
0.06
Angola
0.32
0.31
0.07
United Kingdom
0.31
0.23
0.08
Total Imports
11.62
9.15
2.47
Major Suppliers of U.S. Imported Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (MMbpd)
Country
Imports in 1985
Total Crude
Imports in 1995
Total Crude
Imports in 2000
Total Crude
Canada
Saudi Arabia
Venezuela
Mexico
Nigeria
Iraq
United Kingdom
Norway
Colombia
Angola
Virgin Islands
Kuwait
0.770
0.168
0.605
0.816
0.293
0.046
0.310
0.032
0.023
0.110
0.247
0.021
1.332
1.344
1.480
1.068
0.627
0.000
0.383
0.273
0.219
0.367
0.278
0.218
1.807
1.572
1.546
1.373
0.896
0.620
0.366
0.343
0.342
0.301
0.291
0.272
0.468
0.132
0.306
0.715
0.280
0.046
0.278
0.031
0.000
0.104
0.000
0.004
1.040
1.260
1.151
1.027
0.621
0.000
0.341
0.258
0.207
0.360
0.000
0.213
1.348
1.523
1.223
1.313
0.875
0.620
0.291
0.302
0.318
0.295
0.000
0.263
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
Percent of Imports
Persian Gulf Share of Imports
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
Thousand Btu
Energy Consumption per 1996 Dollar of GDP
19
History - EIA
15
9
EIA AEO Forecast
17
- 42%
13
11
- 27%
7
US petroleum demand and refining capacity
20.0
Demand and Cpacity: million barrels per day
19.0
18.0
Demand
17.0
16.0
15.0
Refinery capacity
14.0
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Regulatory Avalanche
EIA Forecast to 2020
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Real Gross Domestic Product is projected to increase by 79 percent
Total energy consumption is forecasted to increase by 32 percent
Petroleum demand is projected to increase by 35 percent
Natural gas demand is projected to increase by 48 percent
Coal demand is projected to increase by 22 percent
Electricity demand is projected to increase by 43 percent
Renewable energy supply is projected to increase by 38 percent
Nuclear energy is projected to decline by 7 percent
Energy efficiency (output per unit of energy) is projected to improve by 26
percent
EIA Forecast to 2020
• Net petroleum imports are projected to increase, providing 62 percent of U.S.
demand in 2020.
• Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, where efficiency
improvements are more than offset by growing travel demand and petroleum’s
market share increases slightly.
• Crude oil production falls by 3 percent.
• Imports of crude oil grow by 24 percent.
• Petroleum product imports increase by 169 percent.
• Refinery capacity expands from 16.6 to 18.2 million barrels per day
Miles per Gallon and Miles per Vehicle
13000
22.0
21.0
12000
20.0
19.0
11000
18.0
10000
17.0
MPV
16.0
9000
15.0
8000
14.0
1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Miles per gallon
Miles per Vehicle
MPG
Effects on US Import Dependence
import share of consumption
66%
64%
Increased Fuel Efficiency -2%
62%
ANWR
60%
-5%
58%
Other
ANS -2%
56%
54%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
19
05
19
08
19
11
19
14
19
17
19
20
19
23
19
26
19
29
19
32
19
35
19
38
19
41
19
44
19
47
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
Sunspots - 50 year avg
80
0.00
70
-0.05
60
Sunspots
50
30
-0.10
-0.15
-0.20
40
-0.25
-0.30
-0.35
Temp - 50 year avg - Celsius
Climate Change – What is happening?
Sunspots and Temperature
0.10
0.05
Recommendations
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
R&D in Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
Promotion of energy saving using existing programs such as EPA’s Energy Star
Adequately fund LIHEAP and Weatherization
Expand the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Develop new domestic sources of oil and natural gas
Streamline regulations for energy infrastructure development
Reform unilateral economic sanctions
Reform tax code to align it with economic reality
Educate Americans on the realities of energy use and production
Robustness, Redundancy and Diversity