Transcript OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo Projection System

Favignana, 28-29 September 2009
OECD-FAO Aglink-CO.SI.MO.
Projection System
by Stefania Vannuccini
Fishery Statistician (Commodities)
FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Information and Statistics Service
AGLINK MODEL
• OECD
• Dynamic, partial equilibrium supply-demand
model
• Yearly basis since early 1990s
• Medium-term projections
• Agricultural key commodities
• Assumptions
• Coverage
• Close collaboration with member countries
• Influence of agricultural policy
CO.SI.MO MODEL
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FAO World Food Model
FAO COmmodity SImulation MOdel
Yearly basis since 2004
Updating Cycle
Coverage
Commodities
Macro economic assumptions
Parameters
OECD-FAO Projection Work
• Joint outlook preparation between
OECD and FAO
• Started in 2004
• Annual process
• Expansion of OECD Aglink model to
developing countries
• Utilize global expertise
Aglink – CO.SI.MO.
• Partial Equilibrium Model
• Projection systems to examine future
potential impacts
– Policy impacts
– Economic scenarios
– Link to food security indicators
Aglink – CO.SI.MO.
Key factors of assumptions
• World markets for agricultural commodities are
competitive
• Domestically produced and traded commodities
as perfect substitutes by buyers and sellers.
• Importers do not distinguish commodities by
country of origin as it is not a spatial model
• Non agricultural markets, including fish, are
treaded exogenously to the model
Aglink – CO.SI.MO.
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About 15 000 equations
40 individual countries
19 regions
About 40 commodities
About 26 000 variables
17 world clearing prices
Simulation of market determination of
equilibrium prices
AGLINK-CO.SI.MO. COMMODITIES
Wheat
Beef
Coarse Grains
Sheepmeat Whole Milk Powder
Rice
Oilseeds
Vegetable Oils
Pigmeat
Poultry
Eggs
Oilseed Meals
Sugar
Roots and Tubers Cotton
(Cosimo)
Skim Milk Powder
Cheese
Butter
Fresh Dairy Products
AGLINK COUNTRIES
Argentina
EU-12
China
Brazil
EU-15
Japan
Canada
EU-27
Korea, Rep. of
Mexico
Hungary
Australia
USA
Norway
New Zealand
Poland
Russian Fed.
Switzerland
CO.SI.MO. COUNTRIES
Algeria
Indonesia
Saudi Arabia
Asia Pacific – LDCs
Iran
South Africa
Asia Pacific – Other
Korea, Rep. of
Southern Africa – LDCs
Bangladesh
Malaysia
Southern Africa – Other
Central America – LDCs
Mozambique
Tanzania
Central America - Other
Nigeria
Thailand
Chile
North Africa – Other
Turkey
Colombia
Other CIS
Ukraine
East Africa – LDCs
Other Eastern Europe
Uruguay
East Africa – Other
Other South America
Viet Nam
Egypt
Pakistan
West Africa – LDCs
Ghana
Paraguay
West Africa – Other
India
Philippines
Data Requirements
• Projections based on a calendar year (exc.
crops)
• Annual time series for:
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prices (usually export prices)
supply (area, yield, animal numbers...)
demand (food, feed, crush...)
trade (exports, imports)
policy variables (tariffs, CAP...)
macroeconomic data (GDP, GDPD, private
consumption expenditure deflator, exchange rates,
Brent crude oil price)
– Commodity Production Cost Index
PARAMETERS/DATA
• World Food Model, FAPRI, USDA, OECD, expert
estimates, literature
• Source of data:
– Databases trade and market division FAO (EST)
– FAOSTAT, national data, prices
– OECD, EU Commission, USDA, national sources
(politics)
– COMTRADE (USDA), IDB and CTS (WTO), TRAINS
(UNTAD), WITS (WB/UNCTAD), AMAD
– IMF
– UN population
– Reuters
– OECD questionnaires
Projections and elasticities
• Functional relationships linking supply and
demand to prices are, in most cases, linear
in the logarithms of the variables
• Equation coefficients are partial elasticities
• Source of elasticities
• Global market projections=Baselines
Scenarios
• The baseline provide a benchmark for
alternative scenarios
• Scenarios try to address questions such
as:
– What are the likely impacts of market stocks?
– What are the likely impacts of domestic policy
changes?
– What are the likely impacts of multilateral
policy changes?
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Country views are the starting point
• AGLINK CO.SI.MO is used to get a
consistent and coherent picture
• Model outcomes adjusted through expert
opinions
• Final reviews in OECD commodity working
groups
• The datasets are available at:
www.agri-outlook.org
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Yearly
• Preparation: November-April
• Projections and related market analysis for
some fifteen agricultural products over a ten
year horizon
• The result is a plausible set of conditional
projections
• It shows how these markets are influenced
by economic developments and government
policies and highlights some of the risks and
uncertainties that may influence market
outcomes
Adding fish to the AGLINK-COSIMO
• Inclusion of fish in the AGLINK – CO.SI.MO.
model and in the FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Species
• Elements
• Capture-Aquaculture for supply
• Price index