Transcript Document
Using GIS to visualize, analyze and forecast seismic hazards Serkan Bozkurt -0.6 0.0 bars 0.6 animation animation animation animation 1992 M=7.3 Landers shock increases stress at Big Bear Landers Big Bear Los Angeles First 3 hr of Landers aftershocks plotted 1992 M=7.3 Landers shock promotes the M=6.5 Big Bear shock 3 hr later Landers Big Bear Los Angeles First 3 hr of Landers aftershocks plotted …and promotes the M=7.1 Hector Mine shock 7 yr later Hector Mine Los Angeles First 7 yr of aftershocks plotted Earthquake Probability Investigation of Greater Tokyo New ways to forecast seismic shaking, and how they stack up in Tokyo Shinji Toda, Masanobu Shishikura, and Kenji Satake Yoshimitsu Okada Takuya Nishimura and Takeshi Sagiya Ross Stein, Serkan Bozkurt, Bill Bakun, Fred Pollitz, Tom Parsons, Marleen Nyst, and Elliot Grunewald Junichi Nakajima and Akira Hasegawa Nobuo Hamada Martin Bertogg, Mariagiovanna Guatteri, Silvio Tschudi, and Atsuhiro Dodo Fault model from Wald and Somerville Fault model from M. Matsu’ura et al. Our model for the 1923 earthquake is based on newly discovered geodetic data Fault slip (cm) Slip direction Tokyo Marleen Nyst Fred Pollitz et al (2005) and Pollitz et al (2005) Butfrom theNyst 1703 earthquake was much larger Historical quakes from Usami (2003) reassessed with powerful computer technique Kanto seismic corridor Bill Bakun Elliot Grunewald from Bakun (2005) and Grunewald (in press 2006) Shinji Toda Ross Stein animation Picture 30-yr earthquake probabilities for greater Tokyo Team Tokyo Study Poisson 1 M≥7.1 within 50 km of Tokyo (1855 type) 2 M≥7.9 within 100 km of Tokyo (1923 type) Combined (I≥6 or PGA>0.95 g in Tokyo) Renewal 20 >35 11 0.5 29% >35% 1 2 from Stein et al. (2006) Tokyo street scene in 1855 Study area is divided in to 5x5 km cells Creating the annual frequency-intensity model data for one cell How well the model fits local data How well the model fits local data How well the model fits local data Turning cell data into maps What about site effects and proximity to fault ruptures? GIS is one of the most powerful tools to visualize, analyze, and enhance earth science information. Serkan Bozkurt (USGS, Menlo Park) Residents of Edo appeal to the god Kashima to subdue the catfish, mythical source of the 1855 Ansei-Edo earthquake