Transcript Oil Load Serving Study Update

Oil Load Serving Study Update
August 18th, 2011
OIL LOAD SERVING STUDY AREA
OIL LOAD STUDY AREA COOP LOAD FORECAST COMPARISON
1600
1400
1200
1000
July 2011 forecast
800
April 2011 forecast
July 2011 with 20% contingency
600
400
200
0
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
WILLISTON LOAD
POCKET
Williston Load Pocket Load Forecasts
800
700
600
500
April 2011 forecast
400
july 2011 forecast
July 2011 forecast +20%
300
200
100
0
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
ASSUMPTIONS
•MCDC LIMITED TO 100MW E-W
•MDU PEAKERS OFF
•LEWIS & CLARK GEN ON
•WIND OFF
•CULBERSTON OFF
•BUT AVAILABLE FOR PRIOR OUTAGES
•FORT PECK GENERATION = 35MW, MAX ~135MW
•WINTER PEAK LOADS
CHALLENGES
•VOLTAGE STABILITY
•LOW VOLTAGE, POWER QUALITY, POOR “PROFILE”
•REGIONAL LOAD INCREASES
•115KV LINE OVERLOADS
•MAINLY FEEDING WILLISTON POCKET
EXAMPLE VOLTAGE STABILITY “PV” CURVE
Watford City 115kV Voltage
AVS-CCR 345kV Outage, MCDC at 20MW East-West
Culbertson = 0MW
1.04
Williston SVC
1.02
1
Voltage
0.98
0.96
115kV Additions
Phase 1 Caps
0.94
0.92
0.9
Base Case
0.88
0.86
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
Study Area Load MW
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
EXISTING SYSTEM
Charlie Creek-Williston at 115kV
Charlie Creek
345kV Line
230kV Line
115kV Line
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
1600
1400
1200
BASELINE FORECAST
MW
1000
800
710
Existing System Limit Until July 2012
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
Xcel Load at Souris
2013
2014
MDU Load in Study Area
2015
2016
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2017
2018
Coop Minot Area Load
2019
2020
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
2021
July 2012
Charlie Creek-Williston at 230kV
CAPCITOR ADDITIONS
Location
Total Size
Notes:
Dickinson 115
30 MVAR
Per the Keystone XL initial load requirement.
2 x 15MVAR for switching
Logan 115
30MVAR
2 x 15 MVAR
Blaisdel 115
30 MVAR
2 x 15 MVAR
Dunning 115
20 MVAR
2 x 10MVAR
Kenniston 115
12 MVAR
2 x 6 MVAR
Watford City 115
30 MVAR
2 x 15MVAR for switching
State Line 115
15 MVAR
1 x 15 MVAR
SW Minot 115
10 MVAR
1 x 10MVAR
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
1600
1400
Williston-CCR 230
& Cap Additions
1209
1200
BASELINE FORECAST
MW
1000
800
710
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
Xcel Load at Souris
2013
2014
MDU Load in Study Area
2015
2016
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2017
2018
Coop Minot Area Load
2019
2020
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
2021
2013
Networked 115kV
Des Lacs
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
1600
Networked 115kV
1400
1252
1209
1200
MW
1000
800
710
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
Xcel Load at Souris
2013
2014
MDU Load in Study Area
2015
2016
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2017
2018
Coop Minot Area Load
2019
2020
2021
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
Williston SVC
1600
1400
1209
1301
1252
1200
BASELINE FORECAST
MW
1000
800
710
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
Xcel Load at Souris
2013
2014
MDU Load in Study Area
2015
2016
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2017
2018
Coop Minot Area Load
2019
2020
2021
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
RUN CULBERTSON PRE-CONTINGENT
1600
1400
1209
1252
1301
1353
1200
BASELINE FORECAST
MW
1000
800
710
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
Xcel Load at Souris
2013
2014
MDU Load in Study Area
2015
2016
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2017
2018
Coop Minot Area Load
2019
2020
2021
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
SYSTEM INTACT LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
ADD 345KV
?
1600
1400
1209
1252
1301
1353
1200
BASELINE FORECAST
MW
1000
800
710
600
400
200
0
2011
2012
Xcel Load at Souris
2013
2014
MDU Load in Study Area
2015
2016
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2017
2018
Coop Minot Area Load
2019
2020
2021
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
Prior Outages?
AVS-CHARLIE CREEK 345KV PRIOR OUTAGE
LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
1600
1400
1200
BASELINE FORECAST
1064
1016
MW
1000
800
600
Williston-CCR 230
& Cap Additions
Networked 115kV
400
200
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Xcel Load at Souris
MDU Load in Study Area
Coop Minot Area Load
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
2018
2019
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2020
2021
CHARLIE CREEK-WATFORD CITY 230KV PRIOR OUTAGE
LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
1600
1400
1234
1200
984
Networked 115kV
MW
1000
BASELINE FORECAST
800
600
Williston-CCR 230
& Cap Additions
400
200
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Xcel Load at Souris
MDU Load in Study Area
Coop Minot Area Load
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
2018
2019
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2020
2021
LELAND OLDS-LOGAN 230KV PRIOR OUTAGE
LOAD SERVING CAPABILITY
1800
1600
1400
1234
1200
974
Networked 115kV
MW
1000
BASELINE FORECAST
800
600
Williston-CCR 230
& Cap Additions
400
200
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Xcel Load at Souris
MDU Load in Study Area
Coop Minot Area Load
Coop West ND, East MT Area Load
2018
2019
Coop Bottineau Area Load
2020
2021
QUESTIONS?